scholarly journals Geospatial indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to assess neighbourhood variation in vulnerability to climate change-related health hazards

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Yu ◽  
Kaitlin Castellani ◽  
Krista Forysinski ◽  
Paul Gustafson ◽  
James Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Health Hazards ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Wildfire Smoke ◽  
Vulnerability Score ◽  
Relative Vulnerability

Abstract Background Although the frequency and magnitude of climate change-related health hazards (CCRHHs) are likely to increase, the population vulnerabilities and corresponding health impacts are dependent on a community’s exposures, pre-existing sensitivities, and adaptive capacities in response to a hazard’s impact. To evaluate spatial variability in relative vulnerability, we: 1) identified climate change-related risk factors at the dissemination area level; 2) created actionable health vulnerability index scores to map community risks to extreme heat, flooding, wildfire smoke, and ground-level ozone; and 3) spatially evaluated vulnerability patterns and priority areas of action to address inequity. Methods A systematic literature review was conducted to identify the determinants of health hazards among populations impacted by CCRHHs. Identified determinants were then grouped into categories of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity and aligned with available data. Data were aggregated to 4188 Census dissemination areas within two health authorities in British Columbia, Canada. A two-step principal component analysis (PCA) was then used to select and weight variables for each relative vulnerability score. In addition to an overall vulnerability score, exposure, adaptive capacity, and sensitivity sub-scores were computed for each hazard. Scores were then categorised into quintiles and mapped. Results Two hundred eighty-one epidemiological papers met the study criteria and were used to identify 36 determinant indicators that were operationalized across all hazards. For each hazard, 3 to 5 principal components explaining 72 to 94% of the total variance were retained. Sensitivity was weighted much higher for extreme heat, wildfire smoke and ground-level ozone, and adaptive capacity was highly weighted for flooding vulnerability. There was overall varied contribution of adaptive capacity (16–49%) across all hazards. Distinct spatial patterns were observed – for example, although patterns varied by hazard, vulnerability was generally higher in more deprived and more outlying neighbourhoods of the study region. Conclusions The creation of hazard and category-specific vulnerability indices (exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity sub-scores) supports evidence-based approaches to prioritize public health responses to climate-related hazards and to reduce inequity by assessing relative differences in vulnerability along with absolute impacts. Future studies can build upon this methodology to further understand the spatial variation in vulnerability and to identify and prioritise actionable areas for adaptation.

scholarly journals Current and future occurrences of health-relevant, compound heat and ozone pollution events in six European ozone-temperature regions 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Jahn ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
Elevated Ozone

<p>Air pollution and heat events present two major health risks, both already independently posing a significant threat to human health and life. High levels of ground-level ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and air temperature often coincide due to the underlying physical relationships between both variables. The most severe health outcome is in general associated with the co-occurrence of both hazards (e.g. Hertig et al. 2020), since concurrent elevated levels of temperature and ozone concentrations represent a twofold exposure and can lead to a risk beyond the sum of the individual effects. Consequently, in the current contribution, a compound approach considering both hazards simultaneously as so-called ozone-temperature (o-t-)events is chosen by jointly analyzing elevated ground-level ozone concentrations and air temperature levels in Europe.</p><p>Previous studies already point to the fact that the relationship of underlying synoptic and meteorological drivers with one or both of these health stressors as well as the correlation between both variables vary with the location of sites and seasons (e.g. Otero et al. 2016; Jahn, Hertig 2020). Therefore, a hierarchical clustering analysis is applied to objectively divide the study domain in regions of homogeneous, similar ground-level ozone and temperature characteristics (o-t-regions). Statistical models to assess the synoptic and large-scale meteorological mechanisms which represent main drivers of concurrent o-t-events are developed for each identified o-t-region.</p><p>Compound elevated ozone concentration and air temperature events are expected to become more frequent due to climate change in many parts of Europe (e.g. Jahn, Hertig 2020; Hertig 2020). Statistical projections of potential frequency shifts of compound o-t-events until the end of the twenty-first century are assessed using the output of Earth System Models (ESMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).</p><p><em>Hertig, E. (2020) Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869-020-00811-z</em></p><p><em>Hertig, E., Russo, A., Trigo, R. (2020) Heat and ozone pollution waves in Central and South Europe- characteristics, weather types, and association with mortality. Atmosphere. doi: 10.3390/atmos11121271</em></p><p><em>Jahn, S., Hertig, E. (2020) Modeling and projecting health‐relevant combined ozone and temperature events in present and future Central European climate. Air Qual. Atmos. Health. doi: 10.1007/s11869‐020‐009610</em></p><p><em>Otero N., Sillmann J., Schnell J.L., Rust H.W., Butler T. (2016) Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe. Environ Res Lett. doi: 10.1088/ 1748-9326/11/2/024005</em></p>

