scholarly journals Evaluation and improvement of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) for COVID-19: a multi-hospital study

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ewan Carr ◽  
Rebecca Bendayan ◽  
Daniel Bean ◽  
Matt Stammers ◽  
Wenjuan Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The National Early Warning Score (NEWS2) is currently recommended in the UK for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. We aimed to evaluate NEWS2 for the prediction of severe COVID-19 outcome and identify and validate a set of blood and physiological parameters routinely collected at hospital admission to improve upon the use of NEWS2 alone for medium-term risk stratification. Methods Training cohorts comprised 1276 patients admitted to King’s College Hospital National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust with COVID-19 disease from 1 March to 30 April 2020. External validation cohorts included 6237 patients from five UK NHS Trusts (Guy’s and St Thomas’ Hospitals, University Hospitals Southampton, University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust, University College London Hospitals, University Hospitals Birmingham), one hospital in Norway (Oslo University Hospital), and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital). The outcome was severe COVID-19 disease (transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) or death) at 14 days after hospital admission. Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity, and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) measured at hospital admission were considered in the models. Results A baseline model of ‘NEWS2 + age’ had poor-to-moderate discrimination for severe COVID-19 infection at 14 days (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in training cohort = 0.700, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.680, 0.722; Brier score = 0.192, 95% CI 0.186, 0.197). A supplemented model adding eight routinely collected blood and physiological parameters (supplemental oxygen flow rate, urea, age, oxygen saturation, C-reactive protein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) improved discrimination (AUC = 0.735; 95% CI 0.715, 0.757), and these improvements were replicated across seven UK and non-UK sites. However, there was evidence of miscalibration with the model tending to underestimate risks in most sites. Conclusions NEWS2 score had poor-to-moderate discrimination for medium-term COVID-19 outcome which raises questions about its use as a screening tool at hospital admission. Risk stratification was improved by including readily available blood and physiological parameters measured at hospital admission, but there was evidence of miscalibration in external sites. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the use of early warning scores for COVID.

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsi Kemp ◽  
Janne Alakare ◽  
Veli-Pekka Harjola ◽  
Timo Strandberg ◽  
Jukka Tolonen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The aim of the emergency department (ED) triage is to recognize critically ill patients and to allocate resources. No strong evidence for accuracy of the current triage instruments, especially for the older adults, exists. We evaluated the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and a 3-level triage assessment as risk predictors for frail older adults visiting the ED. Methods This prospective, observational study was performed in a Finnish ED. The data were collected in a six-month period and included were ≥ 75-year-old residents with Clinical Frailty Scale score of at least four. We analyzed the predictive values of NEWS2 and the three-level triage scale for 30-day mortality, hospital admission, high dependency unit (HDU) and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, a count of 72-h and 30-day revisits, and ED length-of-stay (LOS). Results A total of 1711 ED visits were included. Median for age, CFS, LOS and NEWS2 were 85 years, 6 points, 6.2 h and 1 point, respectively. 30-day mortality was 96/1711. At triage, 69, 356 and 1278 of patients were assessed as red, yellow and green, respectively. There were 1103 admissions, of them 31 to an HDU facility, none to ICU. With NEWS2 and triage score, AUCs for 30-day mortality prediction were 0.70 (0.64–0.76) and 0.62 (0.56–0.68); for hospital admission prediction 0.62 (0.60–0.65) and 0.55 (0.52–0.56), and for HDU admission 0.72 (0.61–0.83) and 0.80 (0.70–0.90), respectively. The NEWS2 divided into risk groups of low, medium and high did not predict the ED LOS (p = 0.095). There was a difference in ED LOS between the red/yellow and as red/green patient groups (p < 0.001) but not between the yellow/green groups (p = 0.59). There were 48 and 351 revisits within 72 h and 30 days, respectively. With NEWS2 AUCs for 72-h and 30-day revisit prediction were 0.48 (95% CI 0.40–0.56) and 0.47 (0.44–0.51), respectively; with triage score 0.48 (0.40–0.56) and 0.49 (0.46–0.52), respectively. Conclusions The NEWS2 and a local 3-level triage scale are statistically significant, but poor in accuracy, in predicting 30-day mortality, and HDU admission but not ED LOS or revisit rates for frail older adults. NEWS2 also seems to predict hospital admission.


