scholarly journals Modelling and predicting the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 in Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Giuliani ◽  
Maria Michela Dickson ◽  
Giuseppe Espa ◽  
Flavio Santi
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Italian Provinces ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in China at the end of 2019 and it has since spread in few months all over the World. Italy was one of the first Western countries who faced the health emergency and is one of the countries most severely affected by the pandemic. The diffusion of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy has followed a peculiar spatial pattern, however the attention of the scientific community has so far focussed almost exclusively on the prediction of the evolution of the disease over time. Methods Official freely available data about the number of infected at the finest possible level of spatial areal aggregation (Italian provinces) are used to model the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections at local level. An endemic-epidemic time-series mixed-effects generalized linear model for areal disease counts has been implemented to understand and predict spatio-temporal diffusion of the phenomenon. Results Three subcomponents characterize the fitted model. The first describes the transmission of the illness within provinces; the second accounts for the transmission between nearby provinces; the third is related to the evolution of the disease over time. At the local level, the provinces first concerned by containment measures are those that are not affected by the effects of spatial neighbours. On the other hand, the component accounting for the spatial interaction with surrounding areas is prevalent for provinces that are strongly involved by contagions. Moreover, the proposed model provides good forecasts for the number of infections at local level while controlling for delayed reporting. Conclusions A strong evidence is found that strict control measures implemented in some provinces efficiently break contagions and limit the spread to nearby areas. While containment policies may potentially be more effective if planned considering the peculiarities of local territories, the effective and homogeneous enforcement of control measures at national level is needed to prevent the disease control being delayed or missed as a whole. This may also apply at international level where, as it is for the European Union or the United States, the internal border checks among states have largely been abolished.

scholarly journals Modelling and predicting the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 in Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Giuliani ◽  
Maria Michela Dickson ◽  
Giuseppe Espa ◽  
Flavio Santi
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Italian Provinces ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Surrounding Areas ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background: The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in China at the end of 2019 and it has since spread in few months all over the World. Italy was one of the first Western countries who faced the health emergency and is one of the countries most severely affected by the pandemic. The diffusion of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy has followed a peculiar spatial pattern, however the attention of the scientific community has so far focussed almost exclusively on the prediction of the evolution of the disease over time. Methods: Official freely available data about the number of infected at the finest possible level of spatial areal aggregation (Italian provinces) are used to model the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections at local level. An endemic-epidemic time-series mixed-effects generalized linear model for areal disease counts has been implemented to understand and predict spatio-temporal diffusion of the phenomenon. Results: Three subcomponents characterize the fitted model. The first describes the transmission of the illness within provinces; the second accounts for the transmission between nearby provinces; the third is related to the evolution of the disease over time. At the local level, the provinces first concerned by containment measures are those that are not affected by the effects of spatial neighbours. On the other hand, the component accounting for the spatial interaction with surrounding areas is prevalent for provinces that are strongly involved by contagions. Moreover, the proposed model provides good forecasts for the number of infections at local level while controlling for delayed reporting. Conclusions: A strong evidence is found that strict control measures implemented in some provinces efficiently break contagions and limit the spread to nearby areas. While containment policies may potentially be more effective if planned considering the peculiarities of local territories, the effective and homogeneous enforcement of control measures at national level is needed to prevent the disease control being delayed or missed as a whole. This may also apply at international level where, as it is for the EU or the USA, the internal border checks among states have largely been abolished.

