scholarly journals The impact of a and b value uncertainty on loss estimation in the reinsurance industry

2000 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Liechti ◽  
E. Ruettener ◽  
S. Eugster ◽  
R. Streit
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Loss Estimation ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Seismic Risk Analysis ◽  
Earthquake Catalogues ◽  
Local Soil ◽  
Average Annual Loss ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loss Level

In the reinsurance industry different probabilistic models are currently used for seismic risk analysis. A credible loss estimation of the insured values depends on seismic hazard analysis and on the vulnerability functions of the given structures. Besides attenuation and local soil amplification, the earthquake occurrence model (often represented by the Gutenberg and Richter relation) is a key element in the analysis. However, earthquake catalogues are usually incomplete, the time of observation is too short and the data themselves contain errors. Therefore, a and b values can only be estimated with uncertainties. The knowledge of their variation provides a valuable input for earthquake risk analysis, because they allow the probability distribution of expected losses (expressed by Average Annual Loss (AAL)) to be modelled. The variations of a and b have a direct effect on the estimated exceeding probability and consequently on the calculated loss level. This effect is best illustrated by exceeding probability versus loss level and AAL versus magnitude graphs. The sensitivity of average annual losses due to different a to b ratios and magnitudes is obvious. The estimation of the variation of a and b and the quantification of the sensitivity of calculated losses are fundamental for optimal earthquake risk management. Ignoring these uncertainties means that risk management decisions neglect possible variations of the earthquake loss estimations.

General Approach to Risk Analysis

2014 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Davorin Matanovic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Methods ◽  
Iterative Process ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Hybrid Methods ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Acceptance Criteria ◽  
Risk Acceptance ◽  
The Impact

Broadly accepted methodology that is implemented in the oil industry when dealing with risks includes as the first step the identification of possible hazards. That is done by gathering information about degree of risk according to working procedures, processes, and individuals involved in the operation of the process. That is the first step in risk management, an iterative process that must lead to the use of proper measurements in the way of protecting people, facilities and environment. The analysis is done based on the combination of probability and severity of undesirable events, and the final consequences. Explanation of basic terms, their interdependence, dilemmas, and methods of risk analysis are introduced. Each method is shortly described with main anteriority and shortcomings. Differences between quantitative methods, qualitative methods, and hybrid methods (the combination of qualitative-quantitative or semi-quantitative methods) are elaborated. The impact, occurrence, and the consequences are at the end compared to risk acceptance criteria concept. The ALARP (As Low as Reasonably Practicable) framework is explained with some observation on the quality and acceptance in petroleum industry. Finally, the human impact on the risk and consequences is analyzed.

General Approach to Risk Analysis

2015 ◽  
pp. 1217-1236
Author(s):  
Davorin Matanovic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Methods ◽  
Iterative Process ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Hybrid Methods ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Acceptance Criteria ◽  
Risk Acceptance ◽  
The Impact

Broadly accepted methodology that is implemented in the oil industry when dealing with risks includes as the first step the identification of possible hazards. That is done by gathering information about degree of risk according to working procedures, processes, and individuals involved in the operation of the process. That is the first step in risk management, an iterative process that must lead to the use of proper measurements in the way of protecting people, facilities and environment. The analysis is done based on the combination of probability and severity of undesirable events, and the final consequences. Explanation of basic terms, their interdependence, dilemmas, and methods of risk analysis are introduced. Each method is shortly described with main anteriority and shortcomings. Differences between quantitative methods, qualitative methods, and hybrid methods (the combination of qualitative-quantitative or semi-quantitative methods) are elaborated. The impact, occurrence, and the consequences are at the end compared to risk acceptance criteria concept. The ALARP (As Low as Reasonably Practicable) framework is explained with some observation on the quality and acceptance in petroleum industry. Finally, the human impact on the risk and consequences is analyzed.