2018 ◽  
Vol 47 ◽  
pp. 222-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young Seok Lee ◽  
Jae Woo Choi ◽  
Yeon Hee Park ◽  
Chaeuk Chung ◽  
Dong Il Park ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsi Kemp ◽  
Janne Alakare ◽  
Veli-Pekka Harjola ◽  
Timo Strandberg ◽  
Jukka Tolonen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The aim of the emergency department (ED) triage is to recognize critically ill patients and to allocate resources. No strong evidence for accuracy of the current triage instruments, especially for the older adults, exists. We evaluated the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and a 3-level triage assessment as risk predictors for frail older adults visiting the ED.Methods This prospective, observational study was performed in a Finnish ED. The data were collected in a six-month period and included were ≥75-year-old residents with Clinical Frailty Scale score of at least four. We analyzed the predictive values of NEWS2 and the three-level triage scale for 30-day mortality, hospital admission, high dependency unit (HDU) and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, a count of 72-hour and 30-day revisits, and ED length-of-stay (LOS). Results A total of 1711 ED visits were included. Median for age, CFS, LOS and NEWS2 were 85 years, 6 points, 6.2 hours and 1 point, respectively. 30-day mortality was 96/1711. At triage, 69, 356 and 1278 of patients were assessed as red, yellow and green, respectively. There were 1103 admissions, of them 31 to an HDU facility, none to ICU.With NEWS2 and triage score, AUCs for 30-day mortality prediction were 0.70 (0.64-0.76) and 0.62 (0.56-0.68); for hospital admission prediction 0.62 (0.60-0.65) and 0.55 (0.52-0.56), and for HDU admission 0.72 (0.61-0.83) and 0.80 (0.70-0.90), respectively.The NEWS2 divided into risk groups of low, medium and high did not predict the ED LOS (p=0.095). There was a difference in ED LOS between the red/yellow and as red/green patient groups (p<0.001) but not between the yellow/green groups (p=0.59).There were 48 and 351 revisits within 72 hours and 30 days, respectively. With NEWS2 AUCs for 72-hour and 30-day revisit prediction were 0.48 (95% CI 0.40-0.56) and 0.47 (0.44-0.51), respectively; with triage score 0.48 (0.40-0.56) and 0.49 (0.46-0.52), respectively.Conclusions The NEWS2 and a local 3-level triage scale are statistically significant, but poor in accuracy, in predicting 30-day mortality, and HDU admission but not ED LOS or revisit rates for frail older adults. NEWS2 also seems to predict hospital admission


Author(s):  
Ewan Carr ◽  
Rebecca Bendayan ◽  
Daniel Bean ◽  
Matt Stammers ◽  
Wenjuan Wang ◽  
...  

AbstractObjectivesTo evaluate the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2), currently recommended in the UK for risk-stratification of severe COVID-19 outcomes, and subsequently identify and validate a minimal set of common parameters taken at hospital admission that improve the score.DesignRetrospective observational cohort with internal and multi-hospital external validation.SettingSecondary care.InterventionsNot applicable.ParticipantsMain outcome measuresResultsTraining and temporal external validation cohorts comprised 1464 patients admitted to King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust (KCH) with COVID-19 disease from 1st March to 30th April 2020. External validation cohorts included 3869 patients from two UK NHS Trusts (Guys and St Thomas’ Hospitals, GSTT and University Hospitals Southampton, UHS) and two hospitals in Wuhan, China (Wuhan Sixth Hospital and Taikang Tongji Hospital).The primary outcome was patient status at 14 days after symptom onset categorised as severe disease (transferred to intensive care unit or death). Age, physiological measures, blood biomarkers, sex, ethnicity and comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases) were included.ConclusionsNEWS2 score on admission was a weak predictor of severe COVID-19 infection (AUC = 0.628). Adding age and common blood tests (CRP, neutrophil count, estimated GFR and albumin) provided substantial improvements to a risk stratification model, particularly in relation to sensitivity, but performance was only moderate (AUC = 0.753). Improvement over NEWS2 remained robust and generalisable in GSTT (AUC = 0.817), UHS (AUC = 0.835) and Wuhan hospitals (AUC = 0.918).Adding age and a minimal set of blood parameters to NEWS2 improves the detection of patients likely to develop severe COVID-19 outcomes. This finding was replicated across NHS and non-UK hospitals. Adding a few common parameters to a pre-existing acuity score allows rapid and easy implementation of this risk-scoring system.Key MessagesThe National Early Warning Score (NEWS2), currently recommended for severe COVID-19 disease in the UK shows overall poor discrimination for severe outcomes (transfer to ICU or death). It can be improved by the addition of a small number of blood and physiological parameters routinely measured at hospital admission.The addition of age and a minimal set of common blood tests (C-reactive protein, neutrophil count, estimated GFR and albumin) provided substantial improvements in a risk stratification model.Although predictive performance varied from hospital to hospital, the improvement over NEWS2 alone was consistent across different patient cohorts.The proposed addition of a limited number of dichotomised parameters is easily derived from a pre-existing acuity score would be substantially easier to implement in a short-time scale compared to novel high-dimensional risk-scoring systems.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0261376
Author(s):  
Pugazhvannan CR ◽  
Ilavarasi Vanidassane ◽  
Dhivya Pownraj ◽  
Ravichandran Kandasamy ◽  
Aneesh Basheer

