Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression and Harmony Search Algorithm

This paper investigates the short-term wind power forecasting and demonstrates accurate modeling, which utilizes two representative heuristic algorithms (i.e. wavelet neural network (WNN) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)), and statistical machine learning techniques (i.e. Support Vector Regression (SVR)). The proposed method generates the performances of different approaches for random time series, characterized with high accuracy and high generalization capability. The employed data is obtained through Sampling equipment in Real Wind Power Plants (Power generation equipment is Dongfang Steam Turbine Co., Ltd. weak wind turbine type--FD77 with German REpower company technology). The main innovation of this paper comes from: (a) problem may encounter in the real application is in consideration such as corrupt, missing value and noisy data. (b) Data lag estimation are provided to investigate the data distribution and obtain the best input variables, respectively. (c) Comparison between MLP neural networks, WNN and SVR with optimized kernel parameters based on Grid-search method are provided to demonstrate the best forecasting approaches. The purpose of this paper is to provide a method with reference value for short-term wind power forecasting.

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Support Vector Regression Based on Grid-Search Method for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Journal of Applied Mathematics ◽

10.1155/2014/835791 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-11 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Hong Zhang ◽

Lixing Chen ◽

Yong Qu ◽

Guo Zhao ◽

Zhenwei Guo

Keyword(s):

Support Vector Regression ◽

Wind Power ◽

Real Data ◽

Search Method ◽

Support Vector ◽

Grid Search ◽

Short Term ◽

Wind Power Forecasting ◽

Grid Search Method ◽

Power Forecasting

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-term wind power forecasting. STWPF is a typically complex issue, because it is affected by many factors such as wind speed, wind direction, and humidity. This paper attempts to provide a reference strategy for STWPF and to solve the problems in existence. The two main contributions of this paper are as follows. (1) In data preprocessing, each encountered problem of employed real data such as irrelevant, outliers, missing value, and noisy data has been taken into account, the corresponding reasonable processing has been given, and the input variable selection and order estimation are investigated by Partial least squares technique. (2) STWPF is investigated by multiscale support vector regression (SVR) technique, and the parameters associated with SVR are optimized based on Grid-search method. In order to investigate the performance of proposed strategy, forecasting results comparison between two different forecasting models, multiscale SVR and multilayer perceptron neural network applied for power forecasts, are presented. In addition, the error evaluation demonstrates that the multiscale SVR is a robust, precise, and effective approach.

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A Compound Wind Power Forecasting Strategy Based on Clustering, Two-Stage Decomposition, Parameter Optimization, and Optimal Combination of Multiple Machine Learning Approaches

Energies ◽

10.3390/en12183586 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (18) ◽

pp. 3586 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Sizhou Sun ◽

Jingqi Fu ◽

Ang Li

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

Large Scale ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Search Algorithm ◽

Interpolation Method ◽

Least Square ◽

Support Vector ◽

Two Stage ◽

Wind Power Forecasting ◽

Power Forecasting

Given the large-scale exploitation and utilization of wind power, the problems caused by the high stochastic and random characteristics of wind speed make researchers develop more reliable and precise wind power forecasting (WPF) models. To obtain better predicting accuracy, this study proposes a novel compound WPF strategy by optimal integration of four base forecasting engines. In the forecasting process, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) is firstly employed to identify meaningful information and discard the abnormal wind power data. To eliminate the adverse influence of the missing data on the forecasting accuracy, Lagrange interpolation method is developed to get the corrected values of the missing points. Then, the two-stage decomposition (TSD) method including ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and wavelet transform (WT) is utilized to preprocess the wind power data. In the decomposition process, the empirical wind power data are disassembled into different intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual (Res) by EEMD, and the highest frequent time series IMF1 is further broken into different components by WT. After determination of the input matrix by a partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and normalization into [0, 1], these decomposed components are used as the input variables of all the base forecasting engines, including least square support vector machine (LSSVM), wavelet neural networks (WNN), extreme learning machine (ELM) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), to make the multistep WPF. To avoid local optima and improve the forecasting performance, the parameters in LSSVM, ELM, and WNN are tuned by backtracking search algorithm (BSA). On this basis, BSA algorithm is also employed to optimize the weighted coefficients of the individual forecasting results that produced by the four base forecasting engines to generate an ensemble of the forecasts. In the end, case studies for a certain wind farm in China are carried out to assess the proposed forecasting strategy.

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Short Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Data Regression and Enhanced Support Vector Machine

Energies ◽

10.3390/en13236319 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 13 (23) ◽

pp. 6319

Author(s):

Chia-Sheng Tu ◽

Chih-Ming Hong ◽

Hsi-Shan Huang ◽

Chiung-Hsing Chen

Keyword(s):

Support Vector Machine ◽

Wind Speed ◽

Regression Model ◽

Wind Power ◽

Support Vector ◽

Forecasting Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Wind Power Forecasting ◽

Data Regression ◽

Power Forecasting

This paper presents a short-term wind power forecasting model for the next day based on historical marine weather and corresponding wind power output data. Due the large amount of historical marine weather and wind power data, we divided the data into clusters using the data regression (DR) algorithm to get meaningful training data, so as to reduce the number of modeling data and improve the efficiency of computing. The regression model was constructed based on the principle of the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). We carried out wind speed forecasting for one hour and one day and used the correlation between marine wind speed and the corresponding wind power regression model to realize an indirect wind power forecasting model. Proper parameter settings for LSSVM are important to ensure its efficiency and accuracy. In this paper, we used an enhanced bee swarm optimization (EBSO) to perform the parameter optimization for LSSVM, which not only improved the forecast model availability, but also improved the forecasting accuracy.

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Wind Power Short-Term Forecasting Hybrid Model Based on CEEMD-SE Method

Processes ◽

10.3390/pr7110843 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (11) ◽

pp. 843 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Keke Wang ◽

Dongxiao Niu ◽

Lijie Sun ◽

Hao Zhen ◽

Jian Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

Extreme Learning Machine ◽

Harmony Search ◽

Forecasting Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Forecasting Accuracy ◽

Wind Power Forecasting ◽

Correlation Degree ◽

Learning Machine ◽

Power Forecasting

Accurately predicting wind power is crucial for the large-scale grid-connected of wind power and the increase of wind power absorption proportion. To improve the forecasting accuracy of wind power, a hybrid forecasting model using data preprocessing strategy and improved extreme learning machine with kernel (KELM) is proposed, which mainly includes the following stages. Firstly, the Pearson correlation coefficient is calculated to determine the correlation degree between multiple factors of wind power to reduce data redundancy. Then, the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) method is adopted to decompose the wind power time series to decrease the non-stationarity, the sample entropy (SE) theory is used to classify and reconstruct the subsequences to reduce the complexity of computation. Finally, the KELM optimized by harmony search (HS) algorithm is utilized to forecast each subsequence, and after integration processing, the forecasting results are obtained. The CEEMD-SE-HS-KELM forecasting model constructed in this paper is used in the short-term wind power forecasting of a Chinese wind farm, and the RMSE and MAE are as 2.16 and 0.39 respectively, which is better than EMD-SE-HS-KELM, HS-KELM, KELM and extreme learning machine (ELM) model. According to the experimental results, the hybrid method has higher forecasting accuracy for short-term wind power forecasting.

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