The Utility of SAPROF-YV Ratings for Predicting Recidivism in Male Youth Under Community Supervision in Singapore

BackgroundViolence risk assessment in schizophrenia relies heavily on criminal history factors.AimsTo investigate which criminal history factors are most strongly associated with violent crime in schizophrenia.MethodA total of 13 806 individuals (8891 men and 4915 women) with two or more hospital admissions for schizophrenia were followed up for violent convictions. Multivariate hazard ratios for 15 criminal history factors included in different risk assessment tools were calculated. The incremental predictive validity of these factors was estimated using tests of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.ResultsOver a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 17.3% of men (n=1535) and 5.7% of women (n=281) were convicted of a violent offence. Criminal history factors most strongly associated with subsequent violence for both men and women were a previous conviction for a violent offence; for assault, illegal threats and/or intimidation; and imprisonment. However, only a previous conviction for a violent offence was associated with incremental predictive validity in both genders following adjustment for young age and comorbid substance use disorder.ConclusionsClinical and actuarial approaches to assess violence risk can be improved if included risk factors are tested using multiple measures of performance.

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The reliability and validity of the SAPROF among forensic mental health patients

10.32920/ryerson.14665530.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sandra Oziel

Keyword(s):

Mental Health ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Management ◽

Protective Factors ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Violence Risk ◽

Forensic Mental Health ◽

Institutional Misconduct ◽

Forensic Psychologists ◽

Mental Health Patients

Assessing and managing level of risk among forensic mental health patients is a primary role of clinical forensic psychologists. Forensic assessments are focused on risk factors and deficits, whereas patient strengths and protective factors are either partially included or overlooked altogether by forensic psychologists. As a result, less is known about protective factors in general and how they may serve to inform risk management practices. The Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for Violence Risk (SAPROF) is the first tool to exclusively rely on protective factors and was investigated for the current study. The psychometric properties of the SAPROF were examined using a sample of 50 Canadian patients found Not Criminally Responsible (NCR) at a psychiatric hospital using both file information and semi-structured interviews. Outcome variables included risk management decisions (change in privilege level and security level) and indicators of recidivism (psychiatric medication administration, institutional misconduct and disposition breaches). The study found some evidence for intrarater and interrater reliability, construct validity, predictive validity and incremental predictive validity. The SAPROF approached significance for adding incremental predictive validity to the HCR-20 V3, a measure of violence risk, for disposition breaches and institutional misconduct, and effect sizes doubled. Given that the addition of the SAPROF increased the accuracy of the violence risk assessment, there are considerable implications for informing clinical practice. Implications for risk assessment, treatment planning, intervention and risk management decisions implemented by review boards and clinical practitioners are discussed. It is recommended that the SAPROF be added as an adjunct measure to risk assessment batteries and included in hospital reports, given that it predicted several patient behaviours.

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An Exploratory Study of Recidivism Risk Assessment Instruments for Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses in Singapore

Sexual Abuse ◽

10.1177/1079063219884575 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 107906321988457

Author(s):

I Ting Tsao ◽

Chi Meng Chu

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Operating Characteristic ◽

Level Of Service ◽

Assessment Instruments ◽

Violence Risk ◽

Sexual Recidivism ◽

Psychopathy Checklist ◽

Sexual Offenses ◽

Psychopathy Checklist Revised

The predictive validity of risk assessment instruments for persons who have committed sexual offenses has improved tremendously in the last four decades, but the progress has been limited to Western offender populations. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of Static-99R, Stable-2007, Sexual Violence Risk-20, Version 2 (SVR-20 v2), Psychopathy Checklist—Revised (PCL-R), and Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) in predicting recidivism of persons convicted on sexual offenses in Singapore. Retrospective data of 134 such persons were used to code the various instruments. Receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed that combined Static-99R/Stable-2007 new standardized risk ratings, SVR-20 v2 total scores and risk ratings, PCL-R total scores, as well as LS/CMI total scores and risk ratings predicted sexual recidivism. All the aforementioned instruments’ total scores and risk ratings (if applicable) predicted any recidivism. However, risk profiles of this sample differed significantly from the normative Western samples.

