scholarly journals The Evidentiary Credible Region

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 909-922 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Shalloway
Keyword(s):  
Credible Region

scholarly journals Calibrating general posterior credible regions

Biometrika ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 106 (2) ◽  
pp. 479-486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Syring ◽  
Ryan Martin
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Posterior Distribution ◽  
Coverage Probability ◽  
Monte Carlo Algorithm ◽  
Tuning Parameter ◽  
Challenging Problem ◽  
Misspecified Models ◽  
Credible Region ◽  
Frequentist Coverage

Summary Calibration of credible regions derived from under- or misspecified models is an important and challenging problem. In this paper, we introduce a scalar tuning parameter that controls the posterior distribution spread, and develop a Monte Carlo algorithm that sets this parameter so that the corresponding credible region achieves the nominal frequentist coverage probability.

scholarly journals Predictive Credible Region for Bayesian Diagnosis of a Hypothesis

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takemi Yanagimoto ◽  
Toshio Ohnishi
Keyword(s):  
Credible Region

scholarly journals Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
B. P. Abbott ◽  
◽  
R. Abbott ◽  
T. D. Abbott ◽  
S. Abraham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Hole ◽  
Neutron Star ◽  
Gravitational Wave ◽  
Binary Systems ◽  
Compact Objects ◽  
Binary Neutron Star ◽  
Binary Black Hole ◽  
Credible Region ◽  
Binary Mergers ◽  
Black Hole Binary

AbstractWe present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of $$10^{5}, 10^{6}, 10^{7}\mathrm {\ Mpc}^3$$ 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of $$1^{+12}_{-1}$$ 1 - 1 + 12 ($$10^{+52}_{-10}$$ 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of $$0^{+19}_{-0}$$ 0 - 0 + 19 ($$1^{+91}_{-1}$$ 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star–black hole mergers, and $$17^{+22}_{-11}$$ 17 - 11 + 22 ($$79^{+89}_{-44}$$ 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.

A Bayesian network meta-analysis of systemic regimens for advanced pancreatic cancer.

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 4015-4015
Author(s):  
Kelvin K. Chan ◽  
Doug Coyle ◽  
Chris Cameron ◽  
Kelly Lien ◽  
Yoo-Joung Ko
Keyword(s):  
Pancreatic Cancer ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Advanced Pancreatic Cancer ◽  
Progression Free Survival ◽  
Cochrane Central Register ◽  
Free Survival ◽  
Central Register ◽  
Credible Region ◽  
Asco Meeting

4015 Background: For advanced pancreatic cancer, many regimens have been compared with gemcitabine (G) in randomized control trials (RCTs). Few have been compared with each other directly in RCTs and the relative efficacy and safety among them are unclear. Methods: A systematic review was performed through MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Contorlled Trials and ASCO meeting abstracts up to Jan 2013 to identify RCTs that included metastatic pancreatic cancer comparing the following regimens: G, G+5-flourouracil (GF), G+capecitabine (GCap), G+S1 (GS), G+cisplatin (GCis), G+oxaliplatin (GOx), G+erlotinib (GE), G+Abraxane (GA) and FOLFIRINOX. Studies were reviewed by two authors and discrepancies were resolved by consensus or by a third author. Data including overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), response rate (RR), and side-effects were extracted. A Bayesian network meta-analysis with random effects was performed using WinBUGS to compare all regimens simultaneously. Results: Twenty-two studies involving 6,252 patients were identified, with 21 RCTs involving G, 4 with GF, 3 with GCap, 2 with GS, 6 with GCis, 3 with GOx, 1 with GE, 1 with GA and 1 with FOLFIRINOX. Median OS, PFS and RR for G arms from all trials were similar, suggesting the absence of significant clinical heterogeneity among RCTs. For OS, the results of the Bayesian network meta-analysis found that the probability that FOLFIRINOX was the best regimen was 71%, while it was 19% for GS, 7% for GA and 2% for GE respectively. The OS hazard ratio (HR) for FOLFIRINOX vs. GS was 0.82 (95% credible region (CR): 0.53-1.35), the OS HR for FOLFIRINOX vs. GA was 0.77 (95% CR: 0.51-1.23), and the OS HR for FOLFIRINOX vs. GE was 0.67 (95% CR: 0.45-1.08). Similar ranking and probabilities were observed for the best regimen for PFS. Conclusions: FOLFIRINOX appeared to be the best regimen for advanced pancreatic cancer probabilistically, with a trend towards improvement in OS and PFS when compared with GS, GA, or GE by indirect comparisons. In the absence of direct pairwise comparisons of these regimens from RCTs, network meta-analysis helps synthesize evidence and inform decision making.

