Empirical models for forecasting changes in the phenology of ice cover for Canadian lakes

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (7) ◽  
pp. 982-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.J. Shuter ◽  
C.K. Minns ◽  
S.R. Fung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Spring Break ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Break Up ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Phenology Model ◽  
Ice Phenology

In situ and remote-sensed data on freeze-up and break-up dates for lakes spread over much of Canada were used to develop and validate simple regression models linking lake ice phenology to climatic conditions and lake morphometry. The primary variables affecting fall freeze-up dates were the fall date when 30-day smoothed air temperatures reached 0 °C and lake mean depth; the primary variables affecting spring break-up date were the spring date when 30-day smoothed air temperatures reached 0 °C, solar elevation on that date, and the number of days over winter when 30-day smoothed air temperatures were <0 °C. These models were used to project potential impacts of climate change on ice phenology across Canada; by 2055 (under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 emissions scenario), freeze-up dates were projected to be an average of 10 days later. Break-up dates were projected to be from 0 to 16 days earlier, with greater changes occurring at higher latitudes. These projections were similar to those independently derived using a mechanistic ice phenology model.

Systematic exploration of scenario spaces

foresight ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Carlsen ◽  
E. Anders Eriksson ◽  
Karl Henrik Dreborg ◽  
Bengt Johansson ◽  
Örjan Bodin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Generating Sets ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Systematic Exploration ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Business As Usual

Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.

scholarly journals Agroclimatic conditions of the Osijek area during referent (1961–1990) and recent (1991–2018) climate periods

2021 ◽  
Vol 54/55 (54/55) ◽  
pp. 55-64
Author(s):  
Darija Bilandžija ◽  
Silvija Martinčić
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Hydrothermal Condition ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Climatic Elements

One highly important segment of agricultural production is the agroecological condition of a given area, including climatic conditions, which have been changing recently. Croatia belongs to a climate zone also known as a climate hot spot, characterised by a pronounced sensitivity to climate change. In order to determine if the climate has changed in the Osijek area, climatic elements and agroclimatic indicators were analysed for a referent period (1961∑1990) and a recent period (1991∑2018). The analysis shows that the climate has changed in the recent period as compared to the referent period. The identified climate changes manifest in higher mean air temperatures, higher precipitation amount, increased actual evapotranspiration and prolonged vegetation periods in the recent period. Furthermore, hydrothermal condition analysis shows that the ten warmest years and vegetation periods in the studied 58-year period were within the past 26 years. Due to the identified climate change and the assumption that the climate will continue to change in the future, adaptation and mitigation measures will have to be applied in agricultural production. For a more reliable assessment of agroclimatic conditions at certain area, it is recommended to analyse other climatic elements as well, such as the number of consecutive dry or rainy days above the critical precipitation threshold, wind, solar radiation, insolation, etc.

scholarly journals Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

2008 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Ghini ◽  
Emília Hamada ◽  
Mário José Pedro Júnior ◽  
José Antonio Marengo ◽  
Renata Ribeiro do Valle Gonçalves
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Leaf Miner ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Distribution Maps ◽  
Distribution Centre ◽  
Disease Epidemics

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

Climate Change and Freshwater Availability: Present and Future Challenges

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Izzadin Ali ◽  
Dasimah Omar ◽  
Siti Mazwin Kamaruddin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The People ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Vital Resource ◽  
Freshwater Availability

The interrelationship between freshwater availability with the growing population and climate change estimates is complex. This article investigates climate change role in freshwater resources availability. This is critical issue as freshwater is vital resource for life, and it is in stake as it is depleted worldwide. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) was discussed. This paper elucidates the climate model downscaling methods used by scholars for future projections. The applications of modelling could provide a holistic approach based on historical data to predict the effect of climate change on the availability of freshwater. However, the people variability uncertainties dominate assessments of freshwater stress, whilst climate change projections uncertainties are more hypothesized to play a smaller role than people. 

scholarly journals Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Jacinto ◽  
M. J. Cruz ◽  
F. D. Santos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Technological Developments ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

Abstract. The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2) adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1) characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2) identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3) identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4) production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes). The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16%) in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%). All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

scholarly journals Multi-Objective Optimization of Drainage Networks for Flood Control in Urban Area Due to Climate Change

Proceedings ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Leonardo Bayas-Jiménez ◽  
Pedro L. Iglesias-Rey ◽  
F. Javier Martínez-Solano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coming Out ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Drainage Network ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Drainage Networks

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations mentions that extreme rainfalls might increase their intensity and frequency in most mid-latitude locations and tropical regions by the end of this century, as a consequence of the rise of the average global surface temperature. Human action has given way to global warming which manifests with an increase in extreme rainfall. If these climatic conditions are added to the waterproofing that cities have been experiencing as a result of urban development, a scenario of growing concern for the managers of drainage systems is generated. The objective of drainage networks is preventing the accumulation of rainwater on the surface. Under the new conditions of climate change, these need to be modified and adapted to provide cities with the security they demand. The following article describes a method for flood control by using a rehabilitation model that connects the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) 5 model with a genetic algorithm to find the best solutions to the flood problem. The final analysis is performed using the Pareto efficiency criteria. The innovation of this method is the inclusion of a local head loss in the drainage network, allowing the upstream flow to be retained by decreasing the downstream concentration time. These elements called hydraulic controls improve system performance and are installed in the initial part of some pipes coming out of storm tanks. As a case study, the developed method has been applied in a section of the drainage network of the city of Bogotá.

