Development of the 2017 national seismic hazard maps of Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 112-136
Author(s):  
Masyhur Irsyam ◽  
Phil R Cummins ◽  
M Asrurifak ◽  
Lutfi Faizal ◽  
Danny Hilman Natawidjaja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
National Standards ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

Indonesia is one of the most seismically active countries in the world, and its large, vulnerable population makes reliable seismic hazard assessment an urgent priority. In 2016, the Indonesian Ministry of Public Works and Housing established a team of earthquake scientists and engineers tasked with improving the input data available for revising the national seismic hazard map. They compiled results of recent active fault studies using geological, geophysical, and geodetic observations, as well as a new comprehensive earthquake catalog including hypocenters relocated in a three-dimensional velocity model. Seismic hazard analysis was undertaken using recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), and logic trees for the inclusion of epistemic uncertainty associated with different choices for GMPEs and earthquake recurrence models. The new seismic hazard maps establish the importance of active faults and intraslab seismicity, as well as the subduction megathrust, in determining the level of seismic hazard, especially in onshore, populated areas. The new Indonesian hazard maps will be used to update national standards for design of earthquake-resilient buildings and infrastructure.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard maps of Peshawar District for various return periods

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 1639-1661
Author(s):  
Khalid Mahmood ◽  
Naveed Ahmad ◽  
Usman Khan ◽  
Qaiser Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Target Location ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

Abstract. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Peshawar District has been performed for a grid size of 0.01∘. The seismic sources for the target location are defined as the area polygon with uniform seismicity. The earthquake catalogue was developed based on the earthquake data obtained from different worldwide seismological networks and historical records. The earthquake events obtained at different magnitude scales were converted into moment magnitude using indigenous catalogue-specific regression relationships. The homogenized catalogue was subdivided into shallow crustal and deep-subduction-zone earthquake events. The seismic source parameters were obtained using the bounded Gutenberg–Richter recurrence law. Seismic hazard maps were prepared for peak horizontal acceleration at bedrock level using different ground motion attenuation relationships. The study revealed the selection of an appropriate ground motion prediction equation is crucial for defining the seismic hazard of Peshawar District. The inclusion of deep subduction earthquakes does not add significantly to the seismic hazard for design base ground motions. The seismic hazard map developed for shallow crustal earthquakes, including also the epistemic uncertainty, was in close agreement with the map given in the Building Code of Pakistan Seismic Provisions (2007) for a return period of 475 years on bedrock. The seismic hazard maps for other return periods i.e., 50, 100, 250, 475 and 2500 years, are also presented.

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Hanoi city

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 321-338
Author(s):  
Pham The Truyen ◽  
Nguyen Hong Phuong
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
S Period

In this study, the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment proposed by Cornell and Esteva in 1968 was applied for Hanoi city, using an earthquake catalog updated until 2018 and a comprehensive seismotectonic model of the territory of Vietnam and adjacent sea areas. Statistical methods were applied for declustering the earthquake catalog, then the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters of the Gutenberg–Richter Law and the maximum magnitude for each seismic source zone. Two GMPEs proposed by Campbell & Bozorgnia (2008) and Akkar et al., (2014) were selected for use in hazard analysis. Results of PSHA for Hanoi city are presented in the form of probabilistic seismic hazard maps, depicting peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) as well as 5-hertz (0.2 sec period) and 1-hertz (1.0 sec. period) spectral accelerations (SA) with 5-percent damping on a uniform firm rock site condition, with 10%, 5%, 2% and 0,5% probability of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of 475; 975; 2,475 and 9,975 years, respectively. The results of PSHA show that, for the whole territory of Hanoi city, for all four return periods, the predicted PGA values correspond to the intensity of VII to IX degrees according to the MSK-64 scale. As for the SA maps, for all four return periods, the predicted SA values at 1.0 s period correspond to the intensity of VI to VII, while the predicted SA values at 0.2 s period correspond to the intensity of VIII to X according to the MSK-64 scale. This is the last updated version of the probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Hanoi city. The 2019 probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Hanoi city display earthquake ground motions for various probability levels and can be applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard maps of Peshawar district for various return periods

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalid Mahmood ◽  
Usman Khan ◽  
Qaiser Iqbal ◽  
Naveed Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Target Location ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Earthquake Catalogues ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

