Climate Change and Freshwater Availability: Present and Future Challenges

The interrelationship between freshwater availability with the growing population and climate change estimates is complex. This article investigates climate change role in freshwater resources availability. This is critical issue as freshwater is vital resource for life, and it is in stake as it is depleted worldwide. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was discussed. This paper elucidates the climate model downscaling methods used by scholars for future projections. The applications of modelling could provide a holistic approach based on historical data to predict the effect of climate change on the availability of freshwater. However, the people variability uncertainties dominate assessments of freshwater stress, whilst climate change projections uncertainties are more hypothesized to play a smaller role than people.

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Climate Change and Freshwater Availability: Present and Future Challenges

Scientific Research Journal ◽

10.24191/srj.v13i1.9380 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 25

Author(s):

Izzadin Ali ◽

Dasimah Omar ◽

Siti Mazwin Kamaruddin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Holistic Approach ◽

Critical Issue ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The People ◽

Future Challenges ◽

Emissions Scenarios ◽

Vital Resource ◽

Freshwater Availability

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Pan-spectral observing system simulation experiments of shortwave reflectance and long-wave radiance for climate model evaluation

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-8-1943-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 8 (7) ◽

pp. 1943-1954 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

D. R. Feldman ◽

W. D. Collins ◽

J. L. Paige

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Climate System ◽

Spectral Measurements ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Climate System Model ◽

Detection And Attribution ◽

Long Wave ◽

Hadley Centre

Abstract. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectrally resolved shortwave reflectances and long-wave radiances describe the response of the Earth's surface and atmosphere to feedback processes and human-induced forcings. In order to evaluate proposed long-duration spectral measurements, we have projected 21st Century changes from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 Emissions Scenario onto shortwave reflectance spectra from 300 to 2500 nm and long-wave radiance spectra from 2000 to 200 cm−1 at 8 nm and 1 cm−1 resolution, respectively. The radiative transfer calculations have been rigorously validated against published standards and produce complementary signals describing the climate system forcings and feedbacks. Additional demonstration experiments were performed with the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5) and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) models for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The calculations contain readily distinguishable signatures of low clouds, snow/ice, aerosols, temperature gradients, and water vapour distributions. The goal of this effort is to understand both how climate change alters reflected solar and emitted infrared spectra of the Earth and determine whether spectral measurements enhance our detection and attribution of climate change. This effort also presents a path forward to understand the characteristics of hyperspectral observational records needed to confront models and inline instrument simulation. Such simulation will enable a diverse set of comparisons between model results from coupled model intercomparisons and existing and proposed satellite instrument measurement systems.

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Systematic exploration of scenario spaces

foresight ◽

10.1108/fs-02-2015-0011 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

pp. 59-75 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Henrik Carlsen ◽

E. Anders Eriksson ◽

Karl Henrik Dreborg ◽

Bengt Johansson ◽

Örjan Bodin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Methodological Approach ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Climate Change Research ◽

Content Type ◽

Generating Sets ◽

Ex Post ◽

Systematic Exploration ◽

Emissions Scenarios ◽

Business As Usual

Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.

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An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets

Earth System Science Data ◽

10.5194/essd-12-2959-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 2959-2970

Author(s):

Maialen Iturbide ◽

José M. Gutiérrez ◽

Lincoln M. Alves ◽

Joaquín Bedia ◽

Ruth Cerezo-Mota ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Scatter Plots ◽

Projected Changes

Abstract. Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).

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Spatially resolved past and projected changes of the suitable thermal habitat of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) under climate change

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fsz132 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 76 (7) ◽

pp. 2389-2403

Author(s):

Ismael Núñez-Riboni ◽

Marc H Taylor ◽

Alexander Kempf ◽

Miriam Püts ◽

Moritz Mathis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Sea ◽

Gadus Morhua ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Southern Bight ◽

