Technological Progress and Health Convergence: The Case of Penicillin in Postwar Italy

Abstract Throughout history, technological progress has transformed population health, but the distributional effects of these gains are unclear. New substitutes for older, more expensive health technologies can produce convergence in population health outcomes but may also be prone to elite capture and thus divergence. We study the case of penicillin using detailed historical mortality statistics and exploiting its abruptly timed introduction in Italy after WWII. We find that penicillin reduced both the mean and standard deviation of infectious disease mortality, leading to substantial convergence across disparate regions of Italy. Our results do not appear to be driven by competing risks or confounded by mortality patterns associated with WWII.

Download Full-text

Mathematical and Statistical Study on COVID19- SIR Model

10.21203/rs.3.rs-89766/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jaydip Datta

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Statistical Study ◽

Sir Model ◽

Regression Method ◽

Mortality Statistics ◽

Disease Mortality ◽

Alternative Approach ◽

Bonding Method ◽

Molecular Bonding ◽

Method Approach

Abstract In this combinatorial study let us try to simulate the four cases starting from viral spreading kinetics , Gaussian distribution of the infectious disease , mortality statistics like infection fatality ratio ( IFR ) with the distribution of age of the patient through sigmoid regression method approach and finally the most important modeling of remdesivir on the basis of Molecular bonding method ( LCAO). It is an alternative approach to susceptibility – infectivity – recovery ( SIR ) model .

Download Full-text

Psychological distress and infectious disease mortality in the general population

Brain Behavior and Immunity ◽

10.1016/j.bbi.2018.12.011 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 76 ◽

pp. 280-283 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Mark Hamer ◽

Mika Kivimaki ◽

Emmanuel Stamatakis ◽

G. David Batty

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Psychological Distress ◽

General Population ◽

Disease Mortality

Download Full-text

Mortality in East African shorthorn zebu cattle under one year: predictors of infectious-disease mortality

BMC Veterinary Research ◽

10.1186/1746-6148-9-175 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 175 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Samuel M Thumbi ◽

Mark Bronsvoort ◽

Henry Kiara ◽

PG Toye ◽

Jane Poole ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Zebu Cattle ◽

East African ◽

Disease Mortality ◽

One Year

Download Full-text

Telephone Calls to an Infectious Diseases Fellow

PEDIATRICS ◽

10.1542/peds.95.5.753 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 95 (5) ◽

pp. 753-754

Author(s):

Mark F. Cotton

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Time Allocation ◽

Primary Care Physicians ◽

First Year ◽

Educational Value ◽

The Mean ◽

Telephone Calls ◽

The Impact ◽

Mean Time

Objective. There is no information on the impact and nature of telephone calls directed to subspecialists. The main objective was to document prospectively all calls directed to a first-year infectious diseases fellow, to determine their content, origin, educational value, and time allocation. Results. Three hundred fifty-nine calls were received over a 71-day period from March 24 through May 20, 1992. The mean number of daily calls was 5.1 ± 3.3. Mean time per call was 7 ± 5.4 minutes. Cumulatively, 41.7 hours were spent responding to telephone calls. The subgroup with the most calls (44.3%) was from pediatricians in practice. Seventy percent of calls were for advice about case management. Forty percent of calls were considered educational to the fellow. Conclusions. This study confirms the importance of the infectious disease subspecialist as a resource for primary care physicians.

Download Full-text

Age, period, and cohort effects on infectious disease mortality in Korea, 1983-2017

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckz186.490 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽

Author(s):

H-S Kim ◽

S J Eun

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Financial Crisis ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Age Groups ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Cohort Effects ◽

Economic Downturn ◽

Upward Trend ◽

Disease Mortality

Abstract Background Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death worldwide, and constitute a significant burden of disease, even in developed countries including Korea. Although different ages, periods, and cohorts may affect mortality, few studies analyzed the epidemiologic pattern of infectious disease mortality considering these effects. This study aimed to estimate the age-period-cohort effects on infectious disease mortality in Korea. Methods The national death certificate and census mid-year population estimates data from 1983 to 2017 were categorized into 5-year age groups and 5-year periods. Infant deaths were excluded due to incomplete data. Intrinsic estimator regression models were fitted to estimate age-period-cohort effects on infectious disease mortality. Results A J-shaped age effect declined from age 1-4 years (intrinsic estimator coefficient [IEC] 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52, 0.85), the lowest at age 20-24 years (IEC -1.68; 95% CI -1.85, -1.51), and then increased with age. The declining trend of period effects was slowed down in 1998-2002 (after the 1997-1998 Asian economic crisis), and turned to an upward trend from 2008-2012 (after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis). The cohort effect increased from the earliest cohort born before 1905 (IEC -1.17, 95% CI -1.35, -0.98), peaked in the 1941-1945 cohort (IEC 1.20, 95% CI 1.10, 1.29), then plateaued out (IEC ranged from 0.93 to 1.10), and has continued to decline since the 1966-1970 cohort in which rapid economic growth began. Conclusions There were clear age, period, and cohort effects on infectious disease mortality in Korea. Through the period and cohort effects, the economic downturn and upturn might have increased or reduced infectious disease mortality, respectively. Recent upward trend in infectious disease mortality after the 2008-2009 financial crisis suggests a need to strengthen prevention and control of infectious diseases. Key messages It is important to consider age-period-cohort effects in identifying the epidemiologic pattern of infectious disease mortality trend and finding its underlying drivers. Economic cycle might have influenced infectious disease mortality through period and cohort effects.

Download Full-text

Infectious disease mortality in two Outer Hebridean islands: 2. pulmonary tuberculosis

Annals of Human Biology ◽

10.1080/0301446031000121554 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 30 (4) ◽

pp. 472-486

Author(s):

E. J. Clegg

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Pulmonary Tuberculosis ◽

Disease Mortality

Download Full-text

Low Plasma Level of Cathelicidin Antimicrobial Peptide (hCAP18) Predicts Increased Infectious Disease Mortality in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

Clinical Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1086/596314 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 48 (4) ◽

pp. 418-424 ◽

Cited By ~ 92

Author(s):

Adrian F. Gombart ◽

Ishir Bhan ◽

Niels Borregaard ◽

Hector Tamez ◽

Carlos A. Camargo, Jr. ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Plasma Level ◽

Antimicrobial Peptide ◽

Disease Mortality

Download Full-text

The evolution of constitutive and induced defences to infectious disease

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2018.0658 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 285 (1883) ◽

pp. 20180658 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Mike Boots ◽

Alex Best

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Infectious Period ◽

Induced Defence ◽

Trade Off ◽

Disease Mortality ◽

Induced Defences ◽

High Virulence ◽

Constitutive Defence ◽

Very High

In response to infectious disease, hosts typically mount both constitutive and induced defences. Constitutive defence prevents infection in the first place, while induced defence typically shortens the infectious period. The two routes to defence, therefore, have very different implications not only to individuals but also to the epidemiology of the disease. Moreover, the costs of constitutive defences are likely to be paid even in the absence of disease, while induced defences are likely to incur the most substantial costs when they are used in response to infection. We examine theoretically the evolutionary implications of these fundamental differences. A key result is that high virulence in the parasite typically selects for higher induced defences even if they result in immunopathology leading to very high disease mortality. Disease impacts on fecundity are critical to the relative investment in constitutive and induced defence with important differences found when parasites castrate their hosts. The trade-off between constitutive and induced defence has been cited as a cause of the diversity in defence, but we show that the trade-off alone is unlikely to lead to diversity. Our models provide a framework to examine relative investment in different defence components both experimentally and in the field.

Download Full-text