scholarly journals Primary care practices’ ability to predict future risk of expenditures and hospitalization using risk stratification and segmentation

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Dorr ◽  
Rachel L. Ross ◽  
Deborah Cohen ◽  
Devan Kansagara ◽  
Katrina Ramsey ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Patients with complex health care needs may suffer adverse outcomes from fragmented and delayed care, reducing well-being and increasing health care costs. Health reform efforts, especially those in primary care, attempt to mitigate risk of adverse outcomes by better targeting resources to those most in need. However, predicting who is susceptible to adverse outcomes, such as unplanned hospitalizations, ED visits, or other potentially avoidable expenditures, can be difficult, and providing intensive levels of resources to all patients is neither wanted nor efficient. Our objective was to understand if primary care teams can predict patient risk better than standard risk scores. Methods Six primary care practices risk stratified their entire patient population over a 2-year period, and worked to mitigate risk for those at high risk through care management and coordination. Individual patient risk scores created by the practices were collected and compared to a common risk score (Hierarchical Condition Categories) in their ability to predict future expenditures, ED visits, and hospitalizations. Accuracy of predictions, sensitivity, positive predictive values (PPV), and c-statistics were calculated for each risk scoring type. Analyses were stratified by whether the practice used intuition alone, an algorithm alone, or adjudicated an algorithmic risk score. Results In all, 40,342 patients were risk stratified. Practice scores had 38.6% agreement with HCC scores on identification of high-risk patients. For the 3,381 patients with reliable outcomes data, accuracy was high (0.71–0.88) but sensitivity and PPV were low (0.16–0.40). Practice-created scores had 0.02–0.14 lower sensitivity, specificity and PPV compared to HCC in prediction of outcomes. Practices using adjudication had, on average, .16 higher sensitivity. Conclusions Practices using simple risk stratification techniques had slightly worse accuracy in predicting common outcomes than HCC, but adjudication improved prediction.

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carly A. Conran ◽  
Zhuqing Shi ◽  
William Kyle Resurreccion ◽  
Rong Na ◽  
Brian T. Helfand ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Genome-wide association studies have identified thousands of disease-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A subset of these SNPs may be additively combined to generate genetic risk scores (GRSs) that confer risk for a specific disease. Although the clinical validity of GRSs to predict risk of specific diseases has been well established, there is still a great need to determine their clinical utility by applying GRSs in primary care for cancer risk assessment and targeted intervention. Methods This clinical study involved 281 primary care patients without a personal history of breast, prostate or colorectal cancer who were 40–70 years old. DNA was obtained from a pre-existing biobank at NorthShore University HealthSystem. GRSs for colorectal cancer and breast or prostate cancer were calculated and shared with participants through their primary care provider. Additional data was gathered using questionnaires as well as electronic medical record information. A t-test or Chi-square test was applied for comparison of demographic and key clinical variables among different groups. Results The median age of the 281 participants was 58 years and the majority were female (66.6%). One hundred one (36.9%) participants received 2 low risk scores, 99 (35.2%) received 1 low risk and 1 average risk score, 37 (13.2%) received 1 low risk and 1 high risk score, 23 (8.2%) received 2 average risk scores, 21 (7.5%) received 1 average risk and 1 high risk score, and no one received 2 high risk scores. Before receiving GRSs, younger patients and women reported significantly more worry about risk of developing cancer. After receiving GRSs, those who received at least one high GRS reported significantly more worry about developing cancer. There were no significant differences found between gender, age, or GRS with regards to participants’ reported optimism about their future health neither before nor after receiving GRS results. Conclusions Genetic risk scores that quantify an individual’s risk of developing breast, prostate and colorectal cancers as compared with a race-defined population average risk have potential clinical utility as a tool for risk stratification and to guide cancer screening in a primary care setting.


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrien Danhieux ◽  
Veerle Buffel ◽  
Anthony Pairon ◽  
Asma Benkheil ◽  
Roy Remmen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic affects the processes of routine care for chronic patients. A better understanding helps to increase resilience of the health system and prepare adequately for next waves of the pandemic. Methods A qualitative study was conducted in 16 primary care practices: 6 solo working, 4 monodisciplinary and 7 multidisciplinary. Twenty-one people (doctors, nurses, dieticians) were interviewed, using semi-structured video interviews. A thematic analysis was done using the domains of the Chronic Care Model (CCM). Results Three themes emerged: changes in health care organization, risk stratification and self-management support. All participating practices reported drastic changes in organization with a collective shift towards COVID-19 care, and reduction of chronic care activities, less consultations, and staff responsible for self-management support put on hold. A transition to digital support did not occur. Few practitioners had a systematic approach to identify and contact high-risk patients for early follow-up. A practice with a pre-established structured team collaboration managed to continue most chronic care elements. Generally, practitioners expected no effects of the temporary disruption for patients, although they expressed concern about patients already poorly regulated. Conclusion Our findings show a disruption of the delivery of chronic care in the Belgium prim care context. In such contexts, the establishment of the CCM can facilitate continuity of care in crisis times. Short term actions should be directed to facilitate identifying high-risk patients and to develop a practice organization plan to organize chronic care and use digital channels for support, especially to vulnerable patients, during next waves of the epidemic.


2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (31_suppl) ◽  
pp. 76-76
Author(s):  
Jeff Myers ◽  
Suzanne Strasberg ◽  
Kathi Carroll ◽  
Zabin Dhanji ◽  
Ingrid Harle ◽  
...  

