scholarly journals The contribution of pre-symptomatic infection to the transmission dynamics of COVID-2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Sebastian Funk ◽  
Stefan Flasche ◽  

Background: Pre-symptomatic transmission can be a key determinant of the effectiveness of containment and mitigation strategies for infectious diseases, particularly if interventions rely on syndromic case finding. For COVID-19, infections in the absence of apparent symptoms have been reported frequently alongside circumstantial evidence for asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmission. We estimated the potential contribution of pre-symptomatic cases to COVID-19 transmission. Methods: Using the probability for symptom onset on a given day inferred from the incubation period, we attributed the serial interval reported from Shenzen, China, into likely pre-symptomatic and symptomatic transmission. We used the serial interval derived for cases isolated more than 6 days after symptom onset as the no active case finding scenario and the unrestricted serial interval as the active case finding scenario. We reported the estimate assuming no correlation between the incubation period and the serial interval alongside a range indicating alternative assumptions of positive and negative correlation. Results: We estimated that 23% (range accounting for correlation: 12 – 28%) of transmissions in Shenzen may have originated from pre-symptomatic infections. Through accelerated case isolation following symptom onset, this percentage increased to 46% (21 – 46%), implying that about 35% of secondary infections among symptomatic cases have been prevented. These results were robust to using reported incubation periods and serial intervals from other settings. Conclusions: Pre-symptomatic transmission may be essential to consider for containment and mitigation strategies for COVID-19.

2021 ◽  
pp. 100776
Author(s):  
Flora Martinez Figueira Moreira ◽  
Renu Verma ◽  
Paulo Cesar Pereira dos Santos ◽  
Alessandra Leite ◽  
Andrea da Silva Santos ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Zisimangelos Solomos ◽  
Chrisoula Botsi ◽  
Theano Georgakopoulou ◽  
Theodore Lytras ◽  
Sotirios Tsiodras ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 82 (5) ◽  
pp. 813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Amir Khan ◽  
Shirin Anil ◽  
Maqsood Ahmed ◽  
Ali Athar ◽  
Abdul Ghafoor ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol Volume 14 ◽  
pp. 3197-3207
Author(s):  
Rapeepong Suphanchaimat ◽  
Natthaprang Nittayasoot ◽  
Panithee Thammawijaya ◽  
Pard Teekasap ◽  
Kumnuan Ungchusak

Author(s):  
Lukman Fauzi ◽  
R.R. Sri Ratna Rahayu ◽  
Lindra Anggorowati ◽  
Hendri Hariyanto ◽  
Trinita Septi Mentari ◽  
...  

Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a non-communicable disease that contributes to the cause of death. Based on the analysis of the situation in Kawengen Village, Semarang Regency, there were several problems related to the incidence of DM, including the Non-Communicable Disease Integrated Guidance Post Program (Posbindu PTM), which was not running optimally. Based on these problems, it is necessary to form a movement called the Anti-Diabetes Mellitus Community Alert Movement (SIMANIS). Active case finding and detection of pre-DM cases aim to capture people who already have pre-DM symptoms, but they do not know. Furthermore, if caught, they can be followed up so that they are willing to go to the health service unit before complications occur. The implementation of this community service activity is carried out in four stages, namely the formation of SIMANIS cadres, education on prevention and control of DM to SIMANIS cadres and the community, ToT on how to fill in and use the SIDIA Card (pre-diabetes screening) to SIMANIS cadres, and use of the SIDIA Card for early detection active case finding pre-DM. There was an increase in the pre-post education knowledge score from 7.59 + 1.5 to 8.93 + 0.9 and an increase in the pre-post education attitude score from 7.96 + 1.22 to 9.07 + 0.78. SIMANIS through the use of the SIDIA Card can be used to increase public awareness in prevention, early detection, and case finding of DM.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0252570
Author(s):  
Kiran Raj Pandey ◽  
Anup Subedee ◽  
Bishesh Khanal ◽  
Bhagawan Koirala

Introduction Many countries with weaker health systems are struggling to put together a coherent strategy against the COVID-19 epidemic. We explored COVID-19 control strategies that could offer the greatest benefit in resource limited settings. Methods Using an age-structured SEIR model, we explored the effects of COVID-19 control interventions–a lockdown, physical distancing measures, and active case finding (testing and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine)–implemented individually and in combination to control a hypothetical COVID-19 epidemic in Kathmandu (population 2.6 million), Nepal. Results A month-long lockdown will delay peak demand for hospital beds by 36 days, as compared to a base scenario of no intervention (peak demand at 108 days (IQR 97-119); a 2 month long lockdown will delay it by 74 days, without any difference in annual mortality, or healthcare demand volume. Year-long physical distancing measures will reduce peak demand to 36% (IQR 23%-46%) and annual morality to 67% (IQR 48%-77%) of base scenario. Following a month long lockdown with ongoing physical distancing measures and an active case finding intervention that detects 5% of the daily infection burden could reduce projected morality and peak demand by more than 99%. Conclusion Limited resource settings are best served by a combination of early and aggressive case finding with ongoing physical distancing measures to control the COVID-19 epidemic. A lockdown may be helpful until combination interventions can be put in place but is unlikely to reduce annual mortality or healthcare demand.


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