Spatially Resolved ◽

The North

Abstract Previous studies have identified changes in habitat temperature as a major factor leading to the geographical displacement of North Sea cod in the last decades. However, the degree to which thermal suitability is presently changing in different regions of the North Sea is still unclear, or if temperature alone (or together with fishery) is responsible for this displacement. In this study, the spatial distribution of different life stages of cod was modelled from 1967 to 2015. The model is fit point-to-point, spatially resolved at scales of 20 km. The results show that suitability has decreased south of 56°N (>12% in the Southern Bight) and increased north of it (with maximum of roughly 10% in southern Skagerrak). Future changes to suitability were estimated throughout the century using temperature projections from a regional climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario RCP8.5. The results show that southern Skagerrak, the central and northern North Sea and the edge of the Norwegian trench will remain thermally suitable for North Sea cod throughout the century. This detailed geographical representation of thermally suitable key zones for North Sea cod under climate change is revealed for the first time through the improved resolution of this analysis.

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Atmospheric Blocking and Mean Biases in Climate Models

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/2010jcli3728.1 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 23 (23) ◽

pp. 6143-6152 ◽

Cited By ~ 134

Author(s):

Adam A. Scaife ◽

Tim Woollings ◽

Jeff Knight ◽

Gill Martin ◽

Tim Hinton

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Small Scale ◽

Model Data ◽

Atmospheric Blocking ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Weather And Climate ◽

Main Culprit

Abstract Models often underestimate blocking in the Atlantic and Pacific basins and this can lead to errors in both weather and climate predictions. Horizontal resolution is often cited as the main culprit for blocking errors due to poorly resolved small-scale variability, the upscale effects of which help to maintain blocks. Although these processes are important for blocking, the authors show that much of the blocking error diagnosed using common methods of analysis and current climate models is directly attributable to the climatological bias of the model. This explains a large proportion of diagnosed blocking error in models used in the recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change report. Furthermore, greatly improved statistics are obtained by diagnosing blocking using climate model data corrected to account for mean model biases. To the extent that mean biases may be corrected in low-resolution models, this suggests that such models may be able to generate greatly improved levels of atmospheric blocking.

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An overview of the EUCP project – towards improved European Climate Predictions and Projections

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19475 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Jason A. Lowe ◽

Carol McSweeney ◽

Chris Hewitt

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Decision Making ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Public And Private ◽

The People ◽

Local Actors ◽

Model Ensembles ◽

Public And Private Sector

There is clear evidence that, even with the most favourable emission pathways over coming decades, there will be a need for society to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change. To do this regional, national and local actors need up-to-date information on the changing climate with clear accompanying detail on the robustness of the information. This needs to be communicated to both public and private sector organisations, ideally as part of a process of co-developing solutions.EUCP is an H2020 programme that began in December 2017 with the aim of researching and testing the provision of improved climate predictions and projections for Europe for the next 40+ years, and drawing on the expertise of researchers from a number of major climate research institutes across Europe. It is also engaging with users of climate change information through a multiuser forum (MUF) to ensure that what we learn will match the needs of the people who need if for decision making and planning.The first big issue that EUCP seeks to address is how better to use ensembles of climate model projections, moving beyond the one-model-one-vote philosophy. Here, the aim is to better understand how model ensembles might be constrained or sub-selected, and how multiple strands of information might be combined into improved climate change narratives or storylines. The second area where EUCP is making progress is in the use of very high-resolution regional climate simulations that are capable of resolving aspects of atmospheric convection. Present day and future simulations from a new generation of regional models ae being analysed in EUCP and will be used in a number of relevant case studies. The third issue that EUCP will consider is how to make future simulations more seamless across those time scales that are most relevant user decision making. This includes generating a better understanding of predictability over time and its sources in initialised forecasts, and also how to transition from the initialised forecasts to longer term boundary forced climate projections.This presentation will provide an overview of the challenges being addressed by EUCP and the approaches the project is using. &#160;

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Empirical models for forecasting changes in the phenology of ice cover for Canadian lakes