scholarly journals An Assessment of Vulnerability of Fishers’ Livelihood to Climate Change in Coastal Odisha

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sambit Priyadarshi ◽  
S. N. Ojha ◽  
Arpita Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
The State ◽  
Context Specificity ◽  
East Coast Of India ◽  
Index Approach ◽  
Vulnerability Score

A study was conducted in Odisha, a state on the east coast of India, with the objective of assessing the vulnerability of fishers’ livelihood to climate change. The state was chosen for study since it is considered as one of the most vulnerable states due to climate change. A total of 120 fishers were interviewed from two districts, Balasore and Ganjam, to assess their livelihood vulnerability by considering their exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change. A composite livelihood vulnerability index by suggesting that fishers are vulnerable to climate change. For fishers of + 0.03 and for Ganjam it was 0.5 minima 0, and maxima 1 was used for the purpose. Baleswar the score was 0.56 0.04, s. The aggregated vulnerability score was found to be 0.54+The composite livelihood vulnerability index approach calculates vulnerability by aggregating data for a set of indicators for the components of vulnerability which include exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity + 0.04. Vulnerability score was relatively higher in Baleswar due to higher scores on the exposure and sensitivity parameters overshadowing the higher adaptive capacity. The study shows evidence that marine fishers of Odisha are vulnerable to climate change. Also, it throws light on the location and context specificity of livelihood vulnerability.

Compound heat and ozone pollution events relevant for human health

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elke Hertig ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Ricardo Trigo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Ground Level Ozone ◽  
Ozone Concentrations ◽  
South Europe

<p>Temperature extremes and air pollution pose a significant threat to human health. A specific concern applies to heat events and elevated ground-level ozone concentrations, due to the physical relationships between these variables, the single and combined effects of both variables on human health and the anticipated substantial changes in the scope of climate change.</p><p>The present contribution addresses relationships between air temperature and ground-level ozone, the association of these variables with atmospheric circulation patterns, the anticipated changes under future climate change as well as their association with human morbidity (i.e. myocardial infarction frequencies, Hertig et al. 2019) and mortality. The focus is on two climatically different regions in Europe, i.e., Bavaria (Central Europe) and Portugal (South Europe).</p><p>In general, a strong relationship between air temperature and ozone formation became evident. Due to the non-linear nature of the relationship, higher temperatures usually led to substantially enhanced ozone concentrations. In the scope of climate change, considerable increases of maximum temperatures were assessed for Bavaria until the end of the century. Also, future ozone concentrations were projected to rise (Hertig 2020). With respect to spell-length related extremes (heat waves and/ or ozone pollution waves), heat waves were identified as the most frequent wave type for the two European regions under investigation. Waves were associated with in-situ built-up as well as with advection of air masses. Despite different climate settings, a comparable exposure to heat and ozone waves was found in Central and South Europe. In view of excess mortality, the most severe impacts were always associated with compound heat-ozone waves (Hertig et al. 2020).</p><p>Research was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under project number 408057478.</p><p>Hertig, E., Russo, A., Trigo, R. (2020): Heat and ozone pollution waves in Central and South Europe- characteristics, weather types, and association with mortality. Atmosphere. doi: 10.3390/atmos11121271</p><p>Hertig, E. (2020): Health-relevant ground-level ozone and temperature events under future climate change using the example of Bavaria, Southern Germany. Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-020-00811-z</p><p>Hertig, E., Schneider, A., Peters, A., von Scheidt, W., Kuch, B., Meisinger, Ch. (2019): Association of ground-level ozone, meteorological factors and weather types with daily myocardial infarction frequencies in Augsburg, Southern Germany. Atmos. Environment. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.116975</p>