scholarly journals Robust Bayesian Inference for Set‐Identified Models

Econometrica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 89 (4) ◽  
pp. 1519-1556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaella Giacomini ◽  
Toru Kitagawa
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Structural Parameter ◽  
Vector Autoregressions ◽  
Finite Samples ◽  
Posterior Inference ◽  
Credible Region ◽  
Robust Bayesian Inference

This paper reconciles the asymptotic disagreement between Bayesian and frequentist inference in set‐identified models by adopting a multiple‐prior (robust) Bayesian approach. We propose new tools for Bayesian inference in set‐identified models and show that they have a well‐defined posterior interpretation in finite samples and are asymptotically valid from the frequentist perspective. The main idea is to construct a prior class that removes the source of the disagreement: the need to specify an unrevisable prior for the structural parameter given the reduced‐form parameter. The corresponding class of posteriors can be summarized by reporting the ‘posterior lower and upper probabilities’ of a given event and/or the ‘set of posterior means’ and the associated ‘robust credible region’. We show that the set of posterior means is a consistent estimator of the true identified set and the robust credible region has the correct frequentist asymptotic coverage for the true identified set if it is convex. Otherwise, the method provides posterior inference about the convex hull of the identified set. For impulse‐response analysis in set‐identified Structural Vector Autoregressions, the new tools can be used to overcome or quantify the sensitivity of standard Bayesian inference to the choice of an unrevisable prior.

scholarly journals BGP: Branched Gaussian processes for identifying gene-specific branching dynamics in single cell data

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis Boukouvalas ◽  
James Hensman ◽  
Magnus Rattray
Keyword(s):  
Gene Expression ◽  
Single Cell ◽  
Prior Information ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Credible Region ◽  
Cell Gene Expression ◽  
Probabilistic Nature ◽  
Cell Data ◽  
Cell Gene

AbstractHigh-throughput single-cell gene expression experiments can be used to uncover branching dynamics in cell populations undergoing differentiation through use of pseudotime methods. We develop the branching Gaussian process (BGP), a non-parametric model that is able to identify branching dynamics for individual genes and provides an estimate of branching times for each gene with an associated credible region. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on both synthetic data and a published single-cell gene expression hematopoiesis study. The method requires prior information about pseudotime and global cellular branching for each cell but the probabilistic nature of the method means that it is robust to errors in these global branch labels and can be used to discover early branching genes which diverge before the inferred global cell branching. The code is open-source and available at https://github.com/ManchesterBioinference/BranchedGP.

scholarly journals AGILE Observations of the LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-wave Events of the GWTC-1 Catalog

2022 ◽  
Vol 924 (2) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
A. Ursi ◽  
F. Verrecchia ◽  
G. Piano ◽  
C. Casentini ◽  
M. Tavani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Range ◽  
Gravitational Wave ◽  
Gamma Ray ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Agile Satellite ◽  
Credible Region ◽  
Soft Spectrum

Abstract We present a comprehensive review of AGILE follow-up observations of the Gravitational Wave (GW) events and the unconfirmed marginal triggers reported in the first LIGO-Virgo (LV) Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-1). For seven GW events and 13 LV triggers, the associated 90% credible region was partially or fully accessible to the AGILE satellite at the T 0; for the remaining events, the localization region was not accessible to AGILE due to passages into the South Atlantic Anomaly, or complete Earth occultations (as in the case of GW170817). A systematic search for associated transients, performed on different timescales and on different time intervals about each event, led to the detection of no gamma-ray counterparts. We report AGILE MCAL upper limit fluences in the 400 keV–100 MeV energy range, evaluated in a time window of T 0 ± 50 s around each event, as well as AGILE GRID upper limit (UL) fluxes in the 30 MeV–50 GeV energy range, evaluated in a time frame of T 0 ± 950 s around each event. All ULs are estimated at different integration times and are evaluated within the portions of GW credible region accessible to AGILE at the different times under consideration. We also discuss the possibility of AGILE MCAL to trigger and detect a weak soft-spectrum burst such as GRB 170817A.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document