scholarly journals Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 47-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Rogoff
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Paper Currency ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Massive Number ◽  
Zero Bound

Recently, the key constraint for central banks is the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Central banks fear that if they push short-term policy interest rates too deeply negative, there will be a massive flight into paper currency. This paper asks whether, in a world where paper currency is becoming increasingly vestigial outside small transactions (at least in the legal, tax compliant economy), there might be relatively simple ways to finesse the zero bound without affecting how most ordinary people live. Surprisingly, this question gets little attention compared to the massive number of articles that take the zero bound as given and look for out-of-the-box solutions for dealing with it. In an inversion of the old joke, it is a bit as if the economics literature has insisted on positing “assume we don't have a can opener,” without considering the possibility that we might be able to devise one. It makes sense not to wait until the next financial crisis to develop plans. Fundamentally, there is no practical obstacle to paying negative (or positive) interest rates on electronic currency and, as we shall see, effective negative rate policy does not require eliminating paper currency.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Zero Lower Bound

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (5) ◽  
pp. 39-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanley Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Equilibrium Real Interest Rate

Much has happened in the world of central banking in the past decade. In this paper, I focus on three issues associated with the zero lower bound (ZLB) on short-term nominal interest rates and the nexus between monetary policy and financial stability: 1) whether we are moving toward a permanently lower long-run equilibrium real interest rate; 2) what steps can be taken to mitigate the constraints imposed by the ZLB; and 3) whether and how financial stability considerations should be incorporated in the conduct of monetary policy. These important topics deserve the attention of both academic and government professionals.

New Chicago Views on Inflation Control: The Neo-Fisherian Approach and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-87
Author(s):  
Peter Spahn
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates

Abstract Whereas in former times, the ‘Chicago View’ in monetary policy stood for the Quantity Theory and money supply control, it is now the centre of unconventional approaches in macro theory. The Neo-Fisherian proposal suggests, in the case of low inflation and nominal interest rates pegged to the zero-lower bound, to increase policy rates immediately to the long-run equilibrium value that corresponds to the ‘natural’ real interest rate and the inflation target. The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level believes that goods prices jump to a level that validates the long-run sustainability condition of government debt even if central banks abstain from monetising. Both views are criticized for analytical and empirical reasons. Zusammenfassung Während in früheren Zeiten die ‘Chicago-Sicht’ in der Geldpolitik für die Quantitätstheorie und das Konzept der Geldmengensteuerung stand, werden heute damit unkonventionelle Positionen in der makroökonomischen Theorie assoziiert. Der neue Fisher-Ansatz empfiehlt, im Fall niedriger Inflation und einer Beschränkung durch die Null-Zins-Grenze die Zentralbankzinsen direkt auf das Niveau anzuheben, dass durch den ‘natürlichen’ Realzins und die Zielinflationsrate bestimmt ist. Die Fiskalische Theorie der Preise behauptet, dass das Güterpreisniveau auf einen Wert springt, der die langfristige reale Tragfähigkeit der Staatsschulden sichert, selbst wenn die Notenbank keine Monetisierung betreibt. Beide Positionen können empirisch nicht überzeugen und werden einer analytischen Kritik unterzogen. JEL Classification: E52, E58

scholarly journals Robust Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty About the Lower Bound

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Tillmann
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
True Location ◽  
Discretionary Monetary Policy

AbstractCentral banks face uncertainty about the true location of the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We model optimal discretionary monetary policy during a liquidity trap when the central bank designs policy that is robust with respect to the location of the ELB. If the central bank fears the worst-case location of the ELB, monetary conditions will be more expansionary in the period before the liquidity trap.

scholarly journals The Costs of Macroprudential Deleveraging in a Liquidity Trap

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (89) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaqian Chen ◽  
Daria Finocchiaro ◽  
Jesper Lindé ◽  
Karl Walentin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Transaction Costs ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Model Features