scholarly journals Modelling and predicting the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 in Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Giuliani ◽  
Maria Michela Dickson ◽  
Giuseppe Espa ◽  
Flavio Santi
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Italian Provinces ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Surrounding Areas ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background: The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in China at the end of 2019 and it has since spread in few months all over the World. Italy was one of the first Western countries who faced the health emergency and is one of the countries most severely affected by the pandemic. The diffusion of COVID-19 in Italy has followed a peculiar spatial pattern, however the attention of the scientific community has so far focussed almost exclusively on the prediction of the evolution of the disease over time. Methods: Official freely available data about the number of infected at the finest possible level of spatial areal aggregation (Italian provinces) are used to model the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections at local level. An endemic-epidemic time-series mixed-effects generalized linear model for areal disease counts has been implemented to understand and predict spatio-temporal diffusion of the phenomenon. Results: Three subcomponents characterize the fitted model. The first describes the transmission of the illness within provinces; the second accounts for the transmission between nearby provinces; the third is related to the evolution of the disease over time. At the local level, the provinces first concerned by containment measures are those that are not affected by the effects of spatial neighbours. On the other hand, the component accounting for the spatial interaction with surrounding areas is prevalent for provinces that are strongly involved by contagions. Moreover, the proposed model provides good forecasts for the number of infections at local level while controlling for delayed reporting. Conclusions: A strong evidence is found that strict control measures implemented in some provinces efficiently break contagions and limit the spread to nearby areas. While containment policies may potentially be more effective if planned considering the peculiarities of local territories, the effective and homogeneous enforcement of control measures at national level is needed to prevent the disease control being delayed or missed as a whole. This may also apply at international level where, as it is for the EU or the USA, the internal border checks among states have largely been abolished.

scholarly journals Modelling and predicting the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 in Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Giuliani ◽  
Maria Michela Dickson ◽  
Giuseppe Espa ◽  
Flavio Santi
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Evolution ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has been firstly detected in China at the end of 2019 and it spread in few months all over the world. Italy is the second country in the World for number of cases, and the diffusion of COVID-19 has followed a peculiar spatial pattern. However, the interest of scientific community has been devoted almost exclusively to the prediction of the disease evolution over time so far. Methods: Official freely available data about the number of infected at the finest possible level of spatial areal aggregation (Italian provinces) are used to model the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections at local level. An endemic-epidemic time-series mixed-effects generalized linear model for areal disease counts has been implemented to understand and predict spatio-temporal diffusion of the phenomenon. Results: Three subcomponents characterize the fitted model. The first describes the transmission of the illness within provinces; the second accounts for the transmission between nearby provinces; the third is related to the evolution of the disease over time. At the local level, the provinces first concerned by containment measures are those that are not affected by the effects of spatial neighbours. On the other hand, the component accounting for the spatial interaction with surrounding areas is prevalent for provinces that are strongly involved by contagions. Moreover, the proposed model provides good forecasts of the number of infections at local level while controlling for delayed reporting. Conclusions: A strong evidence is found that strict control measures implemented in some provinces efficiently break contagions and limit the spread to nearby areas. While containment policies may potentially be more effective if planned considering the peculiarities of local territories, the effective and homogeneous enforcement of control measures at national level is needed to prevent the disease control being delayed or missed as a whole. This may also apply at international level where, as it is for the EU or the USA, the internal border checks among states have largely been abolished.

scholarly journals The Role of Spatio-Temporal Information to Govern the COVID-19 Pandemic: A European Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 166
Author(s):  
Hartmut Müller ◽  
Marije Louwsma
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
National Level ◽  
Temporal Information ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Member States ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Spatio Temporal

The Covid-19 pandemic put a heavy burden on member states in the European Union. To govern the pandemic, having access to reliable geo-information is key for monitoring the spatial distribution of the outbreak over time. This study aims to analyze the role of spatio-temporal information in governing the pandemic in the European Union and its member states. The European Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) system and selected national dashboards from member states were assessed to analyze which spatio-temporal information was used, how the information was visualized and whether this changed over the course of the pandemic. Initially, member states focused on their own jurisdiction by creating national dashboards to monitor the pandemic. Information between member states was not aligned. Producing reliable data and timeliness reporting was problematic, just like selecting indictors to monitor the spatial distribution and intensity of the outbreak. Over the course of the pandemic, with more knowledge about the virus and its characteristics, interventions of member states to govern the outbreak were better aligned at the European level. However, further integration and alignment of public health data, statistical data and spatio-temporal data could provide even better information for governments and actors involved in managing the outbreak, both at national and supra-national level. The Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe (INSPIRE) initiative and the NUTS system provide a framework to guide future integration and extension of existing systems.

