scholarly journals Developing a scoring tool to estimate the risk of deterioration for normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism on admission

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yizhuo Gao ◽  
Chao Ji ◽  
Hongyu Zhao ◽  
Jun Han ◽  
Haitao Shen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background It is important to identify deterioration in normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). This study aimed to develop a tool for predicting deterioration among normotensive patients with acute PE on admission. Methods Clinical, laboratory, and computed tomography parameters were retrospectively collected for normotensive patients with acute PE who were treated at a Chinese center from January 2011 to May 2020 on admission into the hospital. The endpoint of the deterioration was any adverse outcome within 30 days. Eligible patients were randomized 2:1 to derivation and validation cohorts, and a nomogram was developed and validated by the aforementioned cohorts, respectively. The areas under the curves (AUCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A risk-scoring tool for predicting deterioration was applied as a web-based calculator. Results The 845 eligible patients (420 men, 425 women) had an average age of 60.05 ± 15.43 years. Adverse outcomes were identified for 81 patients (9.6%). The nomogram for adverse outcomes included heart rate, systolic pressure, N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide, and ventricle/atrial diameter ratios at 4-chamber view, which provided AUC values of 0.925 in the derivation cohort (95% CI 0.900–0.946, p < 0.001) and 0.900 in the validation cohort (95% CI 0.883–0.948, p < 0.001). A risk-scoring tool was published as a web-based calculator (https://gaoyzcmu.shinyapps.io/APE9AD/). Conclusions We developed a web-based scoring tool that may help predict deterioration in normotensive patients with acute PE.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yizhuo Gao ◽  
Chao Ji ◽  
Hongyu Zhao ◽  
Jun Han ◽  
Haitao Shen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: It is important to identify deterioration in normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). This study aimed to develop a tool for predicting deterioration among normotensive patients with acute PE on admission.Methods: Clinical, laboratory, and computed tomography parameters were retrospectively collected for normotensive patients with acute PE who were treated at a Chinese center from January 2011 to May 2020 on admission into the hospital. The endpoint of the deterioration was any adverse outcome within 30 days. Eligible patients were randomized 2:1 to derivation and validation cohorts, and a nomogram was developed and validated by the aforementioned cohorts, respectively. The areas under the curves (AUCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A risk-scoring tool for predicting deterioration was applied as a web-based calculator.Results: The 845 eligible patients (420 men, 425 women) had an average age of 60.05±15.43 years. Adverse outcomes were identified for 81 patients (9.6%). The nomogram for adverse outcomes included heart rate, systolic pressure, N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide, and ventricle/atrial diameter ratios at 4-chamber view, which provided AUC values of 0.925 in the derivation cohort (95% CI: 0.900–0.946, p<0.001) and 0.900 in the validation cohort (95% CI: 0.883–0.948, p<0.001). A risk-scoring tool was published as a web-based calculator (https://gaoyzcmu.shinyapps.io/APE9AD/).Conclusions: We developed a web-based scoring tool that may help predict deterioration in normotensive patients with acute PE.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yizhuo Gao ◽  
Chao Ji ◽  
Hongyu Zhao ◽  
Jun Han ◽  
Haitao Shen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: It is important to identify deterioration in normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). This study aimed to develop a tool for predicting deterioration among normotensive patients with acute PE on admission.Methods: Clinical, laboratory, and computed tomography parameters were retrospectively collected for normotensive patients with acute PE who were treated at a Chinese center from January 2011 to May 2020 on admission into the hospital. The endpoint of the deterioration was any adverse outcome within 30 days. Eligible patients were randomized 2:1 to derivation and validation cohorts, and a nomogram was developed and validated by the aforementioned cohorts, respectively. The areas under the curves (AUCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A risk-scoring tool for predicting deterioration was applied as a web-based calculator.Results: The 845 eligible patients (420 men, 425 women) had an average age of 60.05±15.43 years. Adverse outcomes were identified for 81 patients (9.6%). The nomogram for adverse outcomes included heart rate, systolic pressure, N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide, and ventricle/atrial diameter ratios at 4-chamber view, which provided AUC values of 0.925 in the derivation cohort (95% CI: 0.900–0.946, p<0.001) and 0.900 in the validation cohort (95% CI: 0.883–0.948, p<0.001). A risk-scoring tool was published as a web-based calculator (https://gaoyzcmu.shinyapps.io/APE9AD/).Conclusions: We developed a web-based scoring tool that may help predict deterioration in normotensive patients with acute PE.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yizhuo Gao ◽  
Chao Ji ◽  
Hongyu Zhao ◽  
Jun Han ◽  
Haitao Shen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: It is important to identify deterioration in normotension patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). This study aimed to develop a tool for predicting deterioration among normotensive patients with acute PE on admission.Methods: Clinical, laboratory, and computed tomography parameters were retrospective collected for normotension patients with acute PE who were treated at a Chinese center from January 2011 to May 2020 on admission into hospital. The endpoint of the deterioration was any adverse outcome within 30 days. The eligible patients were randomized 2:1 to training and validation datasets. A nomogram was developed and validated by training and validation datasets respectively. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A risk-scoring tool for predicting deterioration was applied as a web-based calculator.Results: The 845 eligible patients (420 men, 425 women) had an average age of 60.05±15.43 years. Adverse outcomes were identified for 81 patients (9.6%). The nomogram for adverse outcomes included heart rate, systolic pressure, N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide, and ventricular/atrial diameter ratios at 4-chamber view, which provided AUC values of 0.925 in the training dataset (95% CI: 0.900–0.946, p<0.001) and 0.900 in the validation dataset (95% CI: 0.883–0.948, p<0.001). A risk-scoring tool was published as a web-based calculator (https://gaoyzcmu.shinyapps.io/APE9AD/).Conclusions: We developed a web-based scoring tool that may help predict deterioration in normotensive patients with acute PE.


