SRES, IPCC and the Treatment of Economic Issues: What Has Emerged?

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 549-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Henderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United Nations Environment Programme ◽  
Economic Aspects ◽  
Select Committee ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
House Of Lords ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Expert Meeting ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

This article reviews and extends the continuing debate on the treatment of economic issues by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Following an introduction, it has four main parts. Section 2, with its accompanying Annex 1, deals with one of the leading technical issues in the debate. It argues that, contrary to IPCC-related sources and some other analysts, exchange rates should not enter into measures or projections of output (real GDP). Section 3, in conjunction with Annexes 2 and 3, reviews again the projections of GDP and emissions that emerge from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). It brings out in particular some confusions that have entered into the IPCC process and the arguments deployed in its defence. Section 4 lists the main weaknesses of the SRES, which are not a matter of the specific projections that it makes. These weaknesses cast doubt on the Panel's decision to use the SRES as a point of departure for its Fourth Assessment Report which is now in course of preparation. Section 5 considers the IPCC process as a whole. Attention is drawn again to the mishandling of economic evidence in IPCC documents and by the United Nations Environment Programme which is one of the IPCC's two parent agencies. New evidence of the professionally unrepresentative status of the IPCC milieu is cited from two sources: The Expert Meeting on Emissions Scenarios convened by the IPCC in January 2005; and the proceedings of the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs which has just reviewed ‘economic aspects of climate change’. The IPCC's dismissive response to independent critics, as illustrated in Annex 3, means that its handling of economic issues can be improved only if its member governments take action. Effective action will require in particular the involvement of the central economic departments of state: these will have to show greater awareness of what is at stake than Her Majesty's Treasury in its evidence to the Select Committee. More broadly, and going beyond economic aspects, it is high time to put in question the IPCC's status as a monopoly provider of information to governments on issues relating to climate change.

scholarly journals Most plausible 2005-2040 emissions scenarios project less than 2.5 degrees C of warming by 2100

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Pielke ◽  
Matthew G. Burgess ◽  
Justin Ritchie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Research Policy ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Policy And Planning

Emissions scenarios are central to climate change research, policy, and planning. Recent studies question plausibility of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) high-emissions scenarios, while others cast doubt on the achievability of a 1.5-degrees-C-by-2100 target. Here, we identify the subsets of scenarios of the IPCC 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports that project 2005-2040 fossil-fuel CO2 emissions growth rates most consistently with observations from 2005-2020 and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections to 2040. 71% of these scenarios project between 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 degrees C. Our results suggest the world may be better positioned with respect to CO2 emissions than often assumed, but is off track from 1.5 degrees C targets.

The Treatment of Economic Issues by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 321-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Henderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Policy Process ◽  
Business School ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Economic Aspects ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Economic Issues

Issues relating to climate change, and to the choice of policies for dealing with it, are now highly topical. In Britain, both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition have recently emphasised the urgent need for measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and Mr Blair has stated his intention to place this issue high on the agenda of the coming G8 summit meeting. In this context, readers may be interested to hear of some recent exchanges relating to economic aspects of these issues. Aside from their intrinsic interest, the exchanges raise wider questions as to the role of economics and economists in the policy process. David Henderson, formerly (among other things) Head of the Economics and Statistics Department of the OECD, and now Visiting Professor at the Westminster Business School, has been one of the participants in the current debate. This is his personal report.

Systematic exploration of scenario spaces

foresight ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Carlsen ◽  
E. Anders Eriksson ◽  
Karl Henrik Dreborg ◽  
Bengt Johansson ◽  
Örjan Bodin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Generating Sets ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Systematic Exploration ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Business As Usual

Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.