76 Background: In Ontario, the Ministry of Health and Long Term Care’s (MOHLTC) uses Quality Improvement Plans (QIPs) to drive system improvement aimed at providing high value, high quality care for all. To support the introduction of QIPs into the primary care sector, Cancer Care Ontario has developed an Advance Care Planning (ACP) toolkit for practices that include ACP as part of their annual QIP. ACP is an ongoing and dynamic process that involves a capable individual reflecting on their current values and beliefs for their health care, communicating their personal wishes for future health care and identifying an individual who will make decisions on their behalf in the event that they are unable to provide informed consent. The process is iterative and wishes may change over time with changes in health status. Methods: The ACP QIP was developed based on the Plan, Do, Study, Act cycle of continuous quality improvement. The ACP QIP provides primary care practices with detailed instructions on how to implement, monitor and report on an ACP Quality Improvement initiative. Importantly, the ACP QIP provides guidance and practical tools for developing objectives, establishing targets, and identifying measures and baselines for performance. CCO is actively promoting the ACP QIP in an effort to encourage uptake and broad adoption across Ontario. Results: There is now evidence that with ACP there is a greater likelihood EOL wishes will be both known and followed resulting in improved EOL care. ACP is also associated with decreased distress among the family members. Conclusions: Creating an ACP QIP supports primary care’s focus on advancing quality patient care. Importantly, implementing the ACP QIP into primary care practices has the potential to improve EOL care and secondarily reduce health care costs ultimately working towards achieving the triple aim of “better care, better health, and lower costs”.


2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (01) ◽  
pp. 3-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bonnie M. Vest ◽  
Victoria M. Hall ◽  
Linda S. Kahn ◽  
Arvela R. Heider ◽  
Nancy Maloney ◽  
...  

Aims The purpose of this qualitative evaluation was to explore the experience of implementing routine telemonitoring (TM) in real-world primary care settings from the perspective of those delivering the intervention; namely the TM staff, and report on lessons learned that could inform future projects of this type. Background Routine TM for high-risk patients within primary care practices may help improve chronic disease control and reduce complications, including unnecessary hospital admissions. However, little is known about how to integrate routine TM in busy primary care practices. A TM pilot for diabetic patients was attempted in six primary care practices as part of the Beacon Community in Western New York. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives of three TM agencies (n=8) participating in the pilot. Interviews were conducted over the phone or in person and lasted ~30 min. Interviews were audio-taped and transcribed. Analysis was conducted using immersion-crystallization to identify themes. Findings TM staff revealed several themes related to the experience of delivering TM in real-world primary care: (1) the nurse–patient relationship is central to a successful TM experience, (2) TM is a useful tool for understanding socio-economic context and its impact on patients’ health, (3) TM staff anecdotally report important potential impacts on patient health, and (4) integrating TM into primary care practices needs to be planned carefully. Conclusions This qualitative study identified challenges and unexpected benefits that might inform future efforts. Communication and integration between the TM agency and the practice, including the designation of a point person within the office to coordinate TM and help address the broader contextual needs of patients, are important considerations for future implementation. The role of the TM nurse in developing trust with patients and uncovering the social and economic context within which patients manage their diabetes was an unexpected benefit.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleida Ringwald ◽  
Katja Goetz ◽  
Jost Steinhaeuser ◽  
Nina Fleischmann ◽  
Alexandra Schüssler ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Continuity of care is associated with many benefits for patients and health care systems. Therefore measuring care coordination - the deliberate organization of patient care activities between two or more participants - is especially needed to identify entries for improvement. The aim of this study was the translation and cultural adaptation of the Medical Home Care Coordination Survey (MHCCS) into German, and the examination of the psychometric properties of the resulting German versions of the MHCCS-P (patient version) and MHCCS-H (healthcare team version). Methods We conducted a paper-based, cross-sectional survey in primary care practices in three German federal states (Schleswig-Holstein, Hamburg, Baden-Württemberg) with patients and health care team members from May 2018 to April 2019. Descriptive item analysis, factor analysis, internal consistency and convergent, discriminant and predictive validity of the German instrument versions were calculated by using SPSS 25.0 (Inc., IBM). Results Response rates were 43% (n = 350) for patients and 34% (n = 141) for healthcare team members. In total, 300 patient questionnaires and 140 team member questionnaires could be included into further analysis. Exploratory factor analyses resulted in three domains in the MHCCS-D-P and seven domains in the MHCCS-D-H: “link to community resources”, “communication”, “care transitions”, and additionally “self-management”, “accountability”, “information technology for quality assurance”, and “information technology supporting patient care” for the MHCCS-D-H. The domains showed acceptable and good internal consistency (α = 0.838 to α = 0.936 for the MHCCS-D-P and α = 0.680 to α = 0.819 for the MHCCS-D-H). As 77% of patients (n = 232) and 63% of health care team members denied to have or make written care plans, items regarding the “plan of care” of the original MHCCS have been removed from the MHCCS-D. Conclusions The German versions of the Medical Home Care Coordination Survey for patients and healthcare team members are reliable instruments in measuring the care coordination in German primary care practices. Practicability is high since the total number of items is low (9 for patients and 27 for team members).


2003 ◽  
Vol 51 (7) ◽  
pp. 979-984 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deirdre R. Bland ◽  
Elizabeth Dugan ◽  
Stuart J. Cohen ◽  
John Preisser ◽  
Cralen C. Davis ◽  
...  

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