2001 ◽  
Vol 86 (11) ◽  
pp. 1193-1196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Tulevski ◽  
Alexander Hirsch ◽  
Bernd-Jan Sanson ◽  
Hans Romkes ◽  
Ernst van der Wall ◽  
...  

SummaryRight ventricular (RV) function is of major prognostic significance in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The aim of the present study was to evaluate the role of neurohormone plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) in assessing RV function in patients with acute PE.BNP levels were measured in 16 consecutive patients with acute PE as diagnosed by high probability lung scintigraphy or pulmonary angiography. Twelve healthy age-matched volunteers served as controls. All 16 patients underwent standard echocardiography and blood tests during the first hour of presentation. In the patient group, survival was studied for a period of 30 days. Plasma BNP levels in patients with acute PE were higher than in controls (7.2 [95% CI 0.4 to 144.6] versus 1.4[95% CI 0.4 to 4.6] pmol/L, p = 0.0008). Plasma BNP was significantly higher in 5 patients with RV dysfunction compared to 11 patients with normal RV function (40.2 [95% CI 7.5 to 214.9] versus 3.3 [95% CI 0.4 to 24.9] pmol/L, p = 0.0003). RV systolic pressure was not significantly correlated with BNP (r = 0.42, p = ns).In conclusion, plasma BNP neurohormone levels might be of clinical importance as a supplementary tool for assessment of RV function in patients with acute PE.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M C Vedovati ◽  
L A Cimini ◽  
L Pierpaoli ◽  
S Vanni ◽  
M Cotugno ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The accuracy of the 2014 ESC model to predict 30-day mortality in hemodynamically stable patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is relatively limited. Purpose The aims of this study in hemodynamically stable patients with acute PE were i) to evaluate the prognostic value of a novel respiratory index (RI) (oxygen saturation in air to respiratory rate ratio) and ii) to assess the accuracy of the RI-model (simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index [sPESI] + RI), both in predicting 30-day mortality. Methods A collaborative database of hemodynamically stable patients with PE was divided into two cohorts (derivation and validation) with equal numbers of patients, based on a temporal criterion. Study outcome was 30-day all-cause-death. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in the derivation and validation cohorts by the c-statistics and by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively. Results 30-day all-cause-death occurred in 7.5% of the 319 patients in the derivation cohort (mean age 72 years, females 53%). The RI was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality (p=0.004). A RI ≤3.8 was associated with an increased death rate compared to higher RI values (15.4% vs 5.0%, OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.5–8.1). When the RI≤3.8 was integrated in the sPESI, the novel RI-model showed a good discriminatory power (c-statistics 0.703, 95% CI 0.603–0.803). In the 319 patients of the validation cohort (30-day mortality 6.9%, mean age 71 years, females 55%) the discriminatory power of the RI-model was confirmed (c-statistics 0.838, 95% CI 0.768–0.907). The RI-model and the 2014 ESC model had a c-statistics of 0.772 (95% CI 0.709–0.834) and of 0.687 (95% CI 0.620–0.753) in the overall population, respectively. Conclusion In this study, the RI independently predicted 30-day mortality in hemodynamically stable patients with acute PE. A clinical model including RI showed a better discriminatory value than 2014 ESC model and could be used for risk stratification in these patients.


2021 ◽  
pp. 00879-2020
Author(s):  
Kevin Solverson ◽  
Christopher Humphreys ◽  
Zhiying Liang ◽  
Graeme Prosperi-Porta ◽  
James E. Andruchow ◽  
...  