Empirical models for forecasting changes in the phenology of ice cover for Canadian lakes

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (7) ◽  
pp. 982-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.J. Shuter ◽  
C.K. Minns ◽  
S.R. Fung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Spring Break ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Break Up ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Phenology Model ◽  
Ice Phenology

In situ and remote-sensed data on freeze-up and break-up dates for lakes spread over much of Canada were used to develop and validate simple regression models linking lake ice phenology to climatic conditions and lake morphometry. The primary variables affecting fall freeze-up dates were the fall date when 30-day smoothed air temperatures reached 0 °C and lake mean depth; the primary variables affecting spring break-up date were the spring date when 30-day smoothed air temperatures reached 0 °C, solar elevation on that date, and the number of days over winter when 30-day smoothed air temperatures were <0 °C. These models were used to project potential impacts of climate change on ice phenology across Canada; by 2055 (under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 emissions scenario), freeze-up dates were projected to be an average of 10 days later. Break-up dates were projected to be from 0 to 16 days earlier, with greater changes occurring at higher latitudes. These projections were similar to those independently derived using a mechanistic ice phenology model.

Science and Climate Change Law—The Role of the IPCC in International Decision-Making

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Navraj Singh Ghaleigh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United Nations Environment Programme ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Current State ◽  
Scientific Papers ◽  
Working Groups ◽  
Scientific Technical ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Change Climate

This chapter describes the contributions of the scientific community in the development of international climate change law, highlighting in particular the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) assessment and research of the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of climate change. Since the Panel’s establishment under the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988, it has released several scientific papers that provide a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change. The chapter examines the core of the IPCC’s assessment reports, which are divided into three working groups that deal respectively with the ‘Physical Science Basis of Climate Change’, ‘Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, and ‘Mitigation of Climate Change’. The IPCC also addresses specific areas, such as renewable energy, disaster management, and climate engineering.

Climate Change and Freshwater Availability: Present and Future Challenges

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Izzadin Ali ◽  
Dasimah Omar ◽  
Siti Mazwin Kamaruddin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The People ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Vital Resource ◽  
Freshwater Availability

The interrelationship between freshwater availability with the growing population and climate change estimates is complex. This article investigates climate change role in freshwater resources availability. This is critical issue as freshwater is vital resource for life, and it is in stake as it is depleted worldwide. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was discussed. This paper elucidates the climate model downscaling methods used by scholars for future projections. The applications of modelling could provide a holistic approach based on historical data to predict the effect of climate change on the availability of freshwater. However, the people variability uncertainties dominate assessments of freshwater stress, whilst climate change projections uncertainties are more hypothesized to play a smaller role than people. 

scholarly journals Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Jacinto ◽  
M. J. Cruz ◽  
F. D. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Technological Developments ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

Abstract. The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2) adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1) characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2) identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3) identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4) production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes). The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16%) in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%). All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

scholarly journals Climate Change 1995

1998 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 275
Author(s):  
Gregory T. Watts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
United Nations Environment Programme ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Current State ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Nations Environment

Climate Change 1995 is a scientific assessment that was generated by more than 1 000 contributors from over 50 nations. It was jointly co-ordinated through two international agencies; the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme. The assessment was completed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with a primary aim of reviewing the current state of knowledge concerning the impacts of climate change on physical and ecological systems, human health, and socioeconomic factors. The second aim was to review the available information on the technical and economic feasibility of the potential mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Australian Participation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2008 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
John W. Zillman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
United Nations Environment Programme ◽  
Scientific Integrity ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Response Options ◽  
Climate Change Issue ◽  
The Us ◽  
Working Groups

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988 to provide an authoritative assessment of the state of knowledge of climate change science and impacts and to develop realistic strategies for management of the climate change issue. Following the establishment of a separate United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change and the subsequent signing and entry into force of the Convention, the IPCC reverted to the role of providing policy-neutral but policy-relevant assessments of the contemporary state of knowledge, as contained in the published literature, of the science, impacts and response options for climate change. Australian Government representatives and Australian climate scientists played a major part in the establishment of the IPCC and its operation over the past twenty years including key roles in the preparation of virtually all of its reports. Australia chaired the committee which proposed the structure and membership of the initial IPCC Working Groups, served as Vice-Chair of the Impacts Working Group for the IPCC's First Assessment Report, engaged more national experts in the review of its first assessment of the science of climate change than any other country except the US, has provided almost one hundred Lead Authors and several hundred reviewers for its four major assessments and has served continuously on its coordinating Bureau since its inception. Australian delegations have participated in every formal intergovernmental session of the Panel and its Working Groups and have made a significant contribution to the scientific integrity of the IPCC assessment process.

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