Observed trends in the river ice regimes of northwest Canada

2010 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 462-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Richard Janowicz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Aquatic Ecosystems ◽  
Transportation Networks ◽  
Chemical Processes ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Break Up ◽  
First Time ◽  
Annual Summer

Yukon air temperature trends have been observed to change over the last several decades with an increase in annual, summer and winter air temperatures, while changes in precipitation have not been consistent. An assessment of freeze-up and break-up dates indicates that the ice cover season is becoming shorter with delays in freeze-up and advances in break-up timing. Mid-winter break-up events and associated flooding have been observed for the first time. Break-up water level trends suggest that break-up severity is increasing. These changes cannot be definitely attributed to climate change as there is some evidence suggesting that teleconnections may be a factor. The observed changes have significant implications pertaining to public safety, and economic impacts on property and infrastructure, transportation networks and hydroelectric operations. Ice jams and associated backwater and surges also affect aquatic ecosystems through impacts on biological and chemical processes.

SRES, IPCC and the Treatment of Economic Issues: What Has Emerged?

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 549-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Henderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United Nations Environment Programme ◽  
Economic Aspects ◽  
Select Committee ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
House Of Lords ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Expert Meeting ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

This article reviews and extends the continuing debate on the treatment of economic issues by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Following an introduction, it has four main parts. Section 2, with its accompanying Annex 1, deals with one of the leading technical issues in the debate. It argues that, contrary to IPCC-related sources and some other analysts, exchange rates should not enter into measures or projections of output (real GDP). Section 3, in conjunction with Annexes 2 and 3, reviews again the projections of GDP and emissions that emerge from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). It brings out in particular some confusions that have entered into the IPCC process and the arguments deployed in its defence. Section 4 lists the main weaknesses of the SRES, which are not a matter of the specific projections that it makes. These weaknesses cast doubt on the Panel's decision to use the SRES as a point of departure for its Fourth Assessment Report which is now in course of preparation. Section 5 considers the IPCC process as a whole. Attention is drawn again to the mishandling of economic evidence in IPCC documents and by the United Nations Environment Programme which is one of the IPCC's two parent agencies. New evidence of the professionally unrepresentative status of the IPCC milieu is cited from two sources: The Expert Meeting on Emissions Scenarios convened by the IPCC in January 2005; and the proceedings of the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs which has just reviewed ‘economic aspects of climate change’. The IPCC's dismissive response to independent critics, as illustrated in Annex 3, means that its handling of economic issues can be improved only if its member governments take action. Effective action will require in particular the involvement of the central economic departments of state: these will have to show greater awareness of what is at stake than Her Majesty's Treasury in its evidence to the Select Committee. More broadly, and going beyond economic aspects, it is high time to put in question the IPCC's status as a monopoly provider of information to governments on issues relating to climate change.

scholarly journals Implicações das Mudanças do Clima no Zoneamento Agroclimático da Cana-de-açúcar no Estado do Tocantins, Considerando o Modelo GFDL (Implications of Climatic Changes on Agroclimatic Sugarcane Zoning for Tocantins State, Considering the GFDL Model)

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1730
Author(s):  
Erich Collicchio ◽  
Humberto Rocha ◽  
Daniel De Castro Victória ◽  
Maria Victória Ramos Ballester ◽  
André Marcondes Andrade Toledo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Gfdl Model ◽  
Good Productivity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sugarcane Industry

Tem havido a expansão do complexo sucroalcooleiro para as regiões Centro-Norte do país, devido ao aumento da demanda pelo etanol, tornando relevante a elaboração do zoneamento agroclimático para a cultura da cana-de-açúcar para essas regiões, notadamente para o estado do Tocantins. As informações climáticas e edáficas favorecem a determinação de áreas mais aptas ao cultivo e à mecanização. Por outro lado poderá ocorrer a elevação do risco climático nas regiões produtoras devido à possível influência das mudanças do clima. O presente estudo visou simular o impacto das mudanças do clima sobre o zoneamento agroclimático para a cana-de-açúcar no Tocantins, considerando os dados do modelo GFDL e cenários de emissão B1 e A1B, para o período de 2021 a 2050. Os resultados mostraram que tanto para as condições climáticas atuais, quanto para projeção do modelo, não há restrição térmica para o desenvolvimento da cultura, e que para obter boa produtividade no Estado será necessário, de forma geral, a utilização de irrigação nos períodos de deficiência hídrica. Constatou-se que, existe potencial para a produção, apesar da predominância da classe de aptidão “restrita”, e que as regiões potenciais com condições agroclimáticas favoráveis, estão localizadas no sul, sudeste e centro do Estado. As simulações dos cenários de emissões indicam fortes restrições hídricas para o Tocantins, com grande redução de áreas consideradas “aptas” e “marginais”, e aumento das áreas “restritas” ao cultivo da cana-de-açúcar. A B S T R A C T There has been an expansion trend of ethanol demand, the tendency to expansion of the complex sugarcane industry in the Center-North region requires an elaboration of agroclimatic zoning for sugarcane culture, especially in Tocantins State. The climatic and edaphic informations favor the determination of most suitable areas for cultivation and mechanization. On the other hands, it may occur an elevation of the climatic risk in the producing regions due to the possible influence of climate change. This study aimed to simulate the impact of climate change on agroclimatic zoning for sugarcane in Tocantins, considering the data generated by GFDL model and B1 and A1B emission scenarios for the period between 2021and 2050. Results showed that for both the current climatic conditions and the projected models there is no thermal restrictions for cane development and to obtain good productivity it will be necessary to irrigate the crops during the drought periods. It was found that there is potential for the production , despite the predominance of "; restricted "; aptitude class, and that the potential regions with favorable agroclimatic conditions, are located in the south, southeast and center of the State. Simulations of emissions scenarios indicate strong water restrictions to Tocantins, with great reduction in areas considered ";apt"; and ";marginal";, and increase of the ";restricted"; areas for the sugarcane cultivation. Keywords: Agroenergy; ethanol; water balance; agroclimatic aptitude; global warming

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