Impacts on catastrophe risk assessments from multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures in the UCERF3 model

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110420
Author(s):  
Yajie Lee ◽  
Zhenghui Hui ◽  
Siamak Daneshvaran ◽  
Farhad Sedaghati ◽  
William P Graf
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Critical Examination ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Catastrophe Risk ◽  
Earthquake Losses ◽  
Average Annual Loss

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) relaxes fault segmentation, allowing multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures through fault-to-fault “jumps,” with lengths up to ∼1200 km along the San Andreas Fault. Local faults are also highly interconnected, including ruptures on the order of hundreds of kilometers. These prescribed long ruptures did not exist in older models. Longer ruptures produce larger aggregate loss estimates for geographically dispersed assets (portfolios) due to the wider areas that are affected by strong ground shaking. In this study, we model probabilistic earthquake losses of a hypothetical state-wide building portfolio in California. We develop risk deaggregation methods to identify multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures that contribute significantly to high portfolio-wide risks. Three risk measures that are commonly used in risk management decisions are examined: Average Annual Loss (AAL), Return Period Loss (RPLα), and Tail Conditional Expectation (TCEα), for an annual exceedance probability “α,” or corresponding return period “1/α.” Our results show that while the super long ruptures (>500 km) contribute modestly (∼7%) to the portfolio AAL estimate, they contribute more significantly to portfolio catastrophe risk estimates. Specifically, at a 250 year return period, these long ruptures contribute about 26% and 32% to RPL250 and TCE250 estimates, respectively. At a 500-year return period, the corresponding contributions reach about 35% and 39%. Ruptures that connect complex fault systems are also found to be highly influential to estimated portfolio risks. At a 500-year return period, a mere six rupture groups contribute nearly 70% to the RPL500 estimate. Due to the importance of the UCERF3 model to many risk management and public policy decisions, a critical examination of the limit and uncertainty of fault connectivity and rupture lengths of future earthquakes, as well as their impacts on catastrophe risk assessments, is warranted in future model updates.

KRiskSM: A Computerized Decision Aid for Client Acceptance and Continuance Risk Assessments

2002 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy B. Bell ◽  
Jean C. Bedard ◽  
Karla M. Johnstone ◽  
Edward F. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Quality Control ◽  
Decision Aid ◽  
Audit Quality ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Innovative Technology ◽  
Full Potential ◽  
Business Risk ◽  
Client Acceptance

This paper describes the development and implementation of KRisk, an innovative technology-enabled auditor decision aid for making client acceptance and continuance risk assessments. KRisk, developed and designed by KPMG LLP, is part of the firm's audit quality control and risk management processes. In this paper, we discuss the environmental and technological forces that affect auditor business risk management. We also describe important aspects of the development, functionality, and implementation of KRisk. We discuss possible impediments to realizing the full potential of decision aids that have been reported in prior auditing research, and describe how KRisk and related audit quality control procedures implemented at KPMG were designed to overcome such impediments. Also, we present some ideas for scholarly research dealing with auditor business risk management issues, and issues related to the design and use of decision aids in general.

scholarly journals Use and perceived utility of structured violence risk assessments in English medium secure forensic units

2009 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 129-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reena Khiroya ◽  
Tim Weaver ◽  
Tony Maden
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offender ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Risk Appraisal ◽  
Psychopathy Checklist ◽  
Perceived Utility ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
Psychopathy Checklist Revised

Aims and MethodWe surveyed the usage and perceived utility of standardised risk measures in 29 forensic medium secure units (a 62% response rate).ResultsThe most common instruments were Historical Clinical Risk–20 (HCR–20) and Psychopathy Checklist – revised (PCL–R); both were rated highly for utility. the Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000), Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and Static-99 were the most common sex offender assessments, but the Sexual Violence Risks–20 (SVR–20) was rated more positively for its use of dynamic factors and relevance to treatment.Clinical ImplicationsMost medium secure units use structured risk assessments and staff view them positively. As HCR–20 and PCL–R/PCL–SV (Psychopathy Checklist – Screening Version) are so widely used they should be the first choices considered by other services.