BackgroundAcute pulmonary embolism (PE) has a wide spectrum of outcomes but the best method to risk stratify normotensive patients for adverse outcomes remains unclear.MethodsA multicenter retrospective cohort study of acute PE patients admitted from emergency departments in Calgary, Canada, between 2012–2017 was used to develop a refined acute PE risk score. The composite primary outcome of in-hospital PE-related death or hemodynamic decompensation. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping and the prognostic value of the derived risk score was compared to the Bova score.ResultsOf 2067 patients with normotensive acute PE, the primary outcome (hemodynamic decompensation or PE related death) occurred in 32 patients (1.5%). In sPESI high-risk patients (n=1498, 78%), a multivariable model used to predict the primary outcome retained computed tomography (CT) right-left ventricular diameter ratio ≥1.5, systolic blood pressure 90–100 mmHg, central pulmonary artery clot, & heart rate ≥100 BMP with a C-statistic of 0.89 (95%CI, 0.82–0.93). Three risk groups were derived using a weighted score (score, prevalence, primary outcome event rate): group 1 (0–3, 73.8%, 0.34%), group 2 (4–6, 17.6%, 5.8%), group 3 (7–9, 8.7%, 12.8%) with a C-statistic 0.85 (95%CI, 0.78–0.91). In comparison the prevalence (primary outcome) by Bova risk stages (n=1179) were: stage I, 49.8% (0.2%); stage II, 31.9% (2.7%); and stage III, 18.4% (7.8%) with a C-statistic 0.80 (95%CI, 0.74–0.86).ConclusionsA simple 4-variable risk score using clinical data immediately available after CT diagnosis of acute PE predicts in-hospital adverse outcomes. External validation of the CAPE score is required.


Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 43-43
Author(s):  
Katherine Steckham ◽  
Craig Ainsworth ◽  
Siraj Mithoowani ◽  
Deborah M Siegal

Background: The role of inpatient transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is unclear. Although right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) predicts adverse outcomes in acute PE, there is no consensus on the optimal TTE findings for prognostication and how they influence management, particularly when CT and/or an elevated cardiac troponin already suggest RVD. Understanding current practices regarding inpatient TTE in acute PE can help direct appropriate use. Our objectives were to (i) characterize inpatient TTE use in adult patients hospitalized with acute PE, (ii) describe and compare findings of RVD by TTE, CT and troponin, and (iii) explore differences in outcomes between patients managed with or without TTE. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients hospitalized with acute PE at two academic hospitals in Hamilton, Canada between January and December 2018. Patients with suspected PE that was not objectively confirmed, or PE diagnosed prior to hospitalization were excluded. We also excluded patients who had a TTE prior to the diagnosis of PE. Chi-square tests and independent t-tests were used. P-values less than 0.05 were considered significant. Results: We identified 178 adult patients (mean age 66 ± 15 years; 42% male). Patients were admitted to internal medicine (53%), oncology (19%), surgical specialties (13%) and intensive care units (ICU, 11%). Of 146 patients, 134 (92%) had a PE involving segmental or larger vessels. TTE was conducted in 86 (48%) patients. Systemic thrombolysis was administered to 11 (6%) patients. A higher proportion of patients with an elevated troponin (66% vs. 35% p&lt;0.001) or evidence of RV strain on CT (65% vs. 35%, p=0.001) underwent TTE compared to those without these findings. Patients admitted to the ICU more frequently underwent TTE (69% vs. 44%, p=0.012). RV size and function were normal in 49 (59%) and 53 (63%) cases, respectively. Patients with RV strain on CT were more likely to have RV enlargement (58% vs. 30%, p=0.04) and RVD (58% vs. 25%, p=0.011) on TTE. However, right ventricular internal dimension in diastole (RVIDd) (3.9 ± 0.75 cm vs. 3.7 ± 0.78 cm) and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) (1.8 ± 0.44 cm vs. 2.0 ± 0.38 cm) were not statistically different between patients with or without RV strain on CT. A higher proportion of patients with an elevated troponin had RV enlargement (58% vs. 14%, p=0.001) and RVD (50% vs. 18%, p=0.018) on TTE. Length of hospital admission (16 ± 28 days vs. 11 ± 23 days) and in-hospital death (7% vs. 11%) were not statistically different between patients with or without TTE. Conclusions: Inpatient TTE is conducted frequently in hospitalized patients with acute PE, especially in those with evidence of RV strain based on CT and/or an elevated cardiac troponin. Our results suggest that patients with findings of RV strain on CT are more likely to have RV enlargement and RVD on TTE. Future studies should evaluate the diagnostic utility of CT and/or troponin for RVD in the setting of acute PE, which may reduce the routine use of inpatient TTE and associated healthcare resources and costs. Disclosures Mithoowani: Leo Pharma: Honoraria. Siegal:Portola: Honoraria; Novartis: Honoraria; Leo Pharma: Honoraria; Bayer: Honoraria; BMS Pfizer: Honoraria.