Background While several parameters have emerged as predictors of prognosis of COVID-19, a simple clinical score at baseline might help early risk stratification. We determined the ability of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict poor outcomes among adults with COVID-19. Methods A prospective study was conducted on 399 hospitalised adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between August and December 2020. Baseline NEWS2 score was determined. Primary outcome was poor outcomes defined as need for mechanical ventilation or death within 28 days. The sensitivity, specificity and Area under the curve were determined for NEWS2 scores of 5 and 6. Results Mean age of patients was 55.5 ± 14.8 years and 275 of 399 (68.9%) were male. Overall mortality was 3.8% and 7.5% had poor outcomes. Median (interquartile range) NEWS2 score at admission was 2 (0–6). Sensitivity and specificity of NEWS 2 of 5 or more in predicting poor outcomes was 93.3% (95% CI: 76.5–98.8) and 70.7% (95% CI: 65.7–75.3) respectively [area under curve 0.88 (95% CI: 0.847–0.927)]. Age, baseline pulse rate, baseline oxygen saturation, need for supplemental oxygen and ARDS on chest X ray were independently associated with poor outcomes. Conclusions NEWS2 score of 5 or more at admission predicts poor outcomes in patients with COVID-19 with good sensitivity and can easily be applied for risk stratification at baseline. Further studies are needed in the Indian setting to validate this simple score and recommend widespread use.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-20
Author(s):  
Immaculate Nakitende ◽  
◽  
Teopista Namujwiga ◽  
Dustin Dunsmuir ◽  
J. Mark Ansermino ◽  
...  

Background: counting respiratory rate over 60 seconds can be impractical in a busy clinical setting. Methods: 870 respiratory rates of 272 acutely ill medical patients estimated from observations over 15 seconds and those calculated by a computer algorithm were compared. Results: The bias of 15 seconds of observations was 1.85 breaths per minute and 0.11 breaths per minute for the algorithm derived rate, which took 16.2 SD 8.1 seconds. The algorithm assigned 88% of respiratory rates their correct National Early Warning Score points, compared with 80% for rates from 15 seconds of observation. Conclusion: The respiratory rates of acutely ill patients are measured nearly as quickly and more reliably by a computer algorithm than by observations over 15 seconds.


BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e024636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Eckart ◽  
Stephanie Isabelle Hauser ◽  
Alexander Kutz ◽  
Sebastian Haubitz ◽  
Pierre Hausfater ◽  
...  

ObjectivesThe National Early Warning Score (NEWS) helps to estimate mortality risk in emergency department (ED) patients. This study aimed to investigate whether the prognostic value of the NEWS at ED admission could be further improved by adding inflammatory blood markers (ie, white cell count (WCC), procalcitonin (PCT) and midregional-proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM).DesignSecondary analysis of a multinational, observational study (TRIAGE study, March 2013–October 2014).SettingThree tertiary care centres in France, Switzerland and the USA.ParticipantsA total of 1303 adult medical patients with complete NEWS data seeking ED care were included in the final analysis. NEWS was calculated retrospectively based on admission data.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. Secondary outcome was intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We used multivariate regression analyses to investigate associations of NEWS and blood markers with outcomes and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) as a measure of discrimination.ResultsOf the 1303 included patients, 54 (4.1%) died within 30 days. The NEWS alone showed fair prognostic accuracy for all-cause 30-day mortality (AUC 0.73), with a multivariate adjusted OR of 1.26 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.40, p<0.001). The AUCs for the prediction of mortality using the inflammatory markers WCC, PCT and MR-proADM were 0.64, 0.71 and 0.78, respectively. Combining NEWS with all three blood markers or only with MR-proADM clearly improved discrimination with an AUC of 0.82 (p=0.002). Combining the three inflammatory markers with NEWS improved prediction of ICU admission (AUC 0.70vs0.65 when using NEWS alone, p=0.006).ConclusionNEWS is helpful in risk stratification of ED patients and can be further improved by the addition of inflammatory blood markers. Future studies should investigate whether risk stratification by NEWS in addition to biomarkers improve site-of-care decision in this patient population.Trial registration numberNCT01768494; Post-results.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Martín-Rodríguez ◽  
Raúl López-Izquierdo ◽  
Juan F. Delgado Benito ◽  
Ancor Sanz-García ◽  
Carlos del Pozo Vegas ◽  
...  