scholarly journals The impact of a and b value uncertainty on loss estimation in the reinsurance industry

2000 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Liechti ◽  
E. Ruettener ◽  
S. Eugster ◽  
R. Streit
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Loss Estimation ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Seismic Risk Analysis ◽  
Earthquake Catalogues ◽  
Local Soil ◽  
Average Annual Loss ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loss Level

In the reinsurance industry different probabilistic models are currently used for seismic risk analysis. A credible loss estimation of the insured values depends on seismic hazard analysis and on the vulnerability functions of the given structures. Besides attenuation and local soil amplification, the earthquake occurrence model (often represented by the Gutenberg and Richter relation) is a key element in the analysis. However, earthquake catalogues are usually incomplete, the time of observation is too short and the data themselves contain errors. Therefore, a and b values can only be estimated with uncertainties. The knowledge of their variation provides a valuable input for earthquake risk analysis, because they allow the probability distribution of expected losses (expressed by Average Annual Loss (AAL)) to be modelled. The variations of a and b have a direct effect on the estimated exceeding probability and consequently on the calculated loss level. This effect is best illustrated by exceeding probability versus loss level and AAL versus magnitude graphs. The sensitivity of average annual losses due to different a to b ratios and magnitudes is obvious. The estimation of the variation of a and b and the quantification of the sensitivity of calculated losses are fundamental for optimal earthquake risk management. Ignoring these uncertainties means that risk management decisions neglect possible variations of the earthquake loss estimations.

Potential Losses in a Repeat of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, Earthquake

2005 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 1157-1184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Wong ◽  
Jawhar Bouabid ◽  
William Graf ◽  
Charles Huyck ◽  
Allan Porush ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Carolina ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
The State ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Loss Assessment ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Earthquake Losses ◽  
Fire Stations

A comprehensive earthquake loss assessment for the state of South Carolina using HAZUS was performed considering four different earthquake scenarios: a moment magnitude ( M) 7.3 “1886 Charleston-like” earthquake, M 6.3 and M 5.3 events also from the Charleston seismic source, and an M 5.0 earthquake in Columbia. Primary objectives of this study were (1) to generate credible earthquake losses to provide a baseline for coordination, capability development, training, and strategic planning for the South Carolina Emergency Management Division, and (2) to raise public awareness of the significant earthquake risk in the state. Ground shaking, liquefaction, and earthquake-induced landsliding hazards were characterized using region-specific inputs on seismic source, path, and site effects, and ground motion numerical modeling. Default inventory data on buildings and facilities in HAZUS were either substantially enhanced or replaced. Losses were estimated using a high resolution 2- km×2- km grid rather than the census tract approach used in HAZUS. The results of the loss assessment indicate that a future repeat of the 1886 earthquake would be catastrophic, resulting in possibly 900 deaths, more than 44,000 injuries, and a total economic loss of $20 billion in South Carolina alone. Schools, hospitals, fire stations, ordinary buildings, and bridges will suffer significant damage due to the general lack of seismic design in the state. Lesser damage and losses will be sustained in the other earthquake scenarios although even the smallest event could result in significant losses.

A Study On Risks Involved In Using Different Business Process Tools And Techniques To Manage Them

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (09) ◽  
pp. 221-240
Author(s):  
Amanina Fakhriah Abd Rahman ◽  
◽  
Nursyaza Elmaliyana Nabilah Ali Rahman ◽  
Siti Aisyah Abdullah Rosneddin ◽  
Siti Nur Aqilah Hamzah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Business Process ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Tools And Techniques ◽  
Plan Management

This paper shows the outcome of the research conducted on risks while using business process tools and techniques applied to manage them. The study aims at getting answers for basic questions about risk management, such as what kind of risks the the businesses are encountering, and how to identify the risks and assess them. Risk assessments are very important as they form an integral part of plan management. Therefore, in this study, the aim is to evaluate the risks in different business processes along with the tools and techniques to manage or minimize the level of risks by adding more control measures as necessary.

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