VASA ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Li ◽  
Lei Feng ◽  
Jiangbo Li ◽  
Jian Tang

Abstract. Background: The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) for acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted that included studies from January 2000 to August 2015 using the electronic databases PubMed, Embase and Springer link. The summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratios (PLR), negative likelihood ratios (NLR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) as well as the 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of MRA for acute PE. Meta-disc software version 1.4 was used to analyze the data. Results: Five studies were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity (86 %, 95 % CI: 81 % to 90 %) and specificity (99 %, 95 % CI: 98 % to 100 %) demonstrated that MRA diagnosis had limited sensitivity and high specificity in the detection of acute PE. The pooled estimate of PLR (41.64, 95 % CI: 17.97 to 96.48) and NLR (0.17, 95 % CI: 0.11 to 0.27) provided evidence for the low missed diagnosis and misdiagnosis rates of MRA for acute PE. The high diagnostic accuracy of MRA for acute PE was demonstrated by the overall DOR (456.51, 95 % CI: 178.38 - 1168.31) and SROC curves (AUC = 0.9902 ± 0.0061). Conclusions: MRA can be used for the diagnosis of acute PE. However, due to limited sensitivity, MRA cannot be used as a stand-alone test to exclude acute PE.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
MD Lyhne ◽  
SJ Dragsbaek ◽  
JV Hansen ◽  
JG Schultz ◽  
A Andersen ◽  
...  

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Laerdal Foundation for Acute Medicine, Novo Nordisk Foundation Background/Introduction: Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is a frequent condition in acute cardiac care and is potentially fatal. Cause of death is right ventricular (RV) failure due to increased RV afterload from both pulmonary vascular obstruction and vasoconstriction. Inodilators are interesting drugs of choice as they may improve RV function and lower its afterload. Purpose We aimed to investigate the cardiovascular effects of three clinically relevant inodilators: levosimendan, milrinone and dobutamine in acute PE. Methods We conducted a randomized, blinded, animal study using 18 female pigs. Animals received large autologous PE until doubling of baseline mean pulmonary arterial pressure and were randomized to four logarithmically increasing doses of each inodilator. Effects were evaluated with bi-ventricular pressure-volume loop recordings, right heart catheterization and blood gas analyses. Results Induction of PE increased RV afterload and pulmonary pressure (p &lt; 0.05) causing RV dysfunction. Levosimendan and milrinone showed beneficial hemodynamic profiles by lowering RV pressures and volume (p &lt; 0.001) and improved RV function and cardiac output (p &lt; 0.05) without increasing RV mechanical work. Dobutamine increased RV pressure and function (p &lt; 0.01) but at a cost of increased mechanical work at the highest doses, showing an adverse hemodynamic profile. See Figure. Conclusion(s): In a porcine model of acute PE, levosimendan and milrinone reduced RV afterload and improved RV function, whereas dobutamine at higher doses increased RV afterload and RV mechanical work. The study motivates clinical testing of inodilators in patients with acute PE and RV dysfunction. Abstract Figure. Inodilators in acute pulmonary embolism


TH Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 05 (01) ◽  
pp. e66-e72
Author(s):  
Lisette F. van Dam ◽  
Lucia J. M. Kroft ◽  
Menno V. Huisman ◽  
Maarten K. Ninaber ◽  
Frederikus A. Klok

Abstract Background Computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) is the imaging modality of choice for the diagnosis of acute pulmonary embolism (PE). With computed tomography pulmonary perfusion (CTPP) additional information on lung perfusion can be assessed, but its value in PE risk stratification is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the correlation between CTPP-assessed perfusion defect score (PDS) and clinical presentation and its predictive value for adverse short-term outcome of acute PE. Patients and Methods This was an exploratory, observational study in 100 hemodynamically stable patients with CTPA-confirmed acute PE in whom CTPP was performed as part of routine clinical practice. We calculated the difference between the mean PDS in patients with versus without chest pain, dyspnea, and hemoptysis and 7-day adverse outcome. Multivariable logistic regression analysis and likelihood-ratio test were used to assess the added predictive value of PDS to CTPA parameters of right ventricle dysfunction and total thrombus load, for intensive care unit admission, reperfusion therapy and PE-related death. Results We found no correlation between PDS and clinical symptoms. PDS was correlated to reperfusion therapy (n = 4 with 16% higher PDS, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.5–28%) and PE-related mortality (n = 2 with 22% higher PDS, 95% CI: 4.9–38). Moreover, PDS had an added predictive value to CTPA assessment for PE-related mortality (from Chi-square 14 to 19, p = 0.02). Conclusion CTPP-assessed PDS was not correlated to clinical presentation of acute PE. However, PDS was correlated to reperfusion therapy and PE-related mortality and had an added predictive value to CTPA-reading for PE-related mortality; this added value needs to be demonstrated in larger studies.


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