Does the ageing population correctly predict the need for medical beds?: Part one: fundamental principles

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Rodney P Jones
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Capacity Planning ◽  
Baby Boom ◽  
National Average ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Bed Occupancy ◽  
World War ◽  
Funding Formula ◽  
Hospital Bed ◽  
The World

The World War II baby boom, coupled with increasing life expectancy, will lead to increasing numbers of deaths for the next 40 years. The last year of life represents a large proportion (55%) of lifetime hospital bed occupancy. This is called the nearness to death effect. However, the nearness to death effect has not been factored into NHS capacity planning, which largely relies on age-based forecasting, often called the ageing population. In certain locations, deaths are predicted to rise far more rapidly than the national average of 1% per annual growth. These locations are highly susceptible to capacity pressures emanating from the nearness to death effect, which is not compatible with recent policies that aim to build smaller hospitals. This article is the first of a two-part series discussing these trends in deaths and bed demand, as well as the likely impact on NHS capacity and the implications for the NHS funding formula.

Does the ageing population correctly predict the need for medical beds? Part two: wider implications

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Rodney P Jones
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Baby Boom ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Funding Formula ◽  
World Demand ◽  
Minimum Number ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Bed Planning

The first article in this two-part series demonstrated that the post-World War II ‘baby boom’ and increasing life expectancy implies that there will be a considerable increase in deaths in the UK over the next 40 years. As the highest proportion of lifetime hospital bed occupancy occurs in the last 1 year of life, this has significant implications for bed planning. Not only can death act as a predictor of hospital use in the final year of life, it is also a key indicator of wider morbidity and mortality trends. Part two of this series investigates the wider implications of these findings, showing that the current NHS funding formula completely omits the nearness-to-death effect when predicting bed usage. As a result, the formula becomes dependent on the year in which it is primed, leading to gross over- and under-funding in subsequent years. These same issues also have serious implications for the minimum number of beds for financial stability in a Clinical Commissioning Group. A pragmatic overview is given regarding how to modify current bed models so that they can give answers that reflect real-world demand.

THE ROLE AND ROLE OF OIL POLICY IN SAUDI ARABIA IN POST WORLD WAR II ECONOMIC LIFE

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-41
Author(s):  
Maftuna Sanoqulova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
World War ◽  
Post World War Ii ◽  
The World ◽  
History Of ◽  
Oil Policy

This article consists of the politics which connected with oil in Saudi Arabia after the World war II , the relations of economical cooperations on this matter and the place of oil in the history of world economics

A war hero or a Hitler soldier?

2019 ◽  
pp. 50-57
Author(s):  
Pavel Gotovetsky
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Interwar Period ◽  
Military Service ◽  
Third Reich ◽  
National Committee ◽  
World War ◽  
The Third ◽  
The World ◽  
The Third Reich

The article is devoted to the biography of General Pavlo Shandruk, an Ukrainian officer who served as a Polish contract officer in the interwar period and at the beginning of the World War II, and in 1945 became the organizer and commander of the Ukrainian National Army fighting alongside the Third Reich in the last months of the war. The author focuses on the symbolic event of 1961, which was the decoration of General Shandruk with the highest Polish (émigré) military decoration – the Virtuti Militari order, for his heroic military service in 1939. By describing the controversy and emotions among Poles and Ukrainians, which accompanied the award of the former Hitler's soldier, the author tries to answer the question of how the General Shandruk’s activities should be assessed in the perspective of the uneasy Twentieth-Century Polish-Ukrainian relations. Keywords: Pavlo Shandruk, Władysław Anders, Virtuti Militari, Ukrainian National Army, Ukrainian National Committee, contract officer.

Sovereignty at the Paris Peace Conference of 1919

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonard V. Smith
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
International Relations ◽  
International System ◽  
International Relations Theory ◽  
League Of Nations ◽  
Great Power ◽  
World War ◽  
Treaty Of Versailles ◽  
The World ◽  
Paris Peace Conference

We have long known that the Paris Peace Conference of 1919 “failed” in the sense that it did not prevent the outbreak of World War II. This book investigates not whether the conference succeeded or failed, but the historically specific international system it created. It explores the rules under which that system operated, and the kinds of states and empires that inhabited it. Deepening the dialogue between history and international relations theory makes it possible to think about sovereignty at the conference in new ways. Sovereignty in 1919 was about remaking “the world”—not just determining of answers demarcating the international system, but also the questions. Most histories of the Paris Peace Conference stop with the signing of the Treaty of Versailles with Germany on June 28, 1919. This book considers all five treaties produced by the conference as well as the Treaty of Lausanne with Turkey in 1923. It is organized not chronologically or geographically, but according to specific problems of sovereignty. A peace based on “justice” produced a criminalized Great Power in Germany, and a template problematically applied in the other treaties. The conference as sovereign sought to “unmix” lands and peoples in the defeated multinational empires by drawing boundaries and defining ethnicities. It sought less to oppose revolution than to instrumentalize it. The League of Nations, so often taken as the supreme symbol of the conference’s failure, is better considered as a continuation of the laboratory of sovereignty established in Paris.

Introduction

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda L. Tyler
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
War On Terror ◽  
Japanese Americans ◽  
Legal Tradition ◽  
World War ◽  
Modern Conception ◽  
The World ◽  
Enemy Combatant

The Introduction begins by exploring modern examples sanctioning the concept of the citizen enemy combatant, such as the War on Terror cases of José Padilla and Yaser Hamdi. It then suggests that the roots of this concept may be found in the World War II detention of Japanese Americans, including over 70,000 U.S. citizens. The Introduction continues by arguing that this modern conception of the citizen enemy combatant is impossible to reconcile with the historic understanding of the Suspension Clause and the habeas privilege that trace their origins to English legal tradition, an understanding that remained consistent well through Reconstruction. The Introduction concludes with an overview of the book.

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