scholarly journals Risks and the influence of negative interest rates on economic activity: a case study of Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-41
Author(s):  
Liběna Černohorská ◽  
Darina Kubicová
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of negative interest rates on economic activity in a selected group of countries, in particular Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland, for the period 2009–2018. The central banks of these countries were among the first to implement negative interest rates to revive the economic growth. Therefore, this study analyzed long- and short-term relationships between interest rates announced by central banks and gross domestic product and blue chip stock indices. Time series analysis was conducted using Engle-Granger cointegration analysis and Granger causality testing to identify long- and short-term relationship. The first step, using the Akaike criteria, was to determine the optimal delay of the entire time interval for the analyzed periods. Time series that seem to be stationary were excluded based on the results of the Dickey-Fuller test. Further testing continued with the Engle-Granger test if the conditions were met. It was designed to identify co-integration relationships that would show correlation between the selected variables. These tests showed that at a significance level of 0.05, there is no co-integration between any time series in the countries analyzed. On the basis of these analyses, it was determined that there were no long-term relationships between interest rates and GDP or stock indices for these countries during the monitored time period. Using Granger causality, the study only confirmed short-term relationship between interest rates and GDP for all examined countries, though not between interest rates and the stock indices. Acknowledgment The paper has been created with the financial support of The Czech Science Foundation GACR 18-05244S – Innovative Approaches to Credit Risk Management.

The Impact of Monetary Activity upon Regional Housing Markets: A Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis

1985 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 889-904 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Marchand
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Residential Construction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis ◽  
Major Cycle ◽  
The Impact

The application of maximum entropy spectral analysis to time series measuring economic activity in Canada allows the identification of the time scales of cyclical variations specific to given sectors and to five diverse regions. Aggregate economic activity as measured by the unemployment rate is influenced by a major cycle and seasonal variations. In contrast, monetary activity is solely dominated by a [Formula: see text]-year cycle and can only be an efficient policy device for sectors which fluctuate around the same periodicity on the short term. Such is the case for residential construction which is shown to cohere moderately with interest rates as well as to lag changes in such rates by a significant time span.

Eurozone on the Verge of Widespread Negative Interest Rates

2020 ◽  
Vol 144 ◽  
pp. 50-54
Author(s):  
Vladimir G. Tyminskij
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Lending Rates

The global economy, including the eurozone, experienced a shock in 2008. As one of the consequences, central banks of the largest economies in the world, in order to support economic activity, reduced interest rates on loans. Although 11 years have passed, in the eurozone lending rates still remain extremely low. This indicates that the monetary union has not yet recovered from the post-crisis state. In fact, more and more probable is becoming a recently inconceivable scenario that the eurozone for a long time will get into the era of negative interest rates

scholarly journals Financing Growth through Remittances and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidences from Balkan Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
Esmeralda Jushi ◽  
Eglantina Hysa ◽  
Arjona Cela ◽  
Mirela Panait ◽  
Marian Catalin Voica
Keyword(s):  
Developing Economies ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Balkan Countries ◽  
To Come ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
The Impact

The ultimate goal of central banks, worldwide, is to promote the foundations for sustainable economic growth. In the case of developing economies, in particular, such objective requires time, huge efforts, attention, and plenty of resources in order to be accomplished to the fullest degree. This paper thoroughly investigates key factors affecting Balkan countries’ economic development (as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) growth), focusing especially on the impact of remittances. The analysis was done over an 18-year time interval (2000–2017) and builds on 144 observations. The data figures were retrieved from the World Bank database while two dummies were created to test the impact of the last financial crisis (2008–2012). Econometric tools were employed to carry out a broad analysis on the interdependencies that exist and, in particular, to determine the role of remittance income on growth. The vector auto regressive model was estimated using EViews software, and was used to come up with relevant insights. Empirical findings suggest the following: population growth, remittances, and labor force participation are insignificant factors for sustainable growth. On the other hand, previous levels of GDP, trade, and foreign direct investments (FDIs) appear to be relevant for the predictor. This research provides up-to-date conclusions, which can be considered during the decision-making process of central banks, as well as by government policymakers.

