scholarly journals The predictive and incremental validity of ADHD beyond the VRAG-R in a high-risk sample of young offenders

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priscilla Gregório Hertz ◽  
Marcus Müller ◽  
Steffen Barra ◽  
Daniel Turner ◽  
Martin Rettenberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Young Offenders ◽  
Violent Recidivism ◽  
General Recidivism ◽  
Sum Scores ◽  
Adhd Symptomatology ◽  
Incremental Predictive Validity

AbstractThe VRAG-R is a well-established actuarial risk-assessment instrument, which was originally developed for assessing violent recidivism risk in adult male offenders. Whether or not the VRAG-R can also predict violent recidivism in young offenders is unclear so far. In the emergence of juvenile offending, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) seems to be of major importance suggesting that it could be relevant for risk assessment as well. Thus, we examined the predictive accuracy of the VRAG-R in a high-risk sample of N = 106 (M = 18.3 years, SD = 1.8) young offenders and assessed the incremental predictive validity of ADHD symptomatology beyond the VRAG-R. Within a mean follow-up time of M = 13 years (SD = 1.2), n = 65 (62.5%) young offenders recidivated with a violent offense. We found large effect sizes for the prediction of violent and general recidivism and re-incarcerations using the VRAG-R sum scores. Current ADHD symptomatology added incremental predictive validity beyond the VRAG-R sum scores concerning the prediction of general recidivism but not of violent recidivism. The results supported the use of the VRAG-R for predicting violent recidivism in young offenders. Because ADHD symptomatology improves the predictive performance of the VRAG-R regarding general recidivism, we argue that addressing ADHD symptoms more intensively in the juvenile justice system is of particular importance concerning a successful long-term risk management in adolescents and young adults.

The Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA)

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 717-733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy F. Mills ◽  
Daryl G. Kroner ◽  
Toni Hemmati
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Male Offenders ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Violent Recidivism ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Antisocial Attitudes ◽  
Adult Male Offenders

Recent research has demonstrated that antisocial attitudes and antisocial associates are among the better predictors of antisocial behavior. This study tests the predictive validity of the Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA) in a sample of adult male offenders. The MCAA comprises two parts: Part A is a quantified self-report measure of criminal friends, and Part B contains four attitude scales: Violence, Entitlement, Antisocial Intent, and Associates. The MCAA scales showed predictive validity for the outcomes of general and violent recidivism. In addition, the MCAA significantly improved the prediction of violent recidivism over an actuarial risk assessment instrument alone. Discussion centers on the contribution that antisocial attitudes and associates make to risk assessment.

An Examination of Changes in LSI-R Scores Over Time: Making the Case for Needs-Based Case Management

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 541-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melinda D. Schlager ◽  
Daniel Pacheco
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Management ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Community Corrections ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Change Scores ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Over Time

The Level of Service Inventory—Revised (LSI-R) is an actuarially derived risk assessment instrument with a demonstrated reputation and record of supportive research. It has shown predictive validity on several offender populations. Although a significant literature has emerged on the validity and use of the LSI-R, no research has specifically examined change scores or the dynamics of reassessment and its importance with respect to case management. Flores, Lowenkamp, Holsinger, and Latessa and Lowenkamp and Bechtel, among others, specifically identify the importance and need to examine LSI-R reassessment scores. The present study uses a sample of parolees ( N = 179) from various community corrections programs that were administered the LSI-R at two different times. Results indicate that both mean composite and subcomponent LSI-R scores statistically significantly decreased between Time 1 and Time 2. The practical, theoretical, and policy implications of these results are discussed.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment in Habitual Offenders With Substance Use Problems: A Quasi-Prospective Study of the Predictive Validity of the HKT-30

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (13) ◽  
pp. 4187-4195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Lammers ◽  
Lot Kokkelink ◽  
Hein deHaan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Substance Use ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Prospective Design ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Substance Use Problems ◽  
Scale Scores ◽  
Habitual Offenders

The predictive validity of the Dutch risk assessment instrument HKT-30 was investigated with a quasi-prospective design in a sample of habitual offenders with a substance use disorder (SUD). The study is reported according to RAGEE guidelines. The HKT-30 is an extension of the HCR-20. Files of 89 patients were coded and recidivism data were requested from the Ministry of Justice. Total scale scores and scores of the Clinical and Future scales were significantly predictive of recidivism for 1 and 2 years of time at risk, respectively. In contrast to earlier studies into recidivism, the H-scale had no predictive value. Regression analysis showed that the Clinical and Future scales contributed to the explanation of variance in recidivism, but not independently from each other. The conclusion is that the HKT-30 is a useful instrument for discovering risk factors and predicting recidivism for the population of habitual offenders with an SUD.

Development and Testing of the Danger Assessment for Law Enforcement (DA-LE)

2020 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 143-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jill Theresa Messing ◽  
Jacquelyn Campbell ◽  
Kelly Dunne ◽  
Suzanne Dubus
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Law Enforcement ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Partner Violence ◽  
Help Seeking ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Intimate Partner ◽  
Danger Assessment ◽  
Collaborative Interventions

Abstract One-third of women are victimized by intimate partner violence (IPV) in their lifetime; when women are killed, they are often murdered by a previously abusive intimate partner. Risk-informed collaborative interventions, such as domestic violence high risk teams (DVHRTs), use IPV risk assessment to identify and intervene in high-risk IPV cases. This study reports on the development and testing of the Danger Assessment for Law Enforcement (DA-LE), an IPV risk assessment intended for use with DVHRTs. Data were collected through structured telephone interviews from service-seeking survivors of IPV at two time points approximately seven to eight months apart. One sample (n = 570) was used to develop the DA-LE and another (n = 389) was used to test the predictive validity of the instrument using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC). The DA-LE predicted near fatal IPV on follow-up with similar or better accuracy than most validated IPV risk assessment instruments (AUC = 0.6864–0.7516). There were no significant differences in predictive validity based on survivor/offender race or ethnicity. The DA-LE has the potential to identify high-risk police-involved IPV cases. Risk-informed collaborative interventions may enhance outcomes for survivors of IPV by holding offenders accountable, increasing help seeking, and reducing future assaults.

