How Do Prior Gains and Losses Affect Subsequent Risk Taking? New Evidence from Individual-Level Horse Race Bets

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (6) ◽  
pp. 2797-2808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niko Suhonen ◽  
Jani Saastamoinen
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jani Saastamoinen ◽  
Niko Suhonen

This paper examines how betting experience is associated with horse race bettors’ sequential risk taking. We use an individual-level data set of 5,217 individual bettors with 167,816 betting-related transactions. Our analyses suggest that inexperienced bettors take on more risk than experienced bettors do after they experience gains. We also find some indication that experienced bettors become more risk averse than inexperienced ones after incurring losses.


1964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerome L. Myers ◽  
Mary M. Suydam ◽  
Blase Gambino
Keyword(s):  

2021 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah E. A. MacGregor ◽  
Aislinn Cottage ◽  
Christos C. Ioannou

Abstract Consistent inter-individual variation in behaviour within a population, widely referred to as personality variation, can be affected by environmental context. Feedbacks between an individual’s behaviour and state can strengthen (positive feedback) or weaken (negative feedback) individual differences when experiences such as predator encounters or winning contests are dependent on behavioural type. We examined the influence of foraging on individual-level consistency in refuge use (a measure of risk-taking, i.e. boldness) in three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus, and particularly whether changes in refuge use depended on boldness measured under control conditions. In the control treatment trials with no food, individuals were repeatable in refuge use across repeated trials, and this behavioural consistency did not differ between the start and end of these trials. In contrast, when food was available, individuals showed a higher degree of consistency in refuge use at the start of the trials versus controls but this consistency significantly reduced by the end of the trials. The effect of the opportunity to forage was dependent on behavioural type, with bolder fish varying more in their refuge use between the start and the end of the feeding trials than shyer fish, and boldness positively predicted the likelihood of feeding at the start but not at the end of the trials. This suggests a state-behaviour feedback, but there was no overall trend in how bolder individuals changed their behaviour. Our study shows that personality variation can be suppressed in foraging contexts and a potential but unpredictable role of feedbacks between state and behaviour. Significance statement In this experimental study, we examined how foraging influences consistency in risk-taking in individual three-spined sticklebacks. We show that bolder individuals become less consistent in their risk-taking behaviour than shyer individuals during foraging. Some bolder individuals reinforce their risk-taking behaviour, suggesting a positive feedback between state and behaviour, while others converge on the behaviour of shyer individuals, suggesting a negative feedback. In support of a role of satiation in driving negative feedback effects, we found that bolder individuals were more likely to feed at the start but not at the end of the trials. Overall, our findings suggest that foraging can influence personality variation in risk-taking behaviour; however, the role of feedbacks may be unpredictable.


2021 ◽  
pp. 073112142199004
Author(s):  
Cary Wu

A large literature has suggested that education leads to higher trust. In this article, I argue that how education and trust are associated at the individual level may depend on the level of risk and uncertainty of each institutional setting. Trust involves not only individuals’ risk-taking propensity and capability but also their perception of how uncertain or risky the situation they are in. I test this micro–macro interactive approach by analyzing data from the World Values Survey, the European Social Survey, and the World Bank. Results show that the education and trust association can change from positive to negative both cross-nationally and within national contexts over time in response to the social and political stability at the macro level. In stable and low-conflict societies, the association between education and trust is highly positive. However, the association becomes negative in transitional societies where social and political risks are widespread. Supporting the risk-taking and risk awareness mechanisms underpinning the interactive process, I show that education has varying impacts on risk-taking propensity and risk awareness across different institutional contexts.


2021 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Denis S. Andreyuk

Genome editing technologies make it important to look for genetic determinants that can influence the structure of society and basic social relations. This paper proposes to look for such determinants in the evolutionarily ancient mechanisms of group interaction, namely in the genes that determine the balance of cooperation and competition. The opposition of these two forces is thought to be the basis of the evolutionary development of intelligence in higher primates and humans. The article provides examples showing that individual characteristics such as extraversion/introversion as measured by the "Big Five" methodology, aggressiveness, which strongly associates with the risk taking, and the level of intelligence, all of these traits a) greatly influence the organization of social processes and b) are largely genetically determined. As a development of this approach of searching for socially significant genetic determinants, it is proposed to model genetic changes in sociality, aggressiveness and intelligence at the individual level, followed by an analysis of the resulting social changes.


2019 ◽  
Vol 88 (3) ◽  
pp. 431-452
Author(s):  
Shotaro Shiba ◽  
Kazumi Shimizu

Abstract Several studies on time preference have found time inconsistency in both gain and loss preferences. However, the relationship between the two within the same person remains unclear; that is, does an individual who demonstrates time inconsistency for gain outcomes do so for losses as well? This paper reports on individuals’ time inconsistency for gains and losses in a laboratory setting. To obtain a precise comparison of individuals’ time inconsistency for gains and losses, we used Rohde’s “DI (decreasing impatience)-index” (Manag Sci 65(4):1700–1716, 2018) and measured the level of time inconsistency, rather than merely identifying whether TI was present. This index represents how strongly a person exhibits present bias, and easily extends to the comparison between gain and loss preferences within the same person. Further, it allows the experiment to test for so-called future bias, which has been a focus area in recent time inconsistency literature. It is elicited through a non-parametric method, which avoids any specification errors in the analysis. Our findings are as follows: first, we found future bias in preferences for not only gains but also losses, and we confirmed that this tendency is consistent with previous findings on preferences for gains. Second, a positive correlation between time inconsistency for gains and losses was found at the individual level. Indeed, we could not find a significant difference between the two in most cases.


2010 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 606-620 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Jane Liu ◽  
Chih-Ling Tsai ◽  
Ming-Chun Wang ◽  
Ning Zhu

2014 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
pp. 511-517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Buttmann ◽  
Ann Nielsen ◽  
Christian Munk ◽  
Kirsten Frederiksen ◽  
Kai–Li Liaw ◽  
...  

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