The objective of this study was to assess whether the use of prehospital lactate (pLA) can increase the prognostic accuracy of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to detect the risk of death within 48 h. A prospective, multicenter study in adults treated consecutively by the emergency medical services (EMS) included six advanced life support (ALS) services and five hospitals. Patients were assigned to one of four groups according to their risk of mortality (low, low-medium, medium, and high), as determined by the NEWS2 score. For each group, the validity of pLA in our cohort was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. In this study, 3081 participants with a median age of 69 years (Interquartile range (IQR): 54–81) were included. The two-day mortality was 4.4% (137 cases). The scale derived from the implementation of the pLA improved the capacity of the NEWS2 to discriminate low risk of mortality, with an AUC of 0.910 (95% CI: 0.87–0.94; p < 0.001). The risk stratification provided by the NEWS2 can be improved by incorporating pLA measurement to more accurately predict the risk of mortality in patients with low risk.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsi Kemp ◽  
Janne Alakare ◽  
Veli-Pekka Harjola ◽  
Timo Strandberg ◽  
Jukka Tolonen ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundThe aim of the emergency department (ED) triage is to recognize critically ill patients and to allocate resources. No strong evidence for accuracy of the current triage instruments, especially for the older adults, exists. We evaluated the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and a 3-level triage assessment as risk predictors for frail older adults visiting the ED.MethodsThis prospective, observational study was performed in a Finnish ED. The data were collected in a six-month period and included were ≥75-year-old residents with Clinical Frailty Scale score of at least four. We analyzed the predictive values of NEWS2 and the three-level triage scale for 30-day mortality, hospital admission, high dependency unit (HDU) and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, a count of 72-hour and 30-day revisits, and ED length-of-stay (LOS). Results A total of 1711 ED visits were included. Median for age, CFS, LOS and NEWS2 were 85 years, 6 points, 6.2 hours and 1 point, respectively. 30-day mortality was 96/1711. At triage, 69, 356 and 1278 of patients were assessed as red, yellow and green, respectively. There were 1103 admissions, of them 31 to an HDU facility, none to ICU.With NEWS2 and triage score, AUCs for 30-day mortality prediction were 0.70 (0.64-0.76) and 0.62 (0.56-0.68); for hospital admission prediction 0.62 (0.60-0.65) and 0.55 (0.52-0.56), and for HDU admission 0.72 (0.61-0.83) and 0.80 (0.70-0.90), respectively.The NEWS2 divided into risk groups of low, medium and high did not predict the ED LOS (p=0.095). There was a difference in ED LOS between the red/yellow and as red/green patient groups (p<0.001) but not between the yellow/green groups (p=0.59).There were 48 and 351 revisits within 72 hours and 30 days, respectively. With NEWS2 AUCs for 72-hour and 30-day revisit prediction were 0.48 (95% CI 0.40-0.56) and 0.47 (0.44-0.51), respectively; with triage score 0.48 (0.40-0.56) and 0.49 (0.46-0.52), respectively. ConclusionsThe NEWS2 and a local 3-level triage scale are statistically significant in predicting 30-day mortality, and HDU admission but not ED LOS or revisit rates for frail older adults. NEWS2 also seems to predict hospital admission


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. e045469
Author(s):  
Rachel Stocker ◽  
Siân Russell ◽  
Jennifer Liddle ◽  
Robert O Barker ◽  
Adam Remmer ◽  
...  

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has taken a heavy toll on the care home sector, with residents accounting for up to half of all deaths in Europe. The response to acute illness in care homes plays a particularly important role in the care of residents during a pandemic. Digital recording of a National Early Warning Score (NEWS), which involves the measurement of physical observations, started in care homes in one area of England in 2016. Implementation of a NEWS intervention (including equipment, training and support) was accelerated early in the pandemic, despite limited evidence for its use in the care home setting.ObjectivesTo understand how a NEWS intervention has been used in care homes in one area of North-East England during the COVID-19 pandemic, and how it has influenced resident care, from the perspective of stakeholders involved in care delivery and commissioning.MethodsA qualitative interview study with care home (n=10) and National Health Service (n=7) staff. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.ResultsUse of the NEWS intervention in care homes in this area accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Stakeholders felt that NEWS, and its associated education and support package, improved the response of care homes and healthcare professionals to deterioration in residents’ health during the pandemic. Healthcare professionals valued the ability to remotely monitor resident observations, which facilitated triage and treatment decisions. Care home staff felt empowered by NEWS, providing a common clinical language to communicate concerns with external services, acting as an adjunct to staff intuition of resident deterioration.ConclusionsThe NEWS intervention formed an important part of the care home response to COVID-19 in the study area. Positive staff perceptions now need to be supplemented with data on the impact on resident health and well-being, workload, and service utilisation, during the pandemic and beyond.


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