Overburdened Gauls: the case of Florus and Sacrovir’s revolt of 21 CE

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared Kreiner
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Economies ◽  
Scale Resistance ◽  
Military Campaigns ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In 21 CE, a series of localized movements broke out in Gallia Comata due to heavy debts among provincials according to Tacitus. Modern scholars have long argued that the indebtedness occurred because of rising interest rates, resulting from dwindling currency in circulation after decades of free-spending following Augustus’ victory at Actium, and that Gallic communities were subjected to an additional tribute to support the wars of Germanicus (14–16 CE), which continued unabated after the wars and pushed Gauls beyond their means. These claims are misguided, however, in that there is no certain evidence of a special tax to support Germanicus’ wars and that the argument for a dwindling circulation of currency in Gaul falters under closer inspection. Rather, the pressing statal and military needs imposed on communities in Gallia Comata after 9 CE on top of routine exactions could significantly increase burden levels levied on provincial populations, thus contributing to rising debts. Through examining how Roman logistics and conscription operated in this period, it is possible to trace how populations were impacted by such demands and which communities were most heavily affected by them, too. Individually, the impact of each factor is unlikely to have been burdensome enough to have caused large-scale resistance, it is only the cumulative effect that these explanations had on top of routine Roman extraction schemes that could create the conditions for this revolt. This paper argues that in extraordinary circumstances, such as the period after the Varian Disaster for Gallia Comata, the costs of supporting military campaigns places real short-term strains on local economies, which creates the conditions for revolt. The benefit of this approach is that it may explain other episodes of anti-fiscal resistance that broke out during or within a decade of wars in neighboring regions.

scholarly journals Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales

2007 ◽  
Vol 191 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa A. Page ◽  
Shakoor Hajat ◽  
R. Sari Kovats
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuation ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Hot Weather ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

BackgroundSeasonal fluctuation in suicide has been observed in many populations. High temperature may contribute to this, but the effect of short-term fluctuations in temperature on suicide rates has not been studied.AimsTo assess the relationship between daily temperature and daily suicide counts in England and Wales between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2003 and to establish whether heatwaves are associated with increased mortality from suicide.MethodTime-series regression analysis was used to explore and quantify the relationship between daily suicide counts and daily temperature. The impact of two heatwaves on suicide was estimated.ResultsNo spring or summer peak in suicide was found. Above 18 °, each 1 ° increase in mean temperature was associated with a 3.8 and 5.0% rise in suicide and violent suicide respectively. Suicide increased by 46.9% during the 1995 heatwave, whereas no change was seen during the 2003 heat wave.ConclusionsThere is increased risk of suicide during hot weather.

Measuring Value Change in Western Industrialized Societies: The Impact of Unemployment

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (3) ◽  
pp. 905-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Nitish Dutt
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Value Change ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Past ◽  
Value Priorities ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact

During the past two decades a four-item battery administered in biannual Euro-Barometer surveys has been used to measure changing value priorities in Western European countries. We provide evidence that the measure is seriously flawed. Pooled cross-sectional time series analyses for the 1976–86 period reveal that the Euro-Barometer postmaterialist-materialist value index and two of its components are very sensitive to short-term changes in economic conditions, and that the failure to include a statement about unemployment in the four-item values battery accounts for much of the apparent growth of postmaterialist values in several countries after 1980. The aggregate-level findings are buttressed by analyses of panel data from three countries.

Introduced flow variability and its propagation downstream of hydropower stations in Sweden

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Elenius ◽  
Göran Lindström
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Ecological Impact ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Swedish Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydropower Stations

<p>Hydropower provides a low-carbon solution to a large portion of Sweden’s energy demand, which is increasingly important in order to combat climate change. However, associated flow regulations introduce variability of the flow on the daily, weekly and seasonal time scales, driven by the varying energy demand. Additional variability is introduced when compensating for the shifting wind energy production. The Water framework directive requires all EU member states to evaluate the ecological impact from anthropogenic activities, such as hydropower. Ecological impacts must also be assessed when all hydropower permissions in Sweden are renewed over the coming 20 years. Because different species are sensitive to different longevity of high- and low-flow periods, it is important to understand the introduced variability of flow in terms of its dominant periods, and how quickly these perturbations are attenuated downstream of regulations.</p><p>In this work, time-series of flow from hydrological simulations with HYPE are analyzed with the Fourier transform to examine the amplitudes of perturbations of different periods, and their decay downstream of hydropower stations. HYPE is a catchment-based model that simulates rainfall-runoff as well as water quality processes. The Swedish model application has been developed over the past decade and covers all of Sweden. Seasonal regulations are modeled with calibrated input parameters, whereas short-term regulations are introduced with station updates from observations that are available at or close to the majority of hydropower regulations. Very high accuracy has been proven between the updated sub-catchments. This, together with a verified model for natural flow, gives us a unique opportunity to study the impact of hydropower on dominant periods and their decay over the entire country, as well as the mechanisms that govern this decay.</p><p>In many sub-catchments, especially in large regulated rivers in northern Sweden, Fourier analysis of daily time series results in dominance of the 7-day period. The exponential decay rate of this and other modes is presented for all Sweden and analyzed in terms of land use and other parameters. Short periods decay faster than long ones. Periods of one month or longer are amplified in the downstream direction in most of Sweden.</p><p>Apart from aid in ecological assessments, our analysis can be used to introduce short-term regulations in hydrological simulators, for either deterministic forecasts (the 7-day mode typically has a minimum value on Sundays) or for stochastic seasonal forecasts where it will impact indicators such as the number of days below or above a threshold.</p>

