scholarly journals Most plausible 2005-2040 emissions scenarios project less than 2.5 degrees C of warming by 2100

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Pielke ◽  
Matthew G. Burgess ◽  
Justin Ritchie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Research Policy ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Policy And Planning

Emissions scenarios are central to climate change research, policy, and planning. Recent studies question plausibility of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) high-emissions scenarios, while others cast doubt on the achievability of a 1.5-degrees-C-by-2100 target. Here, we identify the subsets of scenarios of the IPCC 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports that project 2005-2040 fossil-fuel CO2 emissions growth rates most consistently with observations from 2005-2020 and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections to 2040. 71% of these scenarios project between 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 degrees C. Our results suggest the world may be better positioned with respect to CO2 emissions than often assumed, but is off track from 1.5 degrees C targets.

Systematic exploration of scenario spaces

foresight ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Carlsen ◽  
E. Anders Eriksson ◽  
Karl Henrik Dreborg ◽  
Bengt Johansson ◽  
Örjan Bodin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Generating Sets ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Systematic Exploration ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Business As Usual

Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.

SRES, IPCC and the Treatment of Economic Issues: What Has Emerged?

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 549-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Henderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United Nations Environment Programme ◽  
Economic Aspects ◽  
Select Committee ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
House Of Lords ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Expert Meeting ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

This article reviews and extends the continuing debate on the treatment of economic issues by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Following an introduction, it has four main parts. Section 2, with its accompanying Annex 1, deals with one of the leading technical issues in the debate. It argues that, contrary to IPCC-related sources and some other analysts, exchange rates should not enter into measures or projections of output (real GDP). Section 3, in conjunction with Annexes 2 and 3, reviews again the projections of GDP and emissions that emerge from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). It brings out in particular some confusions that have entered into the IPCC process and the arguments deployed in its defence. Section 4 lists the main weaknesses of the SRES, which are not a matter of the specific projections that it makes. These weaknesses cast doubt on the Panel's decision to use the SRES as a point of departure for its Fourth Assessment Report which is now in course of preparation. Section 5 considers the IPCC process as a whole. Attention is drawn again to the mishandling of economic evidence in IPCC documents and by the United Nations Environment Programme which is one of the IPCC's two parent agencies. New evidence of the professionally unrepresentative status of the IPCC milieu is cited from two sources: The Expert Meeting on Emissions Scenarios convened by the IPCC in January 2005; and the proceedings of the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs which has just reviewed ‘economic aspects of climate change’. The IPCC's dismissive response to independent critics, as illustrated in Annex 3, means that its handling of economic issues can be improved only if its member governments take action. Effective action will require in particular the involvement of the central economic departments of state: these will have to show greater awareness of what is at stake than Her Majesty's Treasury in its evidence to the Select Committee. More broadly, and going beyond economic aspects, it is high time to put in question the IPCC's status as a monopoly provider of information to governments on issues relating to climate change.

scholarly journals Assessment of Renewable Energy Deployment Roadmaps

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 2875 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Mauleón
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Cost Of Energy ◽  
Ipcc Report

This research implements a methodology to the joint assessment of the photovoltaic and onshore wind investment roadmaps put forward by the main institutions in the field, International Renewable Energy Association (Irena) and the International Energy Agency, to achieve a low carbon emissions economy with near zero net greenhouse gases emissions. The two energies taken together account for over 80% of the renewable energy deployments envisaged by both roadmaps. The assessment is conducted according to economic criteria (the levelized cost of energy, capital requirements and financial risks), and environmental (carbon avoided, its value, and its cost). Given the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on the urgency to tackle climate change, accelerated deployments of the roadmaps are assessed as well. Overall, it is found that the roadmaps are financially sound, even under an accelerated scenario. Possible limits to the deployment of renewable energies roadmaps derived from the availability of raw materials and other constraints are also discussed, showing likely constraints for lithium batteries but not for photovoltaic and wind energies.

scholarly journals Sectoral Energy-CO2 Emissions Using an Environmental Input-Output Framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1066-1075 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mukaramah Harun ◽  
Siti Aznor Ahmad ◽  
Noorasiah Sulaiman ◽  
Djihad Tria
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Energy Industry ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Input Output ◽  
British Petroleum ◽  
Energy Agency

Global climate change is an alarming problem nowadays. Weather temperatures have been uncertain because of what many scientists claim is the effect of greenhouse gases, contributed mainly by the energy industry. In Malaysia, the energy industry provides a significant contribution to it economy making up about 20 percent of the GDP. Malaysia is the third largest natural gas exporter in the Asia-Pacific region in 2011 and eleventh in the world (British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy, 2014). Malaysia's CO2 emission recorded at 185 million tonnes in 2010 (International Energy Agency, 2012). Mohd Safaai et al. (2011) projected that without any mitigation measures 285.73 million tonnes of CO2 will be released in 2020. In the Copenhagen forum 2009, Malaysia has pledged to reduce 40% of carbon emissions by 2020 compared to the 2005 levels. Motivated by the government efforts, this study will construct environmentally extended input-output framework for Malaysia to obtain the energy-related CO2 emission intensities by sectors. The study is responded to the inadequate of reliable data on Malaysia’s sectoral CO2 emissions and to the growing awareness of the effectiveness of Malaysia climate change policies. This study expanding the current understanding of interactions among economic activities, energy intensities, and CO2 emissions. Results of this study found that Transportation recorded the second highest contributor to CO2 emission, and these findings were different to many other existing studies that found transportation sector as a main contributor to CO2 emission. In addition, results suggest that it is necessary to control environmental problems and encourage the energy use efficiency in the production process, particularly in the Building and construction sector, Transportation, Electricity, gas and water and Agriculture sector in Malaysia The findings will help the policy-makers particularly in Malaysia to develop a strategic plan and tools to manage CO2 emission with respect to climate change in these four sectors.

