Short-term effects of rainfall on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease and related spatial heterogeneity: evidence from 143 cities in mainland China

Abstract Background Numerous studies have demonstrated the potential association between rainfall and hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), but the results are inconsistent. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between rainfall and HFMD based on a multicity study and explore the potential sources of spatial heterogeneity. Methods We retrieved the daily counts of childhood HFMD and the meteorological variables of the 143 cities in mainland China between 2009 and 2014. A common time series regression model was applied to quantify the association between rainfall and HFMD for each of the 143 cities. Then, we adopted the meta-regression model to pool the city-specific estimates and explore the sources of heterogeneity by incorporating city-specific characteristics. Results The overall pooled estimation suggested a nonlinear exposure-response relationship between rainfall and HFMD. Once rainfall exceeded 15 mm, the HFMD risk stopped increasing linearly and began to plateau with the excessive risk ratio (ERR) peaking at 21 mm of rainfall (ERR = 3.46, 95% CI: 2.05, 4.88). We also found significant heterogeneity in the rainfall-HFMD relationships (I2 = 52.75%, P < 0.001). By incorporating the city-specific characteristics into the meta-regression model, temperature and student density can explain a substantial proportion of spatial heterogeneity with I2 statistics that decreased by 5.29 and 6.80% at most, respectively. Conclusions Our findings verified the nonlinear association between rainfall and HFMD. The rainfall-HFMD relationship also varies depending on locations. Therefore, the estimation of the rain-HFMD relationship of one location should not be generalized to another location.

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Using an autologistic regression model to identify spatial risk factors and spatial risk patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China

BMC Public Health ◽

10.1186/1471-2458-14-358 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 49

Author(s):

Yan-Chen Bo ◽

Chao Song ◽

Jin-Feng Wang ◽

Xiao-Wen Li

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Regression Model ◽

Mainland China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Autologistic Regression ◽

Spatial Risk ◽

Foot And Mouth

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Short-Term Effects of Climatic Variables on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Mainland China, 2008–2013: A Multilevel Spatial Poisson Regression Model Accounting for Overdispersion

PLoS ONE ◽

10.1371/journal.pone.0147054 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. e0147054 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Jiaqiang Liao ◽

Shicheng Yu ◽

Fang Yang ◽

Min Yang ◽

Yuehua Hu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Regression Model ◽

Poisson Regression ◽

Mainland China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Climatic Variables ◽

Poisson Regression Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Spatial Poisson Regression

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The spatial heterogeneity of the associations between relative humidity and pediatric hand, foot and mouth disease: Evidence from a nation-wide multicity study from mainland China

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136103 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 707 ◽

pp. 136103 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Zhenyan Bo ◽

Yue Ma ◽

Zhaorui Chang ◽

Tao Zhang ◽

Fengfeng Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Relative Humidity ◽

Spatial Heterogeneity ◽

Mainland China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Foot And Mouth

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Assessment of foot-and-mouth disease risk areas in mainland China based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-424752/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wang Haoran ◽

Xiao Jianhua ◽

Ouyang Maolin ◽

Gao Hongyan ◽

Bie Jia ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Decision Analysis ◽

Disease Risk ◽

Mainland China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Risk Areas ◽

And Control

Abstract Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. As a transboundary animal disease, the prevention and control of FMD are important. This study was based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess FMD risk areas in mainland China. Ten risk factors were identified for constructing risk maps by scoring, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the criteria weights of all factors. Different risk factors had different units and attributes, and fuzzy membership was used to standardize the risk factors. The weighted linear combination (WLC) and one-at-a-time (OAT) were used to obtain risk and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis. Results Four major risk areas were identified in mainland China, including western (Xinjiang and Tibet), southern (Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Guangdong), northern (Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia), and eastern (Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong). We found spring as the main season for FMD outbreaks. Risk areas were associated with the distance to previous outbreak points, grazing areas and cattle density. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the risk map had good predictive power (AUC = 0.8532). Conclusions These results can be used to delineate FMD risk areas in mainland China, and provinces can adopt the targeted preventive measures and control strategies.

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The temporal characteristics of the lag-response relationship and related key time points between ambient temperature and hand, foot and mouth disease: A multicity study from mainland China

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141679 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 749 ◽

pp. 141679

Author(s):

Xiaowei Yi ◽

Zhaorui Chang ◽

Xing Zhao ◽

Yue Ma ◽

Fengfeng Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ambient Temperature ◽

Mainland China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Response Relationship ◽

Temporal Characteristics ◽

Time Points ◽

Foot And Mouth

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Relative transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease from male to female individuals

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268819001729 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 147 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Yuxue Liao ◽

Yaqing He ◽

Yan Lu ◽

Hong Yang ◽

Yanhua Su ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Relative Rate ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Male And Female ◽

Shenzhen City ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

The Difference ◽

The City ◽

Death Cases ◽

Male To Female

Abstract Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely and leads to high disease burden in many countries. However, relative transmissibility from male to female individuals remains unclear. HFMD surveillance database was built in Shenzhen City from 2013 to 2017. An intersex transmission susceptible–infectious–recovered model was developed to calculate the transmission relative rate among male individuals, among female individuals, from male to female and from female to male. Two indicators, ratio of transmission relative rate (R β ) and relative transmissibility index (RTI), were developed to assess the relative transmissibility of male vs. female. During the study period, 270 347 HFMD cases were reported in the city, among which 16 were death cases with a fatality of 0.0059%. Reported incidence of total cases, male cases and female cases was 0.0057 (range: 0.0036–0.0058), 0.0052 (range: 0.0032–0.0053) and 0.0044 (range: 0.0026–0.0047), respectively. The difference was statistically significant between male and female (t = 3.046, P = 0.002). R β of male vs. female, female vs. female, from female to male vs. female and from male to female vs. female was 7.69, 1.00, 1.74 and 7.13, respectively. RTI of male vs. female, female vs. female, from female to male vs. female and from male to female vs. female was 3.08, 1.00, 1.88 and 1.43, respectively. Transmissibility of HFMD is different between male and female individuals. Male cases seem to be more transmissible than female.

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