Abstract. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Peshawar District has been conducted in for a grid size of 0.01. The seismic sources for the target location are defined as the area polygon with uniform seismicity for which, the earthquake catalogues were obtained from different worldwide seismological network data. The earthquake catalogues obtained in different magnitude scale was converted into moment magnitude using regression analysis. The homogenized catalogue was then further subdivided into shallow crustal and deep subduction zone earthquake events for which, the seismic source parameters were obtained using Bounded Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence law. The seismic hazard maps were prepared in term of PGA at bedrock using the different ground motion attenuation relationships. The study shows that; the selection of appropriate ground motion prediction equation is an important factor in deciding the seismic hazard of Peshawar District. The inclusion of deep subduction earthquake does not add significantly to the seismic hazard. The calculated seismic hazard map for shallow crustal earthquake after including the epistemic uncertainty was in close agreement to that developed by BCP-2007 for a return period of 475 years on bedrock. The seismic hazard maps for other return periods i.e., 50, 100, 250, 475 and 2500 years were then prepared.

scholarly journals Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment of Corsica-Sardinia block

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Brandmayr ◽  
Franco Vaccari ◽  
Giuliano Francesco Panza
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Source Information ◽  
Deterministic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismogenic Nodes

AbstractThe Corsica-Sardinia lithospheric block is commonly considered as a region of very low seismicity and the scarce reported seismicity for the area has till now precluded the reliable assessment of its seismic hazard. The time-honored assumption has been recently questioned and the historical seismicity of Sardinia has been reevaluated. Even more, several seismogenic nodes capable of M5 + have been recognized in the Corsica-Sardinia block exploiting the morphostructural zonation technique, calibrated to earlier results obtained for the Iberian peninsula, which has structural lithospheric affinities with the Corsica-Sardinia block. All this allows now for the computation of reliable earthquake hazard maps at bedrock conditions exploiting the power of Neo Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) evaluation. NDSHA relies upon the fundamental physics of wave generation and propagation in complex geologic structures and generates realistic time series from which several earthquake ground motion parameters can be readily extracted. NDSHA exploits in an optimized way all the available knowledge about lithospheric mechanical parameters, seismic history, seismogenic zones and nodes. In accordance with continuum mechanics, the tensor nature of earthquake ground motion is preserved computing realistic signals using structural models obtained by tomographic inversion and earthquake source information readily available in literature. The way to this approach has been open by studies focused on continental Italy and Sicily, where the agreement between hazard maps obtained using seismogenic zones, informed by earthquake catalog data, and the maps obtained using only seismogenic nodes are very good.

Seismic hazard analysis: a comparative study

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 1156-1171 ◽  
Author(s):  
H P Hong ◽  
K Goda ◽  
A G Davenport
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Historical Seismicity ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Uniform Hazard Spectra ◽  
Attenuation Relations ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Cell Method ◽  
Thiessen Polygon ◽  
The Impact

The quantitative seismic hazard maps for the 1970s National Building Code of Canada were evaluated using the Davenport–Milne method. The Cornell–McGuire method is employed to develop recent seismic hazard maps of Canada. These methods incorporate the information on seismicity, magnitude-recurrence relations, and ground motion (or response) attenuation relations. The former preserves and depends completely on details of the historical seismicity; the latter smoothes the irregular spatial occurrence pattern of the historical seismicity into seismic source zones. Further, the Epicentral Cell method, which attempts to incorporate the preserving and smoothing aspect of these methods, has been developed. However, the impact of the adopted assumptions on the estimated quantitative seismic hazard has not been investigated. This study provides a comparative seismic hazard assessment using the above-mentioned methods and simulation-based algorithms. The analysis results show that overall the Davenport–Milne method gives quasi-circular seismic hazard contours near significant historical events, and the Cornell–McGuire method smoothes the transition of contours. The Epicentral Cell method provides estimates approximately within the former and the latter. Key words: epicentral cell method, probability, seismic hazard, Thiessen polygon, Voronoi, uniform hazard spectra.

Performance of response spectral models against New Zealand data

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Van Houtte
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Crustal Earthquakes ◽  
Spectral Models ◽  
Strong Motion Database

An important component of seismic hazard assessment is the prediction of the potential ground motion generated by a given earthquake source. In New Zealand seismic hazard studies, it is commonplace for analysts to only adopt one or two models for predicting the ground motion, which does not capture the epistemic uncertainty associated with the prediction. This study analyses a suite of New Zealand and international models against the New Zealand Strong Motion Database, both for New Zealand crustal earthquakes and earthquakes in the Hikurangi subduction zone. It is found that, in general, the foreign models perform similarly or better with respect to recorded New Zealand data than the models specifically derived for New Zealand application. Justification is given for using global models in future seismic hazard analysis in New Zealand. Although this article does not provide definitive model weights for future hazard analysis, some recommendations and guidance are provided.