scholarly journals An Examination on Biomass Power as Primary Energy and Generation of Electricity using Biomass

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1S) ◽  
pp. 445-448
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Power Source ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Power Sources ◽  
Sustainable Power

With genuine concern all inclusive and in India on the utilization of petroleum products, it is vital for India to begin utilizing sustainable power sources. India is the seventh biggest nation on the planet traversing 328 million hectares and abundantly presented with sustainable wellsprings of vitality. Among the sustainable power sources, biomass assumes an indispensable part particularly in country regions, as it constitutes the real vitality source to lion's share of family units in India. Biomass vitality is the usage of natural issue introduce and can be used for different applications. As indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, biomass represented 10.2% of the world's aggregate yield of primary energy. The International Energy Agency extends that it will be the quickest developing sustainable power source amongst now and 2030, giving as much as 30% of the power devoured worldwide by 2050. In India, woodland and agricultural biomass is the most as often as possible utilized organic matter because of its prepared accessibility and the development of the producing technique included. India delivers around 450-500 million tons of biomass for each year. Biomass gives 32% of all the essential vitality use in the nation at display.

scholarly journals Desacoplamento entre as Emissões de CO2 e o PIB

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-53
Author(s):  
Yves Rocha De Salles Lima ◽  
Tatiane Stellet Machado ◽  
Joao Jose de Assis Rangel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
The Us ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The One

The objetive of this work is to analyze the variation of CO2 emissions and GDP per capita throughout the years and identify the possible interaction between them. For this purpose, data from the International Energy Agency was collected on two countries, Brazil and the one with the highest GDP worldwide, the United States. Thus, the results showed that CO2 emissions have been following the country’s economic growth for many years. However, these two indicators have started to decouple in the US in 2007 while in Brazil the same happened in 2011. Furthermore, projections for CO2 emissions are made until 2040, considering 6 probable scenarios. These projections showed that even if the oil price decreases, the emissions will not be significantly affected as long as the economic growth does not decelerate.

International Law and the Renewable Energy Sector

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Parker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Energy Regulation ◽  
Renewable Energy Policy ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Climate Change Negotiations ◽  
Energy Charter Treaty ◽  
Development And Utilization ◽  
International Climate

This chapter examines key legal instruments and mechanisms relevant to international renewable energy regulation. These play an important role in governing unified action and enhancing collaboration and information-sharing on effective policies and investment frameworks aimed at reducing barriers and risks to investments in renewable energy. The mechanisms that are analysed are the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Statute, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol and related international climate change negotiations and declarations, the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), and various sector-specific treaties. The chapter also turns its attention to the primary international organizations that influence present and future directions in international renewable energy policy, such as the Nairobi Programme of Action for the Development and Utilization of New and Renewable Sources of Energy, International Energy Agency, Development Banks, and the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership.

Empirical models for forecasting changes in the phenology of ice cover for Canadian lakes

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (7) ◽  
pp. 982-991 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.J. Shuter ◽  
C.K. Minns ◽  
S.R. Fung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Spring Break ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Break Up ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Phenology Model ◽  
Ice Phenology

In situ and remote-sensed data on freeze-up and break-up dates for lakes spread over much of Canada were used to develop and validate simple regression models linking lake ice phenology to climatic conditions and lake morphometry. The primary variables affecting fall freeze-up dates were the fall date when 30-day smoothed air temperatures reached 0 °C and lake mean depth; the primary variables affecting spring break-up date were the spring date when 30-day smoothed air temperatures reached 0 °C, solar elevation on that date, and the number of days over winter when 30-day smoothed air temperatures were <0 °C. These models were used to project potential impacts of climate change on ice phenology across Canada; by 2055 (under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 emissions scenario), freeze-up dates were projected to be an average of 10 days later. Break-up dates were projected to be from 0 to 16 days earlier, with greater changes occurring at higher latitudes. These projections were similar to those independently derived using a mechanistic ice phenology model.

scholarly journals Análise da expansão da geração elétrica fotovoltaica e emissões de dióxido de carbono

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-25
Author(s):  
Cássio Rangel Paulista ◽  
Tatiane Stellet Machado ◽  
Joao Jose de Assis Rangel
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
International Energy Agency ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Energy Agency ◽  
Photovoltaic Generation ◽  
Renewable Energy Technologies ◽  
Energy Technologies ◽  
Levels Of Use ◽  
Kaya Identity

This paper aims to analyze the photovoltaic electricity energy expansion and recent data about the behavior of the CO2 emissions in Brazil and other selected countries. Data were collected from different bases as International Energy Agency (Agência Internacional de Energia), Ministry of Energy and Mines (Ministério de Minas e Energia), Research Electric Company as well as other papers in the field. Kaya Identity was applied as basis in order to evaluate the CO2 emissions. As a result, it could be seen a clear domain of Germany and Italy in the photovoltaic generation sector, with high investments in the development and dissemination of that technology. Brazil presented an energetic matrix of low carbon but with a tendency to increase emissions per capita throughout the years. The effect of decoupling between the greenhouse gas emissions and the large-scale economic development was checked. It was realized that that phenomenon tends to intensify it since renewable energy technologies get higher levels of use.

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