The Predictive Validity of Risk Assessment with Violent Young Offenders

2003 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 688-708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosalind E. H. Catchpole ◽  
Heather M. Gretton
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Young Offenders

Professional Discretion and the Predictive Validity of a Juvenile Risk Assessment Instrument

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

The ability for professionals to override the results of an actuarial risk assessment tool is an essential part of effective correctional risk classification; however, little is known about how this important function affects the predictive validity of these tools. Using data from a statewide sample of juveniles from Ohio, this study examined the impact of professional adjustments on the predictive validity of a juvenile risk assessment instrument. This study found that the original and adjusted risk levels were significant predictors of recidivism, but the original risk levels were stronger predictors of recidivism than the adjusted risk levels that accounted for overrides.

scholarly journals Improving risk assessment in schizophrenia: epidemiological investigation of criminal history factors

2015 ◽  
Vol 206 (5) ◽  
pp. 424-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina Witt ◽  
Paul Lichtenstein ◽  
Seena Fazel
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Criminal History ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Hazard Ratios ◽  
Violent Offence ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Incremental Predictive Validity

BackgroundViolence risk assessment in schizophrenia relies heavily on criminal history factors.AimsTo investigate which criminal history factors are most strongly associated with violent crime in schizophrenia.MethodA total of 13 806 individuals (8891 men and 4915 women) with two or more hospital admissions for schizophrenia were followed up for violent convictions. Multivariate hazard ratios for 15 criminal history factors included in different risk assessment tools were calculated. The incremental predictive validity of these factors was estimated using tests of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.ResultsOver a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 17.3% of men (n=1535) and 5.7% of women (n=281) were convicted of a violent offence. Criminal history factors most strongly associated with subsequent violence for both men and women were a previous conviction for a violent offence; for assault, illegal threats and/or intimidation; and imprisonment. However, only a previous conviction for a violent offence was associated with incremental predictive validity in both genders following adjustment for young age and comorbid substance use disorder.ConclusionsClinical and actuarial approaches to assess violence risk can be improved if included risk factors are tested using multiple measures of performance.

The Utility of SAPROF-YV Ratings for Predicting Recidivism in Male Youth Under Community Supervision in Singapore

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (11) ◽  
pp. 1409-1427
Author(s):  
Chi Meng Chu ◽  
Xuexin Xu ◽  
Dongdong Li ◽  
Kala Ruby ◽  
Grace S. Chng
Keyword(s):  
Protective Factors ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Male Youth ◽  
General Recidivism ◽  
Incremental Predictive Validity

There is bourgeoning empirical support for the usage of the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) across many jurisdictions, but there is a dearth of research on the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for Violence Risk—Youth Version (SAPROF-YV). This study examined (a) the predictive validity of the SAPROF-YV ratings for general recidivism and (b) the incremental predictive validity of the SAPROF-YV ratings when used in conjunction with the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) 2.0 ratings. Using a sample of 822 male youths who were involved with the justice system and under community supervision in Singapore, the results showed that the SAPROF-YV total score and final protection judgment rating were significantly predictive of general recidivism. Moreover, the SAPROF-YV total score and final judgment rating showed incremental predictive validity over the YLS/CMI 2.0 total score and risk rating. Overall, the results suggest that SAPROF-YV ratings are suited for assessing justice-involved youth within the Singaporean context and can be used in conjunction with YLS/CMI 2.0 ratings for predicting recidivism.

scholarly journals Predictive Validity of the MAYSI-2 and PAI-A for Suicide-Related Behavior and Nonsuicidal Self-Injury Among Adjudicated Adolescent Offenders on Probation

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (9) ◽  
pp. 1383-1403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine S. Shaffer ◽  
Erik M. D. Gulbransen ◽  
Jodi L. Viljoen ◽  
Ronald Roesch ◽  
Kevin S. Douglas
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prospective Study ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Adolescent Offenders ◽  
Self Injury ◽  
Informed Decisions ◽  
High Risk Youth ◽  
Nonsuicidal Self Injury ◽  
Incremental Predictive Validity

This prospective study evaluated the ability of the MAYSI-2 and PAI-A to predict suicide-related behavior (SRB) and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) among adjudicated adolescent offenders on probation. Predictive validity of the MAYSI-2 for SRB and NSSI has generally been postdictively examined among detained adolescents. In addition, no published studies have examined the predictive validity of the PAI-A for SRB and NSSI among adolescent offenders. Neither the MAYSI-2 nor PAI-A added incremental predictive validity above lifetime SRB or NSSI. However, several MAYSI-2 and PAI-A subscales were predictive of SRB or NSSI. With some exceptions, most recommended instrument cut-off scores differentiated between low-risk and high-risk youth. These findings suggest that the MAYSI-2 and PAI-A hold promise for evaluating SRB and NSSI among justice-involved youth. In addition, these findings contribute to more informed decisions regarding the use of these tools and can be used to inform SRB and NSSI prevention efforts.

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