The Use of Econometric Analysis in Forecasting Macroeconomic Processes

2021 ◽  
pp. 28-33
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Kalyanov ◽  
Andrey Shishkin
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Multiple Regression Equation ◽  
Linear Multiple Regression ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Primary Impact ◽  
Selection Of

The article discusses the issues related to the influence of various price categories of goods on the level of inflation. The possibility of using econometric analysis for predictive purposes is considered. An econometric model of multiple regression of the influence of consumer prices on the level of inflation is formed. A linear multiple regression equation is constructed. The selection of factors for the construction of an econometric model is made. The main groups of goods are identified, the prices of which form the level of inflation and can have a primary impact. The viability of the model and the possibility of forecasting macroeconomic indicators based on econometric analysis are proved.

An econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1133-1153
Author(s):  
A.T. Kozinova
Keyword(s):  
Household Income ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Retail Trade ◽  
Economic Instability ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Subject. The article deals with econometric analysis of retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with macroeconomic indicators, like real disposable household income, consumer prices, etc. Objectives. The purpose is to create effective models to analyze the retail turnover in Russia and its relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, taking into account the existence of periods of economic instability. Methods. I apply correlation and regression methods to analyze statistics. To quantify changes in the retail turnover of Russia during the periods of economic instability, I use dummy variables. Results. The Russia’s retail trade turnover index had a reverse and moderate relationship with the consumer price index, direct and strong relationship with the indices of real disposable household income and imports, direct relationship with the manufacturing index. I offer statistically significant regression models of Russia’s retail turnover with the said macroeconomic indicators. Conclusions. The main advantage of models of retail turnover that are built using a large number of observations is a greater number of simultaneously considered factors. The quantitative assessment of retail turnover elasticity by consumer prices confirms the need for inflation targeting by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The higher elasticity of retail turnover in manufacturing as compared with the imports denotes the importance of import substitution policy.

scholarly journals Correlation of 3-Dimensional Shoulder Kinematics to Function in Subjects With Idiopathic Loss of Shoulder Range of Motion

2005 ◽  
Vol 85 (7) ◽  
pp. 636-647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J Rundquist ◽  
Paula M Ludewig
Keyword(s):  
Range Of Motion ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
External Rotation ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Multiple Regression Equation ◽  
3 Dimensional ◽  
Shoulder Range Of Motion ◽  
Shoulder Kinematics ◽  
And Function ◽  
Shoulder Range

AbstractBackground and Purpose. People with idiopathic loss of shoulder range of motion (ROM) have difficulty completing activities of daily living. This investigation was performed to determine the association between active glenohumeral ROM and function and to develop a multiple regression equation to explain variation in function in people with idiopathic loss of shoulder motion. Subjects and Methods. This was a comparative study of 21 subjects (18 female, 3 male), using measurements of shoulder kinematics and administration of the Shoulder Rating Questionnaire (SRQ). Electromagnetic tracking sensors monitored the 3-dimensional position of the scapula and humerus throughout active shoulder motions. Correlations were performed between the active ROMs of interest and various demographic factors and the SRQ. A multiple regression equation was generated. Results. A multiple regression equation including scapular-plane abduction, external rotation at the side, external rotation at 90 degrees of abduction, and weight explained 69% of the variation in the SRQ scores. Discussion and Conclusion. The results suggest that active ROM can be used to predict function in people with idiopathic loss of shoulder ROM.

Analysis of Cloud Seeding Efforts in the Tri-County Area,* Oregon, 1950–54

1957 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 134-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred W. Decker ◽  
Russell L. Lincoln ◽  
John A. Day
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Multiple Regression Equation ◽  
Cloud Seeding ◽  
North Central ◽  
Natural Rainfall ◽  
Cent Level

Using an 11-variable multiple regression equation to compute the “natural” rainfall, it is concluded that commercial cloud seeding during 1950–54 in three north central Oregon counties failed to produce departures in precipitation which are statistically significant at the 5 per cent level of acceptance.