Risk Analysis Using Simulation Software Applied on a Road Infrastructure Project

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijaya S. Desai
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Software Tools ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
The Body ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Infrastructure Project ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
The Impact

Risk management in infrastructure projects has been a very important process to achieve the project objectives, namely: time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. Huge investments are made in infrastructure construction projects like roads, railways, ports, airports, electricity, telecommunication, oil gas pipelines and irrigation. This growing Increase in investment in infrastructure investment projects demands requires close monitoring of costs to ensure a net return. The evaluation of returns on investment at the conceptual stage plays a vital role in this phase. Software tools help in bringing out near accurate analysis of returns on investments and to support project viability under multiple circumstances. The paper presents an analysis of how software was applied to evaluate and mitigate risk during the case of a six lane road infrastructure project. The unit of analysis was the impact of cost of construction cost, interest rates for loans, methods of depreciation, revenue sharing on various financial indices: IRR, MIRR, DSCR and payback period. The interpretation was that software tools can be used to perform risk analysis, sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. The case study makes a contribution to the body of knowledge by developing guidelines for using software tools in risk management.

scholarly journals ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF POPULATION HEALTH RISKS MANAGEMENT IN RUSSIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 97 (6) ◽  
pp. 572-575 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. N. Rakitskiy ◽  
Simon L. Avaliani ◽  
T. A. Shashina ◽  
N. S. Dodina
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Management Activity ◽  
Impact Reduction ◽  
The Government ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
The Impact

In the article there are defined the main tasks of risk analysis and its main component - risk management, which make it possible to develop economically efficient measures, aimed at the impact reduction of environmental harmful factors for public health based on the analysis of market driven approaches «cost-benefit» and «cost-effectiveness». As well there are emphasized significant fundamental changes in the area of the legislative support of management activity, focused on sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population. The implementation of risk-focused approach to the practice of means of control and supervision to the government of Russian Federation is an integral part of control reformation system of different nature. The key problems of public health risk management in Russia are defined and the main ways of their solution are discussed. Thus, the development of reliable and scientifically based classifications of hazard level for objects requires clear criteria for supervision of assessing objects. Classes of business entities should reflect the leading risk factors, which discovered in the controlled areas. In the justification of risk from the probability (frequency) of violations of the mandatory requirements of sanitary legislation required the inventory of all consequences of the breach of sanitary legislation for each object of supervision and their ranking according to the degree of hazard. It is pointed out, that the movement towards to the technological regulation of air pollution emissions, including indicators of the Maximum Achievable Control Technology or (MACT) is a progressive management method, which requires an analysis with the use of MACT from the perspective of achieving acceptable risk levels, as well as an assessment of the effectiveness of alternative measures to reduce emissions, including MACT. It was noted, that on the basis of comparative risk analysis, it is possible to assess not only the risk to human health, but also the environmental risk to the ecosystem and its components, as well as the risk associated with the violation of the quality and living conditions. It is seen the interaction of concerned parties in the development of solutions management of health risks from environmental factors.

scholarly journals RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT OF PROCUREMENT ACTIVITIES IN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL BOOK PRINTING PROJECT USING HOUSE OF RISK METHOD

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 225-229
Author(s):  
Ananda Vania Arisa Putri ◽  
Rheza Aulia Ramadhan ◽  
Bambang Purwanggono Sukarsono
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Elementary School ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Management Effort ◽  
School Books ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Analysis And Management

Risk management is a management effort to control the company's risk operations by conducting risk analysis, risk evaluation and mitigation plan. Risk management efforts are feasible to be applied to the company's business activities including procurement activities. PT XYZ is one of the printing companies whose main demand is the printing of Elementary School Books. There is a decrease in demand that results in disruption to the company's cash flow so that a tight money policy is applied to every company's activity including procurement activities. This policy increases the risk that may occur, so risk management efforts are needed to minimize the impact that can occur. The House of Risk method is used to identify risk events and risk agents that cause them, and design mitigation measures to address those risk agents. The results showed that there were 10 risk events and 10 identified risk agents, with priority risk agents to be handled are A1 (volume and type of raw materials are incorrect) and A3 (communication interruption). There are 5 recommended mitigation measures.

scholarly journals Design of Risk Management Based on Iso 31000 in PDAM Tirta Meulaboh

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Zainal Putra ◽  
Syafruddin Chan ◽  
Moenawar IHA
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Management System ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Risk Management System ◽  
Optimal Service ◽  
Iso 31000 ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Water Meter

