Stepping into the Breach of Federal Inaction: Reforming the Financing of Long-Term Services and Supports in the Post-CLASS Era

Abstract This presentation documents the continuing failure to tackle the problem of financing long-term services and supports (LTSS)—a failure most recently seen in the only national legislation ever enacted to comprehensively address LTSS costs: the Community Living Assistance Services and Supports (CLASS) Act. The CLASS Act was included in the Affordable Care Act, but was repealed in 2013. Subsequently, policy experts and some Democrats have made proposals for addressing the LTSS financing crisis. Moreover, significant government action is taking place at the state level, both to relieve financial and emotional burdens on LTSS recipients and their families and to ease pressure on state budgets. Lessons from these initiatives could serve as opportunities for learning how to overcome roadblocks to successful policy development, adoption, and implementation across states and for traversing the policy and political tradeoffs should a policy window open once again for addressing the problem of LTSS financing nationally.

Download Full-text

Fundamentals-Based State-Level Forecasts of the 2020 US Presidential Election

10.31235/osf.io/cm58f ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Clemens Nollenberger ◽

Gina-Maria Unger

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Presidential Elections ◽

National Level ◽

State Level ◽

Electoral College ◽

Donald Trump ◽

Improve Accuracy ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Us Presidential Election

Forecasts of US presidential elections have gained considerable attention in recent years. However, as became evident in 2016 with the victory of Donald Trump, most of them consider presidential elections only at the national level, neglecting that these are ultimately decided by the Electoral College. In order to improve accuracy, we believe that forecasts should instead address outcomes at the state-level to determine the eventual Electoral College winner. We develop a political economy model of the incumbent vote share across states based on different short- and long-term predictors, referring up to the end of the second quarter of election years. Testing it against election outcomes since 1980, our model correctly predicts the eventual election winner in 9 out of 10 cases – including 2016 –, with the 2000 election being the exception. For the 2020 election, it expects Trump to lose the Electoral College, as only 6.2 percent of simulated outcomes cross the required threshold of 270 Electoral Votes, with a mean prediction of 106 Electoral Votes.

Download Full-text

Have we Dropped a Stitch? Collecting Born Digital Documentary Heritage in New Zealand Cultural Heritage Institutions

10.26686/wgtn.16992637 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Julia Mary Thompson

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Cultural Heritage ◽

Policy Development ◽

National Level ◽

Structured Interviews ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Digital Heritage ◽

Recommendations For Action ◽

Selection Factors

<p>This study explored the factors affecting the nature and extent of the collection of born digital materials for long-term retention by collecting repositories in New Zealand cultural heritage institutions, below the national level. This included exploration of selection factors, limiting and enabling factors affecting activities, preservation and acquisition policies for born digital materials, preservation procedures, and perceptions of roles and responsibilities. This two phase, mixed methods study consisted of a broad web survey followed by semi-structured interviews. The collecting repositories studied hold a range of born digital materials, but in small quantities. The collection of born digital heritage seems to be a new activity that requires additional resourcing and skills that are lacking in many of these collecting repositories. Levels of policy development are low and there is generally a lack of procedures for preserving born digital materials. However respondents generally perceived that collecting and preserving born digital materials was part of their role. The study concludes that the traditionally passive approach to acquisition of many of the collecting archives studied, combined with a lack of resourcing and expertise, pose a threat to the long term accessibility of local and regional born digital heritage. Some recommendations for action are provided.</p>

Download Full-text

A National Analysis of Medicaid Home and Community Based Services Waivers for People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities: FY 2015

Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities ◽

10.1352/1934-9556-55.5.281 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 55 (5) ◽

pp. 281-302 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Carli Friedman

Keyword(s):

Developmental Disabilities ◽

National Level ◽

Intellectual And Developmental Disabilities ◽

Community Based ◽

Day Habilitation ◽

Services And Supports ◽

National Analysis ◽

Regulation Changes ◽

Community Based Services

Abstract Medicaid Home and Community Based Services (HCBS) 1915(c) waivers are the largest source of funding for the long term services and supports of people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD). National-level analyses of HCBS IDD waivers are crucial because of the large variance across states, the recent CMS rule and regulation changes (CMS 2249-F/2296-F), and the ever changing economic and political landscape. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine state waiver priorities for people with IDD. In FY 2015, 111 waivers projected spending $25.6 billion for approximately 630,000 people with IDD. The services with the most funding were residential habilitation, supports to live in one's own home, and day habilitation. However, our analysis revealed large discrepancies across states and services.

Download Full-text

A Multiple Streams Analysis of Recent Changes to State-Level Dyslexia Education Law

Educational Policy ◽

10.1177/0895904818807328 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 34 (7) ◽

pp. 1036-1068

Author(s):

Brian Gearin ◽

Jessica Turtura ◽

Edward J. Kame’enui ◽

Nancy J. Nelson ◽

Hank Fien

Keyword(s):

Explicit Instruction ◽

State Level ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Multiple Streams ◽

Short Term ◽

School Practice ◽

Policy Window ◽

Multiple Streams Approach ◽

And Training

This article provides an overview of recent changes to state-level dyslexia legislation. It begins by applying a variant of Kingdon’s multiple streams approach to explain how the dyslexia education “policy window” came to be opened. The article then describes the most likely effects and side effects of the new laws. Likely short-term effects include (a) a greater focus in schools on dyslexia screening and intervention, (b) greater use of multitiered systems of support and explicit instruction, and (c) changes in teacher preparation and training. Possible long-term effects include a reconceptualization of what constitutes “normal” school practice.