Variation in nutrient content of feedingstuffs rich in protein and reassessment of the chemical method for metabolizable energy estimation for poultry

1976 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. N. Lodhi ◽  
Daulat Singh ◽  
J. S. Ichhponani
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Crude Protein ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Metabolizable Energy ◽  
Multiple Regression Equation ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Ether Extract ◽  
Crude Fibre ◽  
Energy Estimation ◽  
Short Period

SummaryA series of five metabolism trials was made to determine apparent nitrogen digestibility and metabolizable energy (ME) contents of protein rich feedingstuffs. The mean nitrogen digestibilities of fish meal, groundnut, mustard, sesame and cottonseed cakes were 66, 69, 68, 57 and 40%, respectively. Corresponding values for metabolizable energy values were 1820, 2460, 2330, 1870 and 1530 kcal/kg, respectively. The metabolizable energy contents of coconut cake, niger cake and blood meal were 1190, 2360 and 2190 kcal/kg, respectively. The quantity of protein, its digestibility and crude fibre content in the cakes are the prime factors for this trend in MB. Simple and multiple regression equations were derived from biologically assayed metabolizable energy and chemically analysed energy-yielding nutrient contents of the feedingstuffs. The simple regression equation is:ME kcal/kg = 32·95 (% crude protein + % ether extract × 2·25+ % available carbohydrate)–29·20.The multiple regression equation is:ME kcal/kg = 370·29 + (24·47 × % crude protein)+ (65·77 × % ether extract)+ (44·07 × % available carbohydrate)- (8·15 × % crude fibre).The correlation coefficients of simple and multiple regression equations were 0·72 and 0·73, respectively, indicating that there is very little advantage for prediction in using the multiple regression equation. The usefulness of the equation for routine checking of poultry feeds for ME is apparent since the nutrients required to predict metabolizable energy can be analysed within a short period of time.

scholarly journals A Multiple Regression Equation for Prediction of Posthepatectomy Liver Failure

1984 ◽  
Vol 200 (5) ◽  
pp. 658-663 ◽  
Author(s):  
NAOKI YAMANAKA ◽  
EIZO OKAMOTO ◽  
KEIJI KUWATA ◽  
NOBUTAKA TANAKA
Keyword(s):  
Liver Failure ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Multiple Regression Equation ◽  
Posthepatectomy Liver Failure

Evaluation of Guidelines for Safe Exposure to Continuous Noise of Moderate and High Intensity

1977 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 307-321
Author(s):  
Thomas R. Schori
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
High Intensity ◽  
Noise Intensity ◽  
Regression Equation ◽  
Multiple Regression Equation ◽  
Protection Agency ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Continuous Noise

In a 1974 report the Environmental Protection Agency made predictions, based upon extrapolations from the literature, as to what constitutes a 5 dB equal 90th percentile TTS2 curve, i.e., a “safe exposure” curve. However, because of a dearth of data for brief exposures to noise, they were uncertain as to the accuracy of some of their predictions. Therefore, in the present investigation, the TTS2 consequences of brief exposures to noise were systematically evaluated. Specifically, 40 subjects were tested at each of 10 appropriately spaced durations of exposure to noise. The 90th percentile TTS2 at 4000 Hz was determined for each duration of exposure and then a multiple regression equation was fitted to these values. From this equation, a 5 dB equal 90th percentile TTS2 curve was calculated, which represents our predictions as to the trade-offs between noise intensity and duration of exposure necessary to produce 90th percentile TTS2 of 5 dB. A comparison of our predictions to those of the EPA (in the area of uncertainty) suggests that the conservative EPA predictions may be too conservative while the EPA's modified and extended CHABA-criterion predictions (from Nat. Acad. Sci., Nat. Res. Council Committee on Hear., Bioacoustics, Biomechanics) may not be sufficiently conservative. Although our predictions reflect the trends which were actually observed in the present investigation, it would be unreasonable to assume that our predictions are more than “ball park” estimates of reality. They do suggest, though, that in reality a 5 dB equal 90th percentile TTS2 curve would probably be intermediate between the conservative EPA curve and EPA's modified and extended CHABA criterion curves.

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