scholarly journals Ambiguity aversion, modern Bayesianism and small worlds

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Nikitas Pittis ◽  
Phoebe Koundouri ◽  
Panagiotis Samartzis ◽  
Nikolaos Englezos ◽  
Andreas Papandreou
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Dissonance ◽  
Ambiguity Aversion ◽  
Small World ◽  
Central Question ◽  
Small Worlds ◽  
Psychological Detachment ◽  
Probabilistic Beliefs ◽  
Objective Chance ◽  
Old Evidence ◽  
Problem Of Old Evidence

The central question of this paper is whether a rational agent under uncertainty can exhibit ambiguity aversion (AA). The answer to this question depends on the way the agent forms her probabilistic beliefs: classical Bayesianism (CB) vs modern Bayesianism (MB). We revisit Schmeidler's coin-based example and show that a rational MB agent operating in the context of a "small world", cannot exhibit AA. Hence we argue that the motivation of AA based on Schmeidler's coin-based and Ellsberg's classic urn-based examples, is poor, since they correspond to cases of "small worlds". We also argue that MB, not only avoids AA, but also proves to be normatively superior to CB because an MB agent (i) avoids logical inconsistencies akin to the relation between her subjective probability and objective chance, (ii) resolves the problem of "old evidence" and (iii) allows psychological detachment from actual evidence, hence avoiding the problem of "cognitive dissonance". As far as AA is concerned, we claim that it may be thought of as a (potential) property of large worlds, because in such worlds MB is likely to be infeasible.

scholarly journals BIG AND SMALL WORLDS OF CHILDREN CHARACTERS IN ‘A LITTLE PRINCESS’ BY F. H. BURNETT

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 70-78
Author(s):  
Varvara A. Byachkova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Charles Dickens ◽  
Fairy Tale ◽  
Literary Tradition ◽  
Small World ◽  
Protective Mechanism ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Main Character ◽  
Small Worlds ◽  
The World ◽  
Space Organization

The article raises the topic of space organization in writings by Frances Hodgson Burnett. The object of analysis is the novel A Little Princess. The novel, addressed primarily to children and teenagers, has many similarities with David Copperfield and the works of Charles Dickens in general. The writer largely follows the literary tradition created by Dickens. The space of the main character is divided into three levels: the Big world (states and borders), the Small world (home, school, city) and the World of imagination. The first two worlds give the reader a realistic picture of Edwardian England, the colonial Empire, through the eyes of a child reveal the themes of unprotected childhood, which the writer develops following the literary tradition of the 19th century. The Big and Small worlds also perform an educational function, being a source of experience and impressions for the main character. In the novel, the aesthetic of realism is combined with folklore and fairy-tale elements: the heroine does not completely transform the surrounding space, but she manages to change it partially and also to preserve her own personality and dignity while experiencing the Dickensian drama of child disenfranchisement, despair and loneliness. The World of imagination allows the reader to understand in full the character of Sarah Crewe, demonstrates the dynamics of her growing up, while for herself it is a powerful protective mechanism that enables her to pass all the tests of life and again become a happy child who can continue to grow up and develop.

scholarly journals The Small World Network of College Classes: Implications for Epidemic Spread on a University Campus

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim A Weeden ◽  
Benjamin Cornwell
Keyword(s):  
Liberal Arts ◽  
Small World ◽  
University Campus ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Small Worlds ◽  
American University ◽  
Gateway Courses ◽  
Path Lengths ◽  
College Classes ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

To slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, many universities shifted to online instruction and now face the question of whether and how to resume in-person instruction. This article uses transcript data from a medium-sized American university to describe three enrollment networks that connect students through classes, and in the process create social conditions for the spread of infectious disease: an university-wide network, an undergraduate-only network, and a liberal arts college network. All three networks are “small worlds” characterized by high clustering, short average path lengths, and multiple independent paths connecting students. Students from different majors cluster together, but gateway courses and distributional requirements create cross-major integration. Connectivity declines when large courses of 100 students or more are removed from the network, as might be the case if some courses are taught online, but moderately sized courses must also be removed before less than half of student-pairs are connected in three steps and less than two-thirds in four steps. In all simulations, most students are connected through multiple independent paths. Hybrid models of instruction can reduce but not eliminate the potential for epidemic spread through the small worlds of course enrollments.