<p>Regional Water Company (PDAM) Tirta Meulaboh is the only state- ownedof West Aceh district that provides clean water for the residents of West Aceh, especially the residents of the city of Meulaboh and its surroundings. But in its operation the company has not yet to have a risk management system, so it has the impact on the company's survival and not optimal service to its customers. The study aims to identify risk, risk analysis and risk evaluation, in order to do prevention and mitigation of the impact of risk on each section in PDAM Tirta Meulaboh using risk management system standard ISO 31000. The process steps of risk management based on ISO 31000, starting from risk identification to methods Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS), risk analysis using matrix risk quantification and Risk Priority Number (RPN), and the evaluation of risks by using risk map. The results showed that in PDAM Tirta Meulaboh there were 43 risk events that have the potential business problems, which if they were not solved immediately it could affect the performance of the company, even the survival of the company. Of the 43 potential risks that were logged to the red zone, there were 5 potential risks which occupies the first rank is on productions departement: the defective of production water meter, the defective of distribution water meter and retrieval water by tank car without through the water meter. Branch Kaway XVI: customers are reluctant to pay the water bill and in IKK Rantau Panjang: water meter of raw water was damaged. The Efforts to mitigate against the risk of those 43 events which were logged in the red zone has not been planned and done yet by the management of PDAM Tirta Meulaboh.</p><p><br />Keywords: ISO 31000, PDAM Tirta Meulaboh, Risk Management</p>

scholarly journals Design of Risk Management Based on Iso 31000 in PDAM Tirta Meulaboh

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (01) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Zainal Putra ◽  
Syafruddin Chan ◽  
Moenawar IHA
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Management System ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Risk Management System ◽  
Optimal Service ◽  
Iso 31000 ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Water Meter

<p>Regional Water Company (PDAM) Tirta Meulaboh is the only state- ownedof West Aceh district that provides clean water for the residents of West Aceh, especially the residents of the city of Meulaboh and its surroundings. But in its operation the company has not yet to have a risk management system, so it has the impact on the company's survival and not optimal service to its customers. The study aims to identify risk, risk analysis and risk evaluation, in order to do prevention and mitigation of the impact of risk on each section in PDAM Tirta Meulaboh using risk management system standard ISO 31000. The process steps of risk management based on ISO 31000, starting from risk identification to methods Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS), risk analysis using matrix risk quantification and Risk Priority Number (RPN), and the evaluation of risks by using risk map. The results showed that in PDAM Tirta Meulaboh there were 43 risk events that have the potential business problems, which if they were not solved immediately it could affect the performance of the company, even the survival of the company. Of the 43 potential risks that were logged to the red zone, there were 5 potential risks which occupies the first rank is on productions departement: the defective of production water meter, the defective of distribution water meter and retrieval water by tank car without through the water meter. Branch Kaway XVI: customers are reluctant to pay the water bill and in IKK Rantau Panjang: water meter of raw water was damaged. The Efforts to mitigate against the risk of those 43 events which were logged in the red zone has not been planned and done yet by the management of PDAM Tirta Meulaboh.</p><p><br />Keywords: ISO 31000, PDAM Tirta Meulaboh, Risk Management</p>

The Impact of Portfolio Location Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis

Risk Analysis ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 695-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Scheingraber ◽  
Martin A. Käser
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Seismic Risk Analysis ◽  
Location Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Implementing a Quantitative Geohazard Frequency Analysis Framework as a Component of Risk Assessment of New Pipelines

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Baumgard ◽  
Michael Beaupre ◽  
Mark Leir
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Large Diameter ◽  
Management Framework ◽  
Transmission Pipeline ◽  
Forestry Industry ◽  
Annual Frequency ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
The Impact

In the last 5 years in Canada, regulators have been requesting that new pipeline projects provide quantitative risk management of all credible geohazards involving the proposed pipeline corridor so it can be demonstrated that geohazards are being recognized prioritized and that adequate resources are being allocated and to minimize the impact of adverse consequences of pipeline construction and operation. Complete risk management includes risk analysis that identifies credible geohazards sites, estimates their annual frequency or probability of pipeline failure and, when combined with a consequence of pipeline failure, estimates the risk from each hazard. This paper presents a framework and methodology that quantitatively estimates the Frequency of Loss of Containment (FLoC) for several types of geohazards that meet the requirements for geohazard identification and frequency analysis components of risk analysis. This framework builds on an international geohazard management framework advanced in the last decade by the Australian Geomechanics Society, British Columbia forestry industry, used in geohazard management programs for operating pipelines and proposed pipeline projects in Canada. The framework provides a repeatable and defensible methodology that is intended to be scalable to accept inputs from feasibility level desktop studies, through field-based observations, and incorporate proposed mitigations. This updated framework was most recently implemented on a proposed large diameter transmission pipeline route crossing the varied terrains of Western Canada, the results of which have been adjusted for Owner confidentiality, but are presented to demonstrate the application of the methodology and the effectiveness of communicating the overall hazard frequency reduction as a result of applying site specific mitigations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document