An Investigation into the Intertemporal Spending Path of Local Government in Mauritius

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 432-453
Author(s):  
Sanju Naraidoo ◽  
Sanjeev K. Sobhee
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Local Government Expenditure

This article examines whether local government expenditure in Mauritius is characterised by an intertemporal decision-making path. In other words, to what extent does local government expenditure respond to contemporaneous changes in revenues. In this respect, the article contributes to the existing body of literature by exploring the context of an upper-middle-income country like Mauritius while factoring intertemporal choice in the supply of local public goods. Moreover, the article determines the short-run and long-run responsiveness of local public expenditure to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through an error correction model based on time series data for Mauritius over the period 1987–2017. Our findings indicate that local government spending becomes less sensitive to its previous values when GDP and its past values are introduced as control variables in the model. Local government expenditure and real output are also found to be co-integrated or to share a long-term relationship. JEL Classification: B22, C1, D9, H4, H11

scholarly journals The Determinants of Level of Society Welfare Within Fiscal Decentralization Framework In Regional Autonomy Era

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-70
Author(s):  
Nuwun Priyono ◽  
Siti Arifah ◽  
Eva Wulandari ◽  
Panji Kusuma Prasetyanto
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Significance Test ◽  
Profit Sharing ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Local Government Expenditure

The purpose of this study is to prove to what extent the influence that fiscal decentralization, local financial performance, local government expenditure, Locally Generated Recurring Revenues or Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD), Profit-Sharing Fund or Dana Bagi Hasil (DBH), General Allocation Fund or Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU), and Special Allocation Fund or Dana Alokasi Khusus (DAK) have on the level of society welfare. The objects of this research are Regencies and Municipalities in Java Island. The data used in this study are the secondary. The data on balance sheet and realization report of the regional revenues and expenditure budget (APBD) are from the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. The data on the level of society welfare that is proxyed by the value of HDI is obtained from Bappenas and BPS of Central Java. This research uses time series data from 2012-2014 periods. The research method used is the research of causality with linear regression model. The result of the significance test shows that only one DAK variable can partially affect the HDI variable. Meanwhile those variables other than DAK partially or individually do not influence the HDI variable. The result of regression analysis shows that simultaneously such variables as Fiscal Decentralization, Regional Finance Performance, Local Government Expenditure, PAD, DAU, DAK and DBH have an influence on HDI in Regencies / Municipalities in Java Island.

Does Infrastructure Matters in Government Spending? A Case Study of Jammu and Kashmir (India) with Cointegration Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 82-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir Ul Hassan ◽  
Biswambhara Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Jammu And Kashmir ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study is an attempt to investigate the impact of infrastructure level on government spending in short and long run and also to find the tendency of infrastructure level to stabilise any disequilibrium in government spending in long run. Infrastructure is related to the quality and quantity of goods and services provided by government to the population, to fulfil their diverse demands. The state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is not an exception; the increasing trend in different aspects of population and rising needs and aspirations of the growing population forces the government to increase expenditure on that count, which results in increase in aggregate government spending. Using multivariate cointegration technique followed by vector error correction model (VECM) model on annual time-series data for the period from 1984 to 2013 with broader data set of infrastructure dimension, the study found that the infrastructure variables cause major variation in government expenditure in short as well as in long run. Study shows that infrastructure related to health, education, roads and portable water produce positive and significant impact on the growth of government spending and infrastructure related to these dimensions has significant tendency to stabilise any disequilibrium in government spending in long run. JEL Classification: H3, H5, H53, I

scholarly journals The causal and cointegration relationship between government revenue and government expenditure

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Kebitsamang Anne Sere ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Short Run

This study determines the causal relationship that exists between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. The study employed annual time series data from the year 1980 to 2015 taken from the South African Reserve Bank. The Johansen multivariate method was employed to test for co-integration and for causality the Vector Error Correction/Granger causality test was employed. The empirical results suggest that there is a long-run relation-ship between government revenue and government expenditure. The causality result suggests that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. Thus, policy makers in the short run should determine government revenue and government expenditure of South Africa independently when reducing the budget deficit.

scholarly journals Effect of Public Expenditure in Construction and Transportation sectors on Employment in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
pp. 130-136
Author(s):  
EWUBARE,Dennis Brown ◽  
MAEBA, Sampson Lucky
Keyword(s):  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Employment Rate ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run

This paper examined public expenditure and employment in Nigeria from 1980 to 2017. The study was induced by the insufficient federal government budgetary allocations to some critical sectors such as transport and construction sectors that tend to prompt the decay in the construction sector. To this end, the objectives of the study are to evaluate the effect of public expenditure in construction and transport sectors on employment rate in Nigeria. In doing this time series data were collected from CBN bulletin from 1980-2017 on variables such as employment rate, public expenditure on construction and transportation sectors. The cointegraton and ECM methods were used for the analysis. The long run dynamic results showed that there exists a long-run relationship or equilibrium among the variables. The coefficient of ECM is negatively signed and statistically significant at 5 percent level. Meaning that the short run error has been adjusted to long run equilibrium relationship. The result of analysis showed that in the long run, government expenditure will address the pitfalls in the country employment. Therefore, the paper recommended that effort should be made to ensure viability of social infrastructure through increase in annual capital budget spending in order to increase the level of employment and hence economic growth in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Development expenditure, fiscal consolidation and public revenue in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Subramanya Venkataraman ◽  
Arabi Urmi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Development Expenditure ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Public Revenue ◽  
The Government

Following challenges with increasing fiscal deficit, the Government of India adopted the path of fiscal consolidation with the sole intention of reducing fiscal and other deficits. However, in the drive to reduce government expenditure, it is necessary to be cautious of how it affects expenditures such as development expenditure that are very essential to the well-being of people. This study therefore investigated how fiscal consolidation and Public revenue affect development expenditure in India using time series data from 1977-2015 and the ARDL model. The study found that, in both the short run and long run, public revenue had a positive significant impact on development expenditure whiles fiscal consolidation had a negative significant impact on development expenditure. The study therefore recommended that in our attempt to attain fiscal consolidation, care must be taken not to abandon development expenditure which has serious effects on the well-being of people.

scholarly journals Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1970-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (No. 1) ◽  
pp. 139-174
Author(s):  
Chandana Aluthge ◽  
Adamu Jibir ◽  
Musa Abdu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of Nigerian government expenditure (disaggregated into capital and recurrent) on economic growth using time series data for the period 1970-2019. The paper employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. To ensure robustness of results, the study accounts for structural breaks in the unit root test and the co-integration analysis. The key findings of the study are that capital expenditure has positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run while recurrent expenditure does not have significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run. The study recommends that government should increase the share of the capital expenditure especially on meaningful projects that have direct bearing on the citizen’s welfare. Government should also improve the spending patterns of recurrent expenditure through careful reallocation of resources toward productive activities that would enhance human development in the country.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Esaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration.FindingsThis paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth.Practical implicationsThese findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run.Originality/valueThese findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

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