Forecasting, impact analysis and uncertainty propagation in regional integrated models: A case study of Australia

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashkan Masouman ◽  
Charles Harvie
Keyword(s):  
Regional Economy ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Uncertainty Propagation ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Integrated Models ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy

The integration of input–output and econometric models at regional level has gained popularity for its superior performance in forecasting employment and examining the impacts of policies. There are a number of approaches to integrate the two models. This paper examines the integration of input–output with econometric modelling using two merging methodologies, namely coupling and holistic embedding. Each methodology is analysed with respect to the accuracy of its results of total and sectoral employment forecasting. Both methodologies are applied to a regional economy in Australia. The methodology which shows superior forecasting accuracy is applied to examine the significance of sectors that generate the highest number of employments relative to other sectors.

Regional economic impacts of limited entry fishery management: an application of dynamic input–output model

2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 709-728 ◽  
Author(s):  
MAHADEV G. BHAT ◽  
RAMACHANDRA BHATTA
Keyword(s):  
Fishery Management ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Economic Impacts ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Integrated Models ◽  
Regional Impacts ◽  
Limited Entry ◽  
Gains And Losses ◽  
Entry Regulations

Economic impacts that entry regulations have within the fishery industry are well documented in the economics literature. This study looks at how fishery regulations will impact other sectors of a regional economy. By developing integrated models of fishery bioeconomics and dynamic, inter-industry economic linkages, the paper estimates sector-wise economic gains and losses over time from an entry regulation. A case study from India shows that primary fishing and processing sectors realize significant wage and profit gains after a period of transition. Sizable losses in wage and industry profits are incurred by non-fishery sectors but are smaller than the profit gains in the primary sectors. The paper makes policy recommendations on how to ease the adverse regional impacts of fishery policies.

scholarly journals Effects of Rail Freight Corridors in Low Population Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 466-485
Author(s):  
Juan Francisco Coloma ◽  
Marta García ◽  
Eladio Pascual-Pedreño
Keyword(s):  
Economic System ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Simulation Tool ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Rail Freight ◽  
Direct Contribution ◽  
Productive System ◽  
Total Impact

Impact analysis of the construction and commissioning of a rail freight infrastructure must contemplate the regional economic system in its entirety, since that impact extends beyond the direct contribution to the increase in production, and the consequent generation of income from capital and remuneration of labor incorporated in such activity. The objective of this research is to know the effects that a rail freight infrastructure produces in a region with a low population, such as Extremadura (Spain). For this purpose, the calculation of the total impact produced by the rail freight corridor on the regional economy of Extremadura has been made, which will correspond to the sum of the direct, indirect and induced impacts. For its determination, a simulation tool has been created from Input-Output tables that allow you to compare different impact levels depending on the intensity of the investments made, or the activity developed following the launch of the new rail corridor. The research concludes with the profitability of the action because for a planned investment of 160 M€ for 3 years in the freight rail corridor from Extremadura, every euro invested returns in more than 2 euros to the Extremadura’s productive system, creating more than 4100 jobs.

The Effect of Aggregation on the Empirical Identification of Key Sectors in a Regional Economy: A Partial Evaluation of Alternative Techniques

1974 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 439-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
G J D Hewings
Keyword(s):  
Regional Economy ◽  
Partial Evaluation ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Careful Attention ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Key Sectors ◽  
Alternative Techniques ◽  
Open Nature

The open nature of regional economies requires that careful attention be paid to the magnitude of intraregional interindustry relationships when decisions about the allocation of investment are made. A number of methods have been proposed for the purposes of identifying key sectors in a national economy using input–output models. This research reports on attempts to identify key sectors at the regional level using the 1963 and 1967 Washington State input–output models at various levels of aggregation. The lack of consistency of identification of key sectors by the various methods suggests that these approaches have limited utility at the regional level.

scholarly journals Zur Freizeitnutzung von Schweizer Wäldern: ihre Bedeutung für die regionale Ökonomie

2011 ◽  
Vol 162 (11) ◽  
pp. 396-404
Author(s):  
Luisa Vogt ◽  
Marco Pütz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Recreation Area ◽  
Tourism Services ◽  
Recreational Use

Recreational use of Swiss forests: their importance for the regional economy Forests fulfill conservation, production and welfare functions. If forests are not considered isolatedly, but rather as part of a landscape or a region, their positive impact on regional welfare becomes apparent. The regional economic impact of the recreational use of Swiss forests is investigated in the case study regions of Sihlwald, a typical local recreation area, and Bergell, a destination for nature-based tourism. The relative importance of forests in the decision to visit the case study regions is identified by means of a conjoint analysis that assesses the forest affinity of visitors. Both the regional added value and the employment effects of the recreational use of forests are identified in an economic impact analysis. The results show that although they have a high affinity for forests, visitors to local recreation forests, such as the Sihlwald, spend little and generate rather small regional economic impacts. In contrast, the findings for nature-based tourism destinations, such as the Bergell, show a different picture: although the forest is not the most important criterion when selecting the destination, the regional economy benefits from higher consumer expenditures. The amount of visitor expenditure most notably depends on the variety and quality of tourism services in and around the forest area. Hence, to promote the regional economic importance of the recreational use of forests, tourism services in forest areas would have to be created or enhanced.

Economic Impact Analysis on Regional Industries by High-Speed Rail Investments: Application of an Input-Output Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 2672 (10) ◽  
pp. 247-259
Author(s):  
Changju Lee ◽  
Jiaqi Ma ◽  
Kwan Kyo Oh
Keyword(s):  
High Speed ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Input Output ◽  
High Speed Rail ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Financial Investment ◽  
Economic Impact Analysis ◽  
Railroad Tracks

High-speed rail (HSR) systems have advantages over road and air transport, but they require significant financial investment. The economic viability of HSR systems has been analyzed through various methods. The approaches used cannot consider all intangible variables, or cannot satisfy the needs of all stakeholders. Particularly, in situations when policy makers are considering the construction of a new HSR system to stimulate the regional economy, detailed economic effects need to be measured. Hence, this research focuses on: (a) formulating a methodological framework to utilize an input-output (I-O) model in a given region where the regional I-O table is not provided, and (b) quantifying actual economic effects on regional industries by new HSR investment as a case study. Specifically, a four-step process with an I-O model is proposed, and a three-point effect (output, employment, and income) is assessed in Sejong, Republic of Korea. The effects of building a new HSR station in Sejong might generate over $100 million in output, over $21 million in income, and almost 1,000 jobs. Construction of railroad tracks would have more effects on the regional economy with over $1,671 million output, over $37 million income and over 145,000 jobs. In this study, only publicly available data sources are considered to propose the methodology. This approach, therefore, can be repeated for policy analyses in other locations where the data is limited. Further, regardless of the type of transportation investment, this approach can be used by policy makers seeking secure decisions to quantify economic effects on regional industries.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document