Seismic Hazard Assessment for Japan: Reconsiderations After the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 848-860 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Fujiwara ◽  
◽  
Nobuyuki Morikawa ◽  
Toshihiko Okumura ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Strong Motion ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
2011 Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps

Under the guidance of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion of Japan, we have been carrying out seismic hazard assessment for Japan since the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake and have made the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan to estimate strong motion caused by earthquakes that could occur in Japan in the future, and show estimated results on these maps. The Hazard Maps consist of two kinds of maps. One kind is a probabilistic seismic hazard map that shows the relation between seismic intensity value and its probability of exceedance within a certain period. The other kind is a scenario earthquake shaking map. In order to promote the use of the National Seismic Hazard Maps, we have developed an open Web system to provide information interactively, and have named this system the Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station (J-SHIS). The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) was the largest such event in the recorded history of Japan. This megathrust earthquake was not considered in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan. Based on lessons learned from this earthquake disaster and on experience we have had in the seismic hazardmapping project of Japan, we consider problems and issues to be resolved for seismic hazard assessment and make proposals to improve seismic hazard assessment for Japan.

Seismic Hazard Assessment in Australia: Can Structured Expert Elicitation Achieve Consensus in the “Land of the Fair Go”?

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (2A) ◽  
pp. 859-873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan D. Griffin ◽  
Trevor I. Allen ◽  
Matthew C. Gerstenberger
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Seismic Source Models

Abstract The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment of Australia incorporated 19 alternative seismic-source models developed by members of the Australian seismological community. The diversity of these models demonstrates the deep epistemic uncertainty that exists with regards to how best to characterize seismicity in stable continental regions. In the face of similarly high uncertainty, a diverse range of ground-motion models was proposed for use. A complex logic tree was developed to incorporate the alternative component models into a single hazard model. Expert opinion was drawn upon to weight the alternative logic-tree branches through a structured expert elicitation process. Expert elicitation aims to transparently and reproducibly characterize the community distribution of expert estimates for uncertain quantities and thereby quantify the epistemic uncertainty around estimates of seismic hazard in Australia. We achieve a multimodel rational consensus in which each model, and each expert, is, in accordance with the Australian cultural myth of egalitarianism, given a “fair go”—that is, judged on their merits rather than their status. Yet despite this process, we find that the results are not universally accepted. A key issue is a contested boundary between what is scientifically reducible and what remains epistemologically uncertain, with a particular focus on the earthquake catalog. Furthermore, a reduction, on average, of 72% for the 10% in 50 yr probability of exceedance peak ground acceleration levels compared with those underpinning existing building design standards, challenges the choice of metrics upon which design codes are based. Both quantification of the bounds of epistemic uncertainties through expert elicitation and reduction of epistemic uncertainties through scientific advances have changed our understanding of how the hazard behaves. Dialog between scientists, engineers, and policy makers is required to ensure that as our understanding of the hazard evolves, the hazard metrics used to underpin risk management decisions are re-evaluated to ensure societal aims are achieved.

Comparing Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps with ShakeMap Footprints for Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (2A) ◽  
pp. 847-858
Author(s):  
Adrien Pothon ◽  
Philippe Gueguen ◽  
Sylvain Buisine ◽  
Pierre-Yves Bard
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
The Past

Abstract A number of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) maps have been released for Indonesia over the past few decades. This study proposes a method for testing PSHA maps using U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap catalog considered as historical seismicity for Indonesia. It consists in counting the number of sites on rock soil for which the independent maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the ShakeMap footprints between May 1968 and May 2018 exceeds the thresholds from the PSHA map studied and in comparing this number with the probability of exceedance given in the PSHA map. Although ShakeMap footprints are not as accurate and complete as continuous recorded ground motion, the spatially distributed ShakeMap covers 7,642,261 grid points, with a resolution of 1  km2, compensating the lack of instrumental data over this period. This data set is large enough for the statistical analysis of independent PGA values on rock sites only. To obtain the subdata set, we develop a new selection process and a new comparison method, considering the uncertainty of ShakeMap estimates. The method is applied to three PSHA maps (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program [GSHAP], Global Assessment Report [GAR], and Standar Nasional Indonesia [SNI2017]) for a selection of sites first located in Indonesia and next only in the western part of the country. The results show that SNI2017 provides the best fit with seismicity over the past 50 yr for both sets of rock sites (whole country and western part only). At the opposite, the GAR and GSHAP seismic hazard maps only fit the seismicity observed for the set of rock sites in western Indonesia. This result indicates that this method can only conclude on the spatial scale of the analysis and cannot be extrapolated to any other spatial resolution.

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