scholarly journals Underneath Kyoto: Emerging Subnational Government Initiatives and Incipient Issue-Bundling Opportunities in China and the United States

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter H. Koehn
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stress Reduction ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Healthy Human ◽  
Republic Of China ◽  
Stabilization Policies

At present, progress in mitigating global GHG emissions is impeded by political stalemate at the national level in the United States and the People's Republic of China. Through the conceptual lenses of multilevel governance and framing politics, the article analyzes emerging policy initiatives among subnational governments in both countries. Effective subnational emission-mitigating action requires framing climatic-stabilization policies in terms of local co-benefits associated with environmental protection, health promotion, and economic advantage. In an impressive group of US states and cities, and increasingly at the local level in China, public concerns about air pollution, consumption and waste management, traffic congestion, health threats, the ability to attract tourists, and/or diminishing resources are legitimizing policy developments that carry the co-benefit of controlling GHG emissions. A co-benefits framing strategy that links individual and community concerns for morbidity, mortality, stress reduction, and healthy human development for all with GHG-emission limitation/reduction is especially likely to resonate powerfully at the subnational level throughout China and the United States.

A Comprehensive Review of Spirit Drink Safety Standards and Regulations from an International Perspective

2017 ◽  
Vol 80 (3) ◽  
pp. 431-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Na Pang ◽  
Zhao-Jie Li ◽  
Jing-Yu Chen ◽  
Li-Juan Gao ◽  
Bei-Zhong Han
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Perspective ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Alcoholic Beverages ◽  
Hydrocyanic Acid ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Safety Standards ◽  
Standards And Regulations

ABSTRACT Standards and regulations related to spirit drinks have been established by different countries and international organizations to ensure the safety and quality of spirits. Here, we introduce the principles of food safety and quality standards for alcoholic beverages and then compare the key indicators used in the distinct standards of the Codex Alimentarius Commission, the European Union, the People's Republic of China, the United States, Canada, and Australia. We also discuss in detail the “maximum level” of the following main contaminants of spirit drinks: methanol, higher alcohols, ethyl carbamate, hydrocyanic acid, heavy metals, mycotoxins, phthalates, and aldehydes. Furthermore, the control measures used for potential hazards are introduced. Harmonization of the current requirements based on comprehensive scope analysis and the risk assessment approach will enhance both the trade and quality of distilled spirits. This review article provides valuable information that will enable producers, traders, governments, and researchers to increase their knowledge of spirit drink safety requirements, control measures, and research trends.

La complessitŕ dei mercati energetici e la necessitŕ di una regolazione multilivello

2009 ◽  
pp. 121-152
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Franco Ferrari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
European Union ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Multilevel Governance ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
The European Union

- The energy markets are very complex, because, on the one hand, they imply several different activities and, on the other hand, they involve various levels of govern- 183 ment. The energy market is divided indeed in different segments: supply (generation or purchasing), transmission, distribution and sale, which are allocated at different levels of government, from the international and European level (with reference to the security of energy supply), to the local level (with specific regard to the distribution and sale). This complexity makes the energy sector particularly critical, under the pressure of political interests and economical needs. Another sensitive point is linked with the environmental protection, since the consumption of energy is one of the most polluting human activities, and the demand of energy is growing up together with the economical growth of the developing Countries. This problem is increasingly discussed at the international level, with reference to the climate change issue, in order to plan a sustainable development for the whole globe: because of it, the Kyoto Protocol was issued within the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change. It establishes legally binding commitments for the reduction of four greenhouse gases for all the 183 ratifying Countries, according the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, and provides for the promotion of renewable energy. The European Union ratified the Protocol implementing the relative obligations through, for instance, the creation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The European Union most of all addressed the competitive issue, since the 70s, in order to achieve the result to create a free energy market in Europe. The last results of the European energy policy were the directives on electricity and natural gas in 2004, that imposed the complete opening of the energy markets in almost all the European Countries (with few exceptions). The implementation of the European directives requires the intervention of the national level, since each Country has to modify its own regulatory framework, in order to comply with the directives. Everywhere in Europe, this process faces with several difficulties, but it is particularly hard in Italy, since the energy sector is traditionally public owned. Indeed, in our Country, the privatization and liberalization processes are strictly linked to another trend: the decentralization of legislative and administrative powers from the State to the Regions and Local Communities. Thus it is evident that the global governance of the energy sector, for its complexity and its sensibility, can only derive from a network of interventions by several levels of government, and different international, national and local actors, which realize a typical case of multilevel governance.Key words: Energy markets, competition, sustainable development, multilevel governance.JEL classifications: K21, K23.Parole chiave: Mercato energetico, concorrenza, sviluppo sostenibile, multilevel Governance.

