On the myth of reported precision in public opinion polls

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Research Note ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Public Opinion Poll ◽  
Margin Of Error ◽  
False Sense ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Many public opinion polls report a mythical margin of error. These reported margins of error are calculated on the basis of a nonexistent (fictitious) dichotomous poll question and are completely unrelated to the actual question responses in a poll. Because it can convey a false sense of poll precision, a mythical margin of error can lead to unsupported and even incorrect inferences regarding the precision of a public opinion poll. This research note documents the existence and implications of mythical margins of error and offers suggestions for addressing them.

Study Design and Statistics

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret A. Winker ◽  
Stephen J. Lurie
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Medical Research ◽  
Cardiac Catheterization ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Public Opinion Poll ◽  
Margin Of Error ◽  
Heart Functions ◽  
Statistical Results

Statistical concepts, such as the margin of error in a public opinion poll or the probability of rain or snow, appear in everyday conversation. But, just as one may understand how the heart functions and how blood circulates but not be able to perform a cardiac catheterization, an understanding of statistical concepts does not enable one to perform the work of a statistician. Although the concepts may be familiar, the tools of statistics may be misapplied and the results misinterpreted without a statistician’s help. In medical research, the quality of the statistical analysis and clarity of presentation of statistical results are critical to a study’s validity. Decisions about statistical analysis are best made at the time that the study is designed and generally should not be deferred until after the data have been collected. Even the most sophisticated statistical analysis cannot salvage a fundamentally flawed study. Regardless of the statistician’s role, authors (who may include statisticians) are responsible for the appropriate design, analysis, and presentation of the study’s results...

scholarly journals The Pulse of Non-Democracy?

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 262-289
Author(s):  
Alexey Titkov
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Sphere ◽  
Representative Democracy ◽  
Political Regime ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

The article continues the discussion of Grigory Yudin’s book Public Opinion. The review considers Yudin’s arguments on the “plebiscitarian bias” in opinion-poll technology, on the linkages between opinion-polls, Rousseauist tradition and the “plebiscitarian model”, and on Gallup’s, Schumpeter’s, and Weber’s contributions to plebiscitarism. In the context of the proposed conceptual model, controversial issues in the interpretation of Weber’s and Schumpeter’s ideas, as well as an estimation of the Russian political regime in the 2010s are debated. Models of plebescitarism (including their principles and criteria) as proposed by Yudin, and by Urbinati in Democracy Disfigured are compared. The article highlights the differences between Gallup and Schumpeter, as well as between Schumpeter and Weber, in their insights into democracy and public opinion. The reviewer pays attention to the relationship between the classical doctrine of representative democracy by Schumpeter and the bourgeois public sphere by Habermas, and between public debates and the quantification of public opinion. We examine the argument about the continuity between public-opinion polls and the big projects of Modernity, such as representative democracy, public sphere, and biopolitics. Continuity argument is proposed as an alternative to Yudin’s hypothesis about the radical reinvention of ‘democracy’ and ‘public opinion’ during the inter-war period of the 20th century. Yudin’s insights on the social and political onthology of opinion-polls are preliminary, and are reconstructed for further discussion.

scholarly journals The Quality of Public Opinion Poll Coverage during German Federal Election Campaigns

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catharina Vögele ◽  
Marko Bachl
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Correct Interpretation ◽  
Public Opinion Poll ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
The Public ◽  
Quantitative Content ◽  
Margin Of Error

We analyzed the quality of opinion poll coverage during the German Federal Election Campaigns 2005, 2009, 2013 and 2017 with a quantitative content analysis of the German quality newspapers Die Welt, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Süddeutsche Zeitung and Frankfurter Rundschau. From the literature, we derived three indicators of high quality poll coverage: 1) Identification the source of the reported poll, 2) inclusion of the most important methodological information of these polls, and 3) correct interpretation of the poll results with regard to the margin of error. In line with previous research, the poll coverage lacked quality according to all three criteria. We conclude with a discussion of some simple remedies to improve the public opinion poll coverage.

scholarly journals Research Note: Making News Based on Public Opinion Polls

2008 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 490-500 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathalie Sonck ◽  
Geert Loosveldt
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Research Note ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Determining the Margin of Error that Introduces Systematic Sampling of Public Opinion Polls (the Case of the Current Electorate of Tirana)

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Fatbardha Doçi
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Basic Assumption ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Systematic Sampling ◽  
The Public ◽  
Margin Of Error ◽  
Level 3 ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Made In

In polls that conducted today in Albanian reality, note that the margin of error is in the level + - 3%, regardless of other elements that affect in the validity of the polls. In the validity of answers, affects negatively also the questions with delicate problems . For getting these sincere responses, an important role plays the nature of the questions.If the questionnaire is composed of questions that can be characterized as fragile, then for the question that in itself treat political topics, the interviewer has a tendency to not show sincere to these questions. Questions with delicate topics tend to give respond less valuable . The methodology suggests that, when it is not possible to avoid delicate questions, become our best to preserve the anonymity of the respondent, which does not sure by the systematic sampling, which inevitably makes the respondent identifiable .So in this sample,respondents perceive themselves as identifiable. This causes them to feel threatened, if they give honest answers. Insincerity produces additional error that is intended to determine in the context of this paper. The study is not type explanatory, that uses working hypothesis as an assumed response to a research question, but experimental exploratory type, which seeks to test empirically the basic assumption and simultaneously determine the margins of error that are made in measurements to the public opinion when not respected the anonymity of respondents when we make delicate question.The experiment on which this paper is based, aims to test the basic assumption

Public Opinion Research—An Opportunity for Political Parties

1950 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 916-923
Author(s):  
Frederick C. Irion
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Public Opinion Research ◽  
Research Techniques ◽  
Margin Of Error ◽  
Critical Problems ◽  
High Regard ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

The purpose of this paper is to describe how public opinion research can aid political parties in adopting sound policies and wise courses of action. In view of the crisis brought to a climax by events in Korea, the analysis is confined to how current public opinion research can be used immediately and to how public opinion methodology can be adapted now for more extensive practical application. In addition, since public opinion research throws into focus the critical problems facing political parties, certain of these problems are noted to show the limitations of public opinion research as it can now be used.Before the 1948 polling difficulties, research in the form of questionnaires showed that politicians had a high regard for public opinion polls. Although apparently no comparable research has been conducted since then on their attitude toward polls, statements of individual politicians have shown that polls have dropped sharply in prestige. At present, public opinion research techniques are perhaps undervalued, as they were once overvalued.There is a primary misconception about polls which has been fostered in part by the pollsters themselves. Polls are not accurate to a percentage point or within an artificial “margin of error” under certain circumstances.

Public Opinion Polls on Japan

1950 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 101-103
Author(s):  
Arthur N. Feraru
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Growing Inequality and Public Awareness of Inequality in the States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
William W. Franko ◽  
Christopher Witko
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Perceptions Of Inequality ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls

Here the authors present the variation that exists in income inequality across the states, and variation in public awareness or concern about income inequality as measured by public opinion polls. Though politicians may decide to tackle income inequality even in the absence of public concern about inequality, the authors argue that government responses are more likely when and where there is a growing awareness of, and concern about, inequality, which is confirmed in the analyses in this book. To examine this question in subsequent chapters, a novel measure of public awareness of rising state inequality is developed. Using these estimates, this chapter shows that the growth in the public concern about inequality responds in part to objective increases in inequality, but also that state political conditions, particularly mass partisanship, shape perceptions of inequality.

Mexico's Public Opinion Poll

1944 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Belden
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Public Opinion Poll
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