We examine the effects of various borrower-based macroprudential tools in a New Keynesian environment where both real and nominal interest rates are low. Our model features long-term debt, housing transaction costs and a zero-lower bound constraint on policy rates. We find that the long-term costs, in terms of forgone consumption, of all the macroprudential tools we consider are moderate. Even so, the short-term costs differ dramatically between alternative tools. Specifically, a loan-to-value tightening is more than twice as contractionary compared to loan-to-income tightening when debt is high and monetary policy cannot accommodate.

scholarly journals The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (3) ◽  
pp. 824-857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Del Negro ◽  
Gauti Eggertsson ◽  
Andrea Ferrero ◽  
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
Liquidity Frictions ◽  
Liquidity Shock ◽  
Zero Bound ◽  
Us Financial Crisis

We introduce liquidity frictions into an otherwise standard DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities and ask: can a shock to the liquidity of private paper lead to a collapse in short-term nominal interest rates and a recession like the one associated with the 2008 US financial crisis? Once the nominal interest rate reaches the zero bound, what are the effects of interventions in which the government provides liquidity in exchange for illiquid private paper? We find that the effects of the liquidity shock can be large, and show some numerical examples in which the liquidity facilities of the Federal Reserve prevented a repeat of the Great Depression in the period 2008–2009. (JEL E13, E31, E43, E44, E52, E58, G01)

scholarly journals Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (10) ◽  
pp. 3154-3185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric T. Swanson ◽  
John C. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy

According to standard macroeconomic models, the zero lower bound greatly reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy and increases the efficacy of fiscal policy. However, private-sector decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short-term interest rates, not just the current short-term rate. Put differently, longer-term yields matter. We show how to measure the zero bound's effects on yields of any maturity. Indeed, 1- and 2-year Treasury yields were surprisingly unconstrained throughout 2008 to 2010, suggesting that monetary and fiscal policy were about as effective as usual during this period. Only beginning in late 2011 did these yields become more constrained. (JEL E43, E52, E62)

scholarly journals Risks and the influence of negative interest rates on economic activity: a case study of Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-41
Author(s):  
Liběna Černohorská ◽  
Darina Kubicová
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of negative interest rates on economic activity in a selected group of countries, in particular Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland, for the period 2009–2018. The central banks of these countries were among the first to implement negative interest rates to revive the economic growth. Therefore, this study analyzed long- and short-term relationships between interest rates announced by central banks and gross domestic product and blue chip stock indices. Time series analysis was conducted using Engle-Granger cointegration analysis and Granger causality testing to identify long- and short-term relationship. The first step, using the Akaike criteria, was to determine the optimal delay of the entire time interval for the analyzed periods. Time series that seem to be stationary were excluded based on the results of the Dickey-Fuller test. Further testing continued with the Engle-Granger test if the conditions were met. It was designed to identify co-integration relationships that would show correlation between the selected variables. These tests showed that at a significance level of 0.05, there is no co-integration between any time series in the countries analyzed. On the basis of these analyses, it was determined that there were no long-term relationships between interest rates and GDP or stock indices for these countries during the monitored time period. Using Granger causality, the study only confirmed short-term relationship between interest rates and GDP for all examined countries, though not between interest rates and the stock indices. Acknowledgment The paper has been created with the financial support of The Czech Science Foundation GACR 18-05244S – Innovative Approaches to Credit Risk Management.

scholarly journals Negative Interest Rate Risk. Atavism or Normalization of Central Banks’ Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (342) ◽  
pp. 89-116
Author(s):  
Irena Pyka ◽  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

In the face of the global financial crisis, central banks have used unconventional monetary policy instruments. Firstly, they implemented the interest rate policy, lowering base interest rates to a very low (almost zero) level. However, in the following years they did not undertake normalizing activities. The macroeconomic environment required further initiatives. For the first time in history, central banks have adopted Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). The main aim of the study is to explore the risk accompanying the negative interest rate policy, aiming at identifying channels and consequences of its impact on the economy. The study verifies the research hypothesis stating that the risk of negative interest rates, so far unrecognized in Theory of Interest Rate, is a consequence of low effectiveness of monetary policy normalization and may adopt systemic nature, by influencing – through different channels – the financial stability and growth dynamics of the modern world economy.

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