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences ◽

10.1139/cjfas-2012-0437 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 70 (7) ◽

pp. 982-991 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

B.J. Shuter ◽

C.K. Minns ◽

S.R. Fung

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Spring Break ◽

Air Temperatures ◽

Emissions Scenarios ◽

Break Up ◽

Ipcc Sres ◽

Phenology Model ◽

Ice Phenology

In situ and remote-sensed data on freeze-up and break-up dates for lakes spread over much of Canada were used to develop and validate simple regression models linking lake ice phenology to climatic conditions and lake morphometry. The primary variables affecting fall freeze-up dates were the fall date when 30-day smoothed air temperatures reached 0 °C and lake mean depth; the primary variables affecting spring break-up date were the spring date when 30-day smoothed air temperatures reached 0 °C, solar elevation on that date, and the number of days over winter when 30-day smoothed air temperatures were <0 °C. These models were used to project potential impacts of climate change on ice phenology across Canada; by 2055 (under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 emissions scenario), freeze-up dates were projected to be an average of 10 days later. Break-up dates were projected to be from 0 to 16 days earlier, with greater changes occurring at higher latitudes. These projections were similar to those independently derived using a mechanistic ice phenology model.

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Climate Adaptation as Organizational Learning: A Grounded Theory Study on Manufacturing Companies in a Bavarian Region

Education Sciences ◽

10.3390/educsci12010022 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 22

Author(s):

Sophie Fischer ◽

Luzia Keupp ◽

Heiko Paeth ◽

Michael Göhlich ◽

Jan Schmitt

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Grounded Theory ◽

Organizational Learning ◽

Climate Model ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Business Case ◽

Expert Interviews ◽

Manufacturing Companies ◽

Future Challenges

Climate adaptation supports organizations in dealing with the current and projected effects of climate change by recognizing challenges as opportunities and increasing their economic efficiency. Based on the regional climate model REMO and 13 expert interviews with representatives from mainly manufacturing companies analyzed by the Grounded Theory methodology, this contribution aims to outline actual and future challenges of climate adaptation in the investigated region. We analyze how manufacturing companies respond to climate change and assess the main promoters and barriers of organizational learning in the context of climate adaptation. The expert interviews confirm the importance for companies of having a concrete business case for any strategies and of increasingly making their processes and manufacturing more transparent, through supply chain assessments. In accordance, a focus on strategic management levels is crucial for organizational learning processes as they are responsible for development, mobilization of resources and realization of adaptation concepts.

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Discourses of Vulnerability: Kiribati, I-Kiribati Women and Forced Migration Due to Climate Change

10.26686/wgtn.17005018 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Holly Mansfield

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Public Discourse ◽

Pacific Islands ◽

Forced Migration ◽

Power Relationships ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The People ◽

Vulnerability To Climate Change ◽

Close Analysis ◽

The Pacific

Discourses of vulnerability abound in climate change literature; both particular types of places and particular groups of people are routinely considered especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Such discourses are employed by the international community in a technical manner—attempting to categorise current and expected degrees of impact on places and populations—and also to support the advocacy of urgent action to respond to climate change. This thesis examines the manner in which discourses of vulnerability are being invoked in discussions about the impacts of climate change and considers what impact this has on the people and places that are being described in this way. This research focuses specifically on Kiribati and I-Kiribati women and explores, in particular, how the debate about forced migration (as a possible outcome of climate change) has been shaped by vulnerability discourses. Both Kiribati, as a specific type of geographical entity, and women, as a category of people, have been described as having extreme vulnerability to climate change. It is not new for either Pacific Islands or women to be framed as “vulnerable”; however with the increased attention to climate change, vulnerability discourses are being used with such frequency that it is virtually impossible to find literature on the Pacific and women that does not reference their vulnerability. The use of such an emotive term raises questions. Who is naming and claiming vulnerability? What impact does such language have on those that are portrayed in this way? And, what are the long-term consequences of such terminology being used? Interesting questions are also raised regarding discursive similarities between presentations of vulnerable women and vulnerable islands. This thesis addresses these questions by analysing international literature on climate change and forced migration—especially that produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—between 1990 and 2007, and contrasting this with close analysis of public discourse from two vocal I-Kiribati advocates, Pelenise Alofa and Maria Tiimon, from 2009 to 2011. Conclusions are drawn from this analysis regarding the power relationships embedded in discourse, and the possible ramifications of language use for the construction of policy.

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