What led Thai-Buddhist background-believers to become Christian? A grounded-theory study

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 330-343
Author(s):  
Kelly Michael Hilderbrand
Keyword(s):  
Grounded Theory ◽  
Cognitive Dissonance ◽  
Central Question ◽  
Significant Component ◽  
Christian Conversion ◽  
Grounded Theory Study ◽  
Conscious Decision ◽  
Thai People

The central question of this grounded-theory study was what do Thai-Buddhist background-believers perceive as factors or influences that led them to become Christian? Other studies have been done to identify factors or reasons Thai people become Christian. Still, few qualitative or mixed studies have been done on this subject. This study identified three factors that Thai-Buddhist background-believers expressed as influences or factors in their Christian conversion: feeling dissatisfaction, encountering cognitive dissonance between Buddhist and Christian worldviews, and supernatural encounters with God. The significant component in the majority of accounts was a supernatural encounter that influenced the convert’s decision to become a Christian. Furthermore, in every situation, the participant made a conscious decision to seek God or to find more information about God.

A New Garber-Style Solution to the Problem of Old Evidence

2015 ◽  
Vol 82 (4) ◽  
pp. 712-717 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Hartmann ◽  
Branden Fitelson
Keyword(s):  
Old Evidence ◽  
Problem Of Old Evidence

How to Quantify 'Small-World Networks'?

Fractals ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 06 (04) ◽  
pp. 301-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanspeter Herzel
Keyword(s):  
Small World ◽  
Small World Network ◽  
Small Worlds ◽  
Small World Networks ◽  
Complete Regularity ◽  
Local Clustering ◽  
Regular Network ◽  
Analytical Expressions ◽  
Global Connection

Recently Watts and Strogatz emphasized the widespread relevance of 'small worlds' and studied numerically networks between complete regularity and complete randomness. In this letter, I derive simple analytical expressions which can reproduce the empirical observations. It is shown how a few random connections can turn a regular network into a 'small-world network' with a short global connection but persisting local clustering.

CONTAGION AND THE SPEED OF ADJUSTMENT IN SMALL WORLDS

2007 ◽  
Vol 09 (04) ◽  
pp. 689-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
EDWARD J. CARTWRIGHT
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Process ◽  
Random Network ◽  
Small World ◽  
Coordination Game ◽  
Small Worlds ◽  
Small World Networks ◽  
Regular Lattice ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Equilibrium Shift

We model a simple dynamic process in which myopic agents are matched amongst each other to play a coordination game. The network of player interaction is varied between a regular lattice and a random network allowing us to model contagion in small world networks. Weighting times for an equilibrium shift from the risk dominated to risk dominant equilibrium are shown to be smallest in small world networks.

Subjectivism

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyle Zynda
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Dutch Book ◽  
Scientific Theories ◽  
Confirmation Theory ◽  
Representation Theorems ◽  
Preference Theory ◽  
Betting Behavior ◽  
Old Evidence ◽  
Problem Of Old Evidence

This essay discusses subjective probability—its foundations, justification, and relation to other subjects, such as decision theory and confirmation theory. Various forms of subjectivism (the belief in subjective probability) are described, and distinguished from non-subjectivist approaches. Two broad approaches to justifying the laws of probability on subjectivist grounds are then discussed: (a) pragmatic approaches, based on betting behavior, with associated Dutch book arguments, or (more broadly) pragmatic approaches based on decision and preference theory, with its representation theorems; and (b) non-pragmatic (epistemic) approaches, with arguments based on calibration and gradational accuracy. These various arguments are assessed, and their scope and limitations spelled out in detail. Finally, the relation of subjective probability to the confirmation of scientific theories is discussed, focusing on the problem of old evidence, and its various proposed solutions.

Information-rich, but time-poor

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (2) ◽  
pp. 409-423
Author(s):  
Åse Garten Galtrud ◽  
Katriina Byström
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Analysis ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Small World ◽  
Small Worlds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Societal Issues ◽  
Members Of Parliament ◽  
Information Practices ◽  
Political Responses ◽  
Flow Of Information

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse how elite politicians in opposition in the Norwegian parliament use information when responding to government propositions and investigate if Chatman’s small world conception can explain the socially and economically highly privileged groups’ approach to information. Design/methodology/approach The qualitative analysis of the data consisting of eight interviews with seven members of parliament (MPs) and one political advisor is based on a selective coding grounded to Chatman’s six propositions on life in the round. Findings The overall findings indicate that elite politicians’ information practices concentrate in mastering the flow of information and admitting attention selectively, but on broad topics. Whereas MPs information practices within an intentional approach (i.e. to be used in political responses and debates) aligned with the small world idea, the nebulous approach (i.e. keeping updated on societal issues) breaks the boundaries of their “small worlds”. Originality/value The study provides a glimpse into information practises of a little studied group, elite politicians. Moreover, it applies Chatman’s conception of small world in a novel manner.

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