Does the ageing population correctly predict the need for medical beds? Part two: wider implications

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Rodney P Jones

The first article in this two-part series demonstrated that the post-World War II ‘baby boom’ and increasing life expectancy implies that there will be a considerable increase in deaths in the UK over the next 40 years. As the highest proportion of lifetime hospital bed occupancy occurs in the last 1 year of life, this has significant implications for bed planning. Not only can death act as a predictor of hospital use in the final year of life, it is also a key indicator of wider morbidity and mortality trends. Part two of this series investigates the wider implications of these findings, showing that the current NHS funding formula completely omits the nearness-to-death effect when predicting bed usage. As a result, the formula becomes dependent on the year in which it is primed, leading to gross over- and under-funding in subsequent years. These same issues also have serious implications for the minimum number of beds for financial stability in a Clinical Commissioning Group. A pragmatic overview is given regarding how to modify current bed models so that they can give answers that reflect real-world demand.

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Rodney P Jones

The World War II baby boom, coupled with increasing life expectancy, will lead to increasing numbers of deaths for the next 40 years. The last year of life represents a large proportion (55%) of lifetime hospital bed occupancy. This is called the nearness to death effect. However, the nearness to death effect has not been factored into NHS capacity planning, which largely relies on age-based forecasting, often called the ageing population. In certain locations, deaths are predicted to rise far more rapidly than the national average of 1% per annual growth. These locations are highly susceptible to capacity pressures emanating from the nearness to death effect, which is not compatible with recent policies that aim to build smaller hospitals. This article is the first of a two-part series discussing these trends in deaths and bed demand, as well as the likely impact on NHS capacity and the implications for the NHS funding formula.


Author(s):  
Valerie Francis ◽  
Adele Prosser

The Australian construction industry is highly reliant on the local labour force and those employed within it undertake a wide variety of roles ranging from labouring to management. In the past 20 years construction has seen record levels of employment; however lack of skilled labour is becoming problematic. Australia, like most industrialised countries, has an ageing population due to falling birth rates, increased life expectancy and the ageing of the large post-World War II ‘baby boom’ generation. Deciding on a career is one of the most fundamental activities in a young person’s life and the role of the school career counsellor is crucial in this process. This research examined secondary school career counsellor’s knowledge of construction, their perceptions of it as a good career choice and how often they directed male and female students to investigate construction as a career. Comparisons using paired t-tests found career counsellors perceived construction to be a better career option for young men, and directed them more frequently than women, to explore construction careers. The findings also indicate that an educative model, where students and counsellors gain firsthand knowledge from people working in the industry, may counter negative gender stereotypes associated with this area of work and encourage more young people, both male and female, to consider a career in the construction industry.


Author(s):  
C. Claire Thomson

This chapter traces the early history of state-sponsored informational filmmaking in Denmark, emphasising its organisation as a ‘cooperative’ of organisations and government agencies. After an account of the establishment and early development of the agency Dansk Kulturfilm in the 1930s, the chapter considers two of its earliest productions, both process films documenting the manufacture of bricks and meat products. The broader context of documentary in Denmark is fleshed out with an account of the production and reception of Poul Henningsen’s seminal film Danmark (1935), and the international context is accounted for with an overview of the development of state-supported filmmaking in the UK, Italy and Germany. Developments in the funding and output of Dansk Kulturfilm up to World War II are outlined, followed by an account of the impact of the German Occupation of Denmark on domestic informational film. The establishment of the Danish Government Film Committee or Ministeriernes Filmudvalg kick-started aprofessionalisation of state-sponsored filmmaking, and two wartime public information films are briefly analysed as examples of its early output. The chapter concludes with an account of the relations between the Danish Resistance and an emerging generation of documentarists.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Ben Hannigan

Abstract Wales is a small country, with an ageing population, high levels of population health need and an economy with a significant reliance on public services. Its health system attracts little attention, with analyses tending to underplay the differences between the four countries of the UK. This paper helps redress this via a case study of Welsh mental health policy, services and nursing practice. Distinctively, successive devolved governments in Wales have emphasised public planning and provision. Wales also has primary legislation addressing sustainability and future generations, safe nurse staffing and rights of access to mental health services. However, in a context in which gaps always exist between national policy, local services and face-to-face care, evidence points to the existence of tension between Welsh policy aspirations and realities. Mental health nurses in Wales have produced a framework for action, which describes practice exemplars and looks forward to a secure future for the profession. With policy, however enlightened, lacking the singular potency to bring about intended change, nurses as the largest of the professional groups involved in mental health care have opportunities to make a difference in Wales through leadership, influence and collective action.


Author(s):  
Filippo Oncini

AbstractCOVID-19 has brought to light the severity of economic inequalities by testing the capacity of the poorest families to make ends meet. Food insecurity has in fact soared all over the UK, with many people forced to rely on food support providers to not go hungry. This paper uses a unique dataset on 55 food support organizations active in Greater Manchester during the first COVID-19 wave, and 41 semi-structured interviews with food aid spokespersons and stakeholders, to shed light on what they overcame, the complications and drawbacks of the food emergency response plan put in place. The results indicate that food aid organizations that remained open were surprisingly effective despite the growth in user demand and the decrease in volunteers. However, the necessity to maintain a timely supply food at all costs came with important drawbacks. The lockdown measures that followed COVID-19 not only affected the financial stability and management of the organizations, and the availability of food, but undermined the ways in which food support providers used to operate. Owing to physical distancing measures and to the increasing numbers of users, more or less intangible forms of support such as financial advice, empathic listening and human warmth were partially lost, probably when they were needed more than ever.