Adaptive capacity and regional water governance in north-western Germany

Water Policy ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 794-815 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Grecksch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Salt Water ◽  
Water Governance ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Salt Water Intrusion ◽  
Communication Tool ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Study Region

Successful adaptation to climate change requires flexible adaptation strategies which consider regional ecological, economic and social circumstances. Coastal zones are considered to be significantly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The projected impacts of climate change in the metropolitan region of Bremen–Oldenburg, Germany (a coastal area), are, for example, rising sea level, salt water intrusion, temporary groundwater scarcity in the summer and increased (heavy) rainfalls. This paper uses an existing framework, the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW), complemented by two additional dimensions: adaptation motivation and adaptation belief. The objectives were first, to assess the adaptive capacity of water governance in the study region, and second, to show how the ACW can be used as an approach and a communication tool with stakeholders to identify strengths and weaknesses. Based on this, a further objective was to discover what lessons and recommendations can be drawn that could help water experts and stakeholders in the future. The results show a high adaptive capacity and that the addition of the psychological dimensions was valuable. However, it is important to look closely at each dimension assessed by the ACW. The key recommendations are: to improve public participation; to ensure better coordination; to raise awareness; and to reduce the lack of political will to overcome adaptation barriers.

scholarly journals Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability at the Local Level: A Case Study on the Dniester River Basin (Moldova)

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Corobov ◽  
Igor Sîrodoev ◽  
Sonja Koeppel ◽  
Nickolai Denisov ◽  
Ghennadi Sîrodoev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Housing Conditions ◽  
Socioeconomic Characteristics ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Sensitivity Assessment ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽  
Relative Vulnerability

Vulnerability to climate change of the Moldavian part of the Dniester river was assessed as the function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of its basin’s natural and socioeconomic systems. As a spatial “scale” of the assessment, Moldova’s administrative-territorial units (ATUs) were selected. The exposure assessment was based on the climatic analysis of baseline (1971–2000) temperature and precipitation and projections of their changes in 2021–2050, separately for cold and warm periods. The sensitivity assessment included physiographical and socioeconomic characteristics, described by a set of specific indicators. The adaptive capacity was expressed by general economic and agricultural indicators, taking into consideration the medical provision and housing conditions. Through a ranking approach, the relative vulnerability of each ATU was calculated by summing its sensitivity and adaptive capacity ranks; the latter were obtained as combinations of their primary indicator ranks, arranged in an increasing and decreasing order, respectively. Due to lack of sound knowledge on these components' importance in overall assessment of vulnerability, their weights were taken as conventionally equal. Mapping of vulnerability revealed that ATUs neighboring to municipalities are the most vulnerable and need special attention in climate change adaptation. The basin’s “hotspots” were discussed with public participation.

Emerging heat extremes, adaptation and the speed of socio-economic development

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner ◽  
Martha M. Vogel ◽  
Peter Pfleiderer ◽  
Marina Andrijevic ◽  
Friederike E. Otto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Heat Extremes

<p>Heat extremes are among the most pertinent extreme weather hazards. At the same time, adaptation to the impacts of extreme heat can be very effective. The ability of societies to effectively adapt to climate change hazards such as extreme heat, however, critically depends on their level of socio-economic development. Examining the risks posed by future heat extremes to human societies requires to link socio-economic development trajectories with emerging heat extremes. Such an integrated assessment can also provide insights into whether or not it is indeed plausible for societies to “outgrow” climate change by increasing adaptive capacity faster than climate impacts emerge -  a narrative that underlies many policy decisions that prioritize economic development over climate action still today.</p><p> </p><p>Here we provide such an integrated assessment by combining a novel approach to project the continuous emergence of heat extremes over the 21<sup>st</sup> century under different concentration pathways and the pace of socio-economic development under the shared socio-economic pathways accounting for continuous autonomous adaptation. We find that even under the most optimistic scenarios of future development, countries may not be able to outpace unmitigated climate change. Only Paris-Agreement compatible concentration pathways allow for human development to keep up with or even outpace the emerging climate change signal in vulnerable countries in the near future. A similar picture emerges when comparing heat day emergence with future evolution of governance as a proxy for adaptive capacity. Our findings underscore the critical importance of achieving the Paris Agreement goals to enable climate-resilient, sustainable development.</p>

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