Analysis of the US Privacy Model

2021 ◽  
pp. 1818-1825
Author(s):  
Francisco García Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Data Privacy ◽  
Personal Information ◽  
National Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
General Data Protection Regulation ◽  
Privacy Laws ◽  
The Us ◽  
General Data ◽  
State Of Art

The creation of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) constituted an enormous advance in data privacy, empowering the online consumers, who were doomed to the complete loss of control of their personal information. Although it may first seem that it only affects companies within the European Union, the regulation clearly states that every company who has businesses in the EU must be compliant with the GDPR. Other non-EU countries, like the United States, have seen the benefits of the GDPR and are already developing their own privacy laws. In this article, the most important updates introduced by the GDPR concerning US corporations will be discussed, as well as how American companies can become compliant with the regulation. Besides, a comparison between the GDPR and the state of art of privacy in the US will be presented, highlighting similarities and disparities at the national level and in states of particular interest.

Analysis of the US Privacy Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-52
Author(s):  
Francisco García Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Data Privacy ◽  
Personal Information ◽  
National Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
General Data Protection Regulation ◽  
Privacy Laws ◽  
The Us ◽  
General Data ◽  
The Eu

The creation of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) constituted an enormous advance in data privacy, empowering the online consumers, who were doomed to the complete loss of control of their personal information. Although it may first seem that it only affects companies within the European Union, the regulation clearly states that every company who has businesses in the EU must be compliant with the GDPR. Other non-EU countries, like the United States, have seen the benefits of the GDPR and are already developing their own privacy laws. In this article, the most important updates introduced by the GDPR concerning US corporations will be discussed, as well as how American companies can become compliant with the regulation. Besides, a comparison between the GDPR and the state of art of privacy in the US will be presented, highlighting similarities and disparities at the national level and in states of particular interest.

scholarly journals Integration Practices in Migration Management: Experience of Some European Union Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 83-99
Author(s):  
Olga A. Persidskaya
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Host Community ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Social Functions ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
Integration Policies

The paper considers institutional mechanisms and substantive approaches to managing the processes of migrant integration into the host community. The analysis is carried out in the framework of studying practical models for regulating the transformation of polyethnic communities and uses data from several countries in the European Union. It is shown that the models of practical regulation of integration processes are based on the understanding of integration as a two-way process and are primarily expressed in changes in social institutions and relations between them. Thus, at the supranational level a combination of directive and recommendatory forms of influence on integration policies is significant, at the national level – the principles of individual and inclusive approaches within the framework of the introduction of a set of regulatory policies of the “mainstream”, at the local level – integration initiatives of the municipal level and interaction with the non-governmental sector. Of special note is the significant role of monitoring integration processes and integration policies. It has been noted that integration practices in Russia are based on understanding integration as a one-sided process and contribute to the realization of its cultural function, while in the EU countries – to its structural and social functions. The paper offers the conclusion about the possibility of applying some of the considered mechanisms and approaches in strategies for managing and regulating migration processes in the Russian Federation.

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