Dental Update ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (10) ◽  
pp. 907-913
Author(s):  
Kasim Butt ◽  
Razia Butt ◽  
Praveen Sharma

Periodontal disease is the most common chronic inflammatory disease seen in humans. It is a major public health concern, and in its severe form affects approximately 10.8% or 743 million people aged 15−99 worldwide. Trends such as the rise of smoking in developing countries, the obesity and diabetes epidemic, coupled with an ageing population with greater tooth retention, are all likely to increase the burden of periodontitis still further in the UK and worldwide. Consequences of periodontitis include hypermobility of teeth, tooth migration, drifting and eventual tooth loss. Tooth loss can directly affect the quality of life of a person in terms of reduced functional capacity, self-esteem and social relationships. CPD/Clinical Relevance: This article reports the prevalence of periodontal disease in the UK and worldwide, along with the consequences of periodontitis. The importance of timely diagnosis to avoid litigation is discussed, as is the importance of effective management of periodontitis in order to improve patients' oral health-related quality of life.


2009 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Roseveare ◽  

Milestones are often seen as opportunities for reflection and reminiscence. As this edition of the journal coincides with the 10th anniversary of my consultant appointment I hope readers will forgive a couple of paragraphs of self-indulgence. The phrase: ‘Where did all that time go?’ will probably be familiar to physicians at a more advanced stage of their career. With medical students now returning as specialist registrars, and former house officers appearing as consultant colleagues, the passage of time is increasingly apparent. I recently realised that our current third year students were born in the year I clerked my first patient: surprisingly I still remember his name, age and diagnosis, unlike many of those (and all of the students!) who I have seen since. On a more positive note, there have clearly been a lot of changes over these ten years: at the time of my appointment in June 1999 there was just a small handful of ‘acute physicians’ in the UK. SAM meetings attracted barely 100 delegates, despite providing free admission, and most of us had planned our escape route in case the acute medicine concept went ‘belly-up’ before our retirement. Now, with several hundred acute medicine consultants, similar numbers of trainees, and ‘full speciality’ status rapidly approaching, job security should no longer be a major concern. Indeed, the last 12 months has seen a further considerable expansion of the speciality; all of the first cohort of acute medicine trainees in Wessex have secured consultant positions, and I am told that SAM now has close to 700 full members. What the next ten years will bring remains to be seen, but with an ageing population and year-round pressures from rising emergency admissions, acute medicine will surely continue to strengthen. As I indicated last time, an increasing number of research-based submissions will be trickling into the journal over the next few editions. The impact of alcohol on the Health Service is a subject which has been at the top of the political agenda in recent months. So it is timely to include an article highlighting its impact on the Acute Medical intake in a busy Teaching hospital in this edition of the journal. The finding that one-in-five patients admitted to the AMU were considered ‘hazardous’ drinkers will probably come as no surprise to acute physicians working elsewhere in the UK. In fact this figure may have been an under-estimate given that the number of units consumer per week was not documented in 30% of clerking records. The demographic shift away from the stereotype ‘middle-aged male’ drinker is also apparent with large numbers of females aged 40-59 falling into this category. Recent editions of this journal would not seem complete without mention of training in practical procedures. In this issue the SAM trainee representatives have summarised the recent trainee survey in this area, providing some recommendations which will hopefully be incorporated into the new curriculum. Readers who are becoming tired of this subject can be reassured that this should be the final article relating to this for the time being! I hope this edition provides interesting reading and please keep the submissions coming – although the review articles are usually solicited by the editorial team, we will continue to consider any submitted article for publication, provided there is a clear teaching message for those working in the field of Acute Medicine. Any feedback on the articles included in this or previous editions would also be welcome, and may be included in a future ‘viewpoint’ or ‘letters to the editor’ section.


2018 ◽  
Vol 81 (6-8) ◽  
pp. 602-622
Author(s):  
Dennis Lichtenstein ◽  
Christiane Eilders

The Euro crisis has revealed severe conflicts between EU member states and challenged a shared European identity. This article investigates how the crisis was reflected in identity constructions in media discourses in EU key countries. European identity construction is conceptualized as framing of the EU in favour or against belonging to the EU and togetherness with other members. Conducting a systematic content analysis of two weekly newspapers and magazines in Germany, France and the UK, we compare identity constructions between 2011 and 2014. Findings show that while support of belonging to the EU is low in general, the countries differ remarkably in terms of their sense of togetherness. This particularly applies to strong or weak political integration, market regulation or market freedom and financial stability or impulses for economic growth. The positions reflect long-term political conflicts between the countries but are also flexible enough to adapt to the particular event context.


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