Download Full-text

Accuracy of Nearly Extinct Cohort Methods for Estimating Very Elderly Subnational Populations

International Journal of Population Research ◽

10.1155/2015/978186 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 2015 ◽

pp. 1-16 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Wilma Terblanche ◽

Tom Wilson

Keyword(s):

Internal Migration ◽

Policy Development ◽

Regional Scale ◽

National Level ◽

State Level ◽

Estimation Methods ◽

Ratio Method ◽

Very Elderly ◽

Elderly Populations ◽

Survivor Ratio Method

Increasing very elderly populations (ages 85+) have potentially major implications for the cost of income support, aged care, and healthcare. The availability of accurate estimates for this population age group, not only at a national level but also at a state or regional scale, is vital for policy development, budgeting, and planning for services. At the highest ages census-based population estimates are well known to be problematic and previous studies have demonstrated that more accurate estimates can be obtained indirectly from death data. This paper assesses indirect estimation methods for estimating state-level very elderly populations from death counts. A method for incorporating internal migration is also proposed. The results confirm that the accuracy of official estimates deteriorates rapidly with increasing age from 95 and that the survivor ratio method can be successfully applied at subnational level and internal migration is minor. It is shown that the simpler alternative of applying the survivor ratio method at a national level and apportioning the estimates between the states produces very accurate estimates for most states and years. This is the recommended method. While the methods are applied at a state level in Australia, the principles are generic and are applicable to other subnational geographies.

Download Full-text

Have we Dropped a Stitch? Collecting Born Digital Documentary Heritage in New Zealand Cultural Heritage Institutions

10.26686/wgtn.16992637.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Julia Mary Thompson

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Cultural Heritage ◽

Policy Development ◽

National Level ◽

Structured Interviews ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Digital Heritage ◽

Recommendations For Action ◽

Selection Factors

<p>This study explored the factors affecting the nature and extent of the collection of born digital materials for long-term retention by collecting repositories in New Zealand cultural heritage institutions, below the national level. This included exploration of selection factors, limiting and enabling factors affecting activities, preservation and acquisition policies for born digital materials, preservation procedures, and perceptions of roles and responsibilities. This two phase, mixed methods study consisted of a broad web survey followed by semi-structured interviews. The collecting repositories studied hold a range of born digital materials, but in small quantities. The collection of born digital heritage seems to be a new activity that requires additional resourcing and skills that are lacking in many of these collecting repositories. Levels of policy development are low and there is generally a lack of procedures for preserving born digital materials. However respondents generally perceived that collecting and preserving born digital materials was part of their role. The study concludes that the traditionally passive approach to acquisition of many of the collecting archives studied, combined with a lack of resourcing and expertise, pose a threat to the long term accessibility of local and regional born digital heritage. Some recommendations for action are provided.</p>

Download Full-text

Immigration Politics and Partisan Realignment

State Politics & Policy Quarterly ◽

10.1177/1532440016645655 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 17 (1) ◽

pp. 3-23 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

James E. Monogan ◽

Austin C. Doctor

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Democratic Party ◽

Party Identification ◽

National Level ◽

State Level ◽

Demographic Groups ◽

Proposition 187 ◽

Immigration Politics ◽

Partisan Realignment

This article demonstrates how the party identification of various demographic groups in California and Texas changed in response to the gubernatorial campaigns of Pete Wilson and George W. Bush. Using aggregated time series of Field Poll, Texas Poll, and Gallup data, difference-in-differences results show that Wilson’s embrace of Proposition 187 was followed by significant Hispanic movement toward the Democratic Party in California. Time series analysis substantiates that this action led to a long-term 7.1 percentage point Democratic shift among California’s Hispanics. This suggests that state-level actors can influence partisan coalitions in their state, beyond what would be expected from national-level factors.

Download Full-text

Tennessee Education Savings Account: Tipping the Scales From Equity to Choice

Iris Journal of Scholarship ◽

10.15695/iris.v2i0.4771 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 ◽

pp. 98-110

Author(s):

Erin Curtin

Keyword(s):

School District ◽

School Choice ◽

State Level ◽

Poverty Line ◽

Comprehensive Education ◽

Policy Window ◽

Federal Poverty Line ◽

Scholarship Program ◽

Shelby County ◽

K 12

This article provides an analysis of Tennessee’s newly signed Education Savings Account policy, a school choice initiative. The policy provides vouchers, in the form of a debit card, to students in grades K-12 who are at or below 200% of the federal poverty line and are zoned to attend a Nashville, Shelby County, or Achievement School District school. Using the Policy Window Framework the author uncovers that the policy was created in a federal and state-level political convergence, which attempted to place equity at the forefront of the issue. However, using Levin's Comprehensive Education Privatization Framework, we can see that neoliberal ideals of choice and efficiency conquer equity in the finalized policy. The author predicts the outcomes of this new policy using this framework in tandem with 3 case studies: Louisiana Scholarship Program, DC Opportunity Scholarship Program, and Tennessee’s Individualized Education Accounts.

Download Full-text