Money laundering in a CBDC world: a game of cats and mice

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Dupuis ◽  
Kimberly Gleason ◽  
Zhijie Wang
Keyword(s):  
Money Laundering ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Digital Currency ◽  
Individual Privacy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this study is to describe the present taxonomy of money, summarize potential central bank digital currency (CBDC) regimes that central banks worldwide could adopt and explore the implications of the introduction of each of these CDBC regimes for money laundering through the lens of the regulatory dialectic theory. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used in the analysis of significant recent events regarding the progress of central banks in establishing a CBDC and the implications for money laundering under a CBDC regime. This paper also reviews the literature regarding the Regulatory Dialectic to highlight potential innovative responses of money launderers to circumvent the controls generated through the implementation of a CBDC. Findings This study examines the impact of Kane’s regulatory dialectic paradigm on the feasibility of money laundering under a CBDC regime and identifies potential avenues that would be available for those seeking to launder money, based on the form a CBDC would take. Research limitations/implications This paper is unable as of yet to empirically evaluate anti-money laundering (AML) tactics under a CBDC regime as it has not yet been fully implemented. Practical implications Many central banks worldwide are evaluating the structure of and introduction of a CBDC. There are a number of forms that a CBDC could take, each of which has implications for individual privacy and for entities involved in AML efforts within financial institutions and the regulatory community. The paper has implications for AML experts who are considering how AML procedures would change under a CBDC regime. Social implications The regulatory dialectic predicts that regulatory response reactive, rather than proactive when it comes to socially undesirable phenomena. As central banks and governments seek to divert economic activity away from the laundering of the proceeds of illicit activity, there are tradeoffs in terms of a loss of privacy. The regulatory dialectic predicts a corresponding innovative response of those who wish to undermine the controls generated through the establishment of a CBDC. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to explore the impact of a potential CBDC on money laundering and the potential innovative circumventions within the paradigm of the Regulatory Dialectic.

scholarly journals Money Neutrality, Monetary Aggregates and Machine Learning

Algorithms ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Periklis Gogas ◽  
Theophilos Papadimitriou ◽  
Emmanouil Sofianos
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Divisia Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Vector Machines ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Run

The issue of whether or not money affects real economic activity (money neutrality) has attracted significant empirical attention over the last five decades. If money is neutral even in the short-run, then monetary policy is ineffective and its role limited. If money matters, it will be able to forecast real economic activity. In this study, we test the traditional simple sum monetary aggregates that are commonly used by central banks all over the world and also the theoretically correct Divisia monetary aggregates proposed by the Barnett Critique (Chrystal and MacDonald, 1994; Belongia and Ireland, 2014), both in three levels of aggregation: M1, M2, and M3. We use them to directionally forecast the Eurocoin index: A monthly index that measures the growth rate of the euro area GDP. The data span from January 2001 to June 2018. The forecasting methodology we employ is support vector machines (SVM) from the area of machine learning. The empirical results show that: (a) The Divisia monetary aggregates outperform the simple sum ones and (b) both monetary aggregates can directionally forecast the Eurocoin index reaching the highest accuracy of 82.05% providing evidence against money neutrality even in the short term.

scholarly journals Sustainable Approach to the Normalization Process of the UK’s Monetary Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9229
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Synthesis Method ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Short Term Prediction ◽  
Normalization Process

It has been more than a decade since central banks, in the face of the global financial crisis, implemented a set of unconventional initiatives that included a rapid and significant decrease in their main interest rates and an unprecedented balance sheet policy. Thus far, they still have not returned their monetary policy to the pre-crisis framework and have not implemented a normalization process. Currently, a trend of using econometric models in monetary policy for forecasting purposes has been observed. Among these models, Bayesian vector autoregression models (BVAR models) are increasingly being used by central banks. The main aim of this study was to conduct an empirical verification of the BVAR model’s usage for short-term prediction which could then be used for a sustainable (ordered) normalization process for the UK’s monetary policy. This study verifies a research hypothesis which states that the BVAR model might be a useful tool in the Bank of England’s decision-making process regarding the normalization of its monetary policy. Additionally, the cause and effect analysis, observation method, document analysis method, and synthesis method were also considered. The conducted research indicates that a large BVAR model has a significant predictive value for short-term forecasting.

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