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Risk Assessment in Juvenile and Young Adult Offenders: Predictive Validity of the SAVRY and SAPROF-YV

Assessment ◽

10.1177/1073191120959740 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 107319112095974

Author(s):

Anneke T. H. Kleeven ◽

Michiel de Vries Robbé ◽

Eva A. Mulder ◽

Arne Popma

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Young Adult ◽

Juvenile Offenders ◽

Protective Factors ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Developmental Differences ◽

Assessment Tools ◽

Violence Risk ◽

Risk Assessment Tools ◽

Dutch Sample

Most juvenile risk assessment tools heavily rely on a risk-focused approach. Less attention has been devoted to protective factors. This study examines the predictive validity of protective factors in addition to risk factors, and developmental differences in psychometric properties of juvenile risk assessment. For a national Dutch sample of 354 juvenile and young adult offenders (16-26 years) risk and protective factors were retrospectively assessed at discharge from seven juvenile justice institutions, using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk – Youth Version (SAPROF-YV). Results show moderate validity for both tools predicting general, violent, and nonviolent offending at different follow-up times. The SAPROF-YV provided incremental predictive validity over the SAVRY, and predictive validity was stronger for younger offenders. Evidently both the SAVRY and SAPROF-YV seem valid tools for the assessment of recidivism risk in juvenile and young adult offenders. Results highlight the importance of protective factors, especially in juvenile offenders, emphasizing the need for a balanced risk assessment.

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The predictive and incremental validity of ADHD beyond the VRAG-R in a high-risk sample of young offenders

European Archives of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience ◽

10.1007/s00406-021-01352-x ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Priscilla Gregório Hertz ◽

Marcus Müller ◽

Steffen Barra ◽

Daniel Turner ◽

Martin Rettenberger ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

High Risk ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Assessment Instrument ◽

Young Offenders ◽

Violent Recidivism ◽

General Recidivism ◽

Sum Scores ◽

Adhd Symptomatology ◽

Incremental Predictive Validity

AbstractThe VRAG-R is a well-established actuarial risk-assessment instrument, which was originally developed for assessing violent recidivism risk in adult male offenders. Whether or not the VRAG-R can also predict violent recidivism in young offenders is unclear so far. In the emergence of juvenile offending, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) seems to be of major importance suggesting that it could be relevant for risk assessment as well. Thus, we examined the predictive accuracy of the VRAG-R in a high-risk sample of N = 106 (M = 18.3 years, SD = 1.8) young offenders and assessed the incremental predictive validity of ADHD symptomatology beyond the VRAG-R. Within a mean follow-up time of M = 13 years (SD = 1.2), n = 65 (62.5%) young offenders recidivated with a violent offense. We found large effect sizes for the prediction of violent and general recidivism and re-incarcerations using the VRAG-R sum scores. Current ADHD symptomatology added incremental predictive validity beyond the VRAG-R sum scores concerning the prediction of general recidivism but not of violent recidivism. The results supported the use of the VRAG-R for predicting violent recidivism in young offenders. Because ADHD symptomatology improves the predictive performance of the VRAG-R regarding general recidivism, we argue that addressing ADHD symptoms more intensively in the juvenile justice system is of particular importance concerning a successful long-term risk management in adolescents and young adults.

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Static and Dynamic Assessment of Violence Risk Among Discharged Forensic Patients

Criminal Justice and Behavior ◽

10.1177/0093854819846526 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 46 (7) ◽

pp. 923-938 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Neil R. Hogan ◽

Mark E. Olver

Keyword(s):

Predictive Validity ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Dynamic Assessment ◽

Dynamic Change ◽

Area Under The Curve ◽

Violence Risk ◽

Change Scores ◽

Forensic Patients ◽

Violent Recidivism ◽

Incremental Predictive Validity

This study evaluated the predictive validity of structured instruments for violent recidivism among a sample of 82 patients discharged from a maximum security forensic psychiatric hospital. The incremental predictive validity of dynamic pre–post change scores was also assessed. Each of the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 Version 3 (HCR-20V3), Psychopathy Checklist–Revised, Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability, Violence Risk Scale (VRS), and Violence Risk Appraisal Guide–Revised was rated based on institutional files. The study instruments significantly predicted community-based violent recidivism (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.68-0.85), even after controlling for time at risk using Cox regression survival analyses. Dynamic change scores computed from the HCR-20V3 Relevance ratings and from the VRS also demonstrated incremental predictive validity, controlling for baseline scores. The findings provided support for the use of the study instruments to assess violence risk and for the consideration of dynamic changes in risk—provided that valid means of assessment are employed.

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The reliability and validity of the SAPROF among forensic mental health patients

10.32920/ryerson.14665530 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Sandra Oziel

Keyword(s):

Mental Health ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Management ◽

Protective Factors ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Violence Risk ◽

Forensic Mental Health ◽

Institutional Misconduct ◽

Forensic Psychologists ◽

Mental Health Patients

Assessing and managing level of risk among forensic mental health patients is a primary role of clinical forensic psychologists. Forensic assessments are focused on risk factors and deficits, whereas patient strengths and protective factors are either partially included or overlooked altogether by forensic psychologists. As a result, less is known about protective factors in general and how they may serve to inform risk management practices. The Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for Violence Risk (SAPROF) is the first tool to exclusively rely on protective factors and was investigated for the current study. The psychometric properties of the SAPROF were examined using a sample of 50 Canadian patients found Not Criminally Responsible (NCR) at a psychiatric hospital using both file information and semi-structured interviews. Outcome variables included risk management decisions (change in privilege level and security level) and indicators of recidivism (psychiatric medication administration, institutional misconduct and disposition breaches). The study found some evidence for intrarater and interrater reliability, construct validity, predictive validity and incremental predictive validity. The SAPROF approached significance for adding incremental predictive validity to the HCR-20 V3, a measure of violence risk, for disposition breaches and institutional misconduct, and effect sizes doubled. Given that the addition of the SAPROF increased the accuracy of the violence risk assessment, there are considerable implications for informing clinical practice. Implications for risk assessment, treatment planning, intervention and risk management decisions implemented by review boards and clinical practitioners are discussed. It is recommended that the SAPROF be added as an adjunct measure to risk assessment batteries and included in hospital reports, given that it predicted several patient behaviours.

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The Prediction of Youth Recidivism in a Spanish Roma Population by the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI)

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology ◽

10.1177/0306624x211022668 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 0306624X2110226

Author(s):

Aitana Gomis-Pomares ◽

Lidón Villanueva ◽

Juan E. Adrián

Keyword(s):

Case Management ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Assessment Tools ◽

Risk Scores ◽

Level Of Service ◽

Recidivism Rate ◽

Youth Offenders ◽

Disparate Impact ◽

Roma Population ◽

Risk Assessment Tools

Despite the increasing interest in the accuracy of youth risk assessment tools, the amount of research with ethnic minorities remains relatively modest. For this reason, the main goal of this study was to assess the predictive validity and disparate impact of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in a Spanish ethnic minority. The participants consisted of 88 Roma youth offenders and 135 non-Roma youth offenders, aged between 14 and 17 years old. Their risk of recidivism was assessed by means of the YLS/CMI Inventory and their recidivism rate was obtained from the Juvenile Justice Department. Results showed that the Inventory presented slightly lower predictive validity for the Roma group. Moreover, Roma juveniles presented higher risk scores and lower strength scores than non-Roma juveniles. These results supported the idea that professionals must therefore be aware of these cultural differences in predictive validity and the existent potentiality for disparate impact.

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