AgMIP (Crops & Soils)- The crucial role of soil when modeling the impact of climate change on crop production

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Assessment Model Impact of Climate Change on Potential Production for Food and Energy Needs for the Coastal Areas of Bengkulu, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-169
Author(s):  
Eko Sumartono ◽  
Gita Mulyasari ◽  
Ketut Sukiyono
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Appropriate Technology ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Food Reserves ◽  
The Impact

Bengkulu is said to be the center of the world's climate because of the influence of water conditions and the topography of the area where the rain cloud formation starts. The waters in Bengkulu Province become a meeting place for four ocean currents which eventually become an area where the evaporation process of forming rain clouds becomes the rainy or dry season and affects the world climate. Method to analyze descriptively, shows oldeman Classification and satellite rainfall estimation data is added. In relation to the Analysis of Potential Food Availability for the Coastal Areas of Bengkulu Province uses a quantifiable descriptive analysis method based. The results show that most are included in the Oldeman A1 climate zone, which means it is suitable for continuous rice but less production due to generally low radiation intensity throughout the year. In an effort to reduce or eliminate the impact of climate change on food crop production, it is necessary to suggest crop diversification, crop rotation, and the application of production enhancement technologies. Strategies in building food availability as a result of climate change are: First, develop food supplies originating from regional production and food reserves on a provincial scale. Second, Empowering small-scale food businesses which are the dominant characteristics of the agricultural economy, especially lowland rice and horticultural crops. Third, Increase technology dissemination and increase the capacity of farmers in adopting appropriate technology to increase crop productivity and business efficiency. Four, Promote the reduction of food loss through the use of food handling, processing and distribution technologies. 

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change Using Trend Analysis of Rainfall, RRL AWBM Toolkit, Synthetic and Arbitrary Scenarios

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Ayushi Trivedi ◽  
S. K. Pyasi ◽  
R. V. Galkate
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
The Impact

The integrated approach for assessment of the impact of climate change is important, as climate impacts are likely to transcend sectoral or regional boundaries, with impacts of change in hydrological and geological behaviour of one sector affecting the behaviour of another or simultaneously any other sector, or region, to respond. Modelling is often used by hydrologists in the analysis of empirical data to gain insights into the underlying dynamics of simulated runoff and its trend changing pattern. Thus, these models extrapolate from a climate-related (usually temperature-related) relationship derived by observations and experiment. The climate changes have adverse and drastic impacts on climate-sensitive sectors such as water resources, agriculture and ultimately livelihood and economy of the people. Thus consequently increase or decrease in temperature, rainfall and other climatic parameters due to climate change affect the river discharge, flood, reservoir storages, groundwater levels, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, crop production, sea levels etc. Keeping this insight patches of major changes from the whole study area were selected to assess the intensity of rainfall, discharge and the incremental impact of rainfall. The temporal analysis in selected patches revealed that increment and decrement in the study area simultaneously affect the runoff by the same proportion. The trend generated through the Mann-Kendall test not only helped in assessing the impact of climate change but also identified its causative actors. The results of the study can effectively be utilized for setting priorities of hydrological behaviour in different geographical regions at various scales.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of climate change on maize yield in Victoria Nile Sub-basin, Uganda

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joash Bwambale ◽  
Khaldoon A. Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Aquacrop Model ◽  
Supplementary Irrigation ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAgriculture is the backbone of Uganda’s economy, with about 24.9% contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) as per the Uganda National Household Survey 2016/17. Agricultural productivity (yield per hectare) is still low due to the high dependence on rain-fed subsistence farming. Climate change is expected to further reduce the yield per hectare. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on maize yield in the Victoria Nile Sub-basin using the AquaCrop model. It further assesses the possible adaptation measures to climate change. The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2–Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) data downloaded from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was used to simulate maize yield in the near future (2021–2040), mid future (2041–2070) and late future (2071–2099). Results show that maize yield is likely to reduce by as high as 1–10%, 2–42% and 1–39% in the near, mid and late futures, respectively, depending on the agro-ecological zone. This decline in maize yield can have a significant impact on regional food security as well as socio-economic well-being since maize is a staple crop. The study also shows that improving soil fertility has no significant impact on maize yield under climate change. However, a combined application of supplementary irrigation and shifting the planting dates is a promising strategy to maintain food security and socio-economic development. This study presents important findings and adaptation strategies that policymakers and other stakeholders such as farmers can implement to abate the effects of climate change on crop production.

scholarly journals ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN PONNANIYAR BASIN OF TAMIL NADU BASED ON REGCM 4.4 SIMULATIONS

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W6 ◽  
pp. 21-24
Author(s):  
V. Guhan ◽  
V. Geethalakshmi ◽  
R. Jagannathan ◽  
S. Panneerselvam ◽  
K. Bhuvaneswari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Tomato Yield ◽  
Aquacrop Model ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Climate change induced extreme weather events such as drought and flood condition are likely to become more common and associated impacts on crop production will be more without proper irrigation planning. The present investigation was undertaken for assessing the impact of Climate change on tomato yield and water use efficiency (WUE) using AquaCrop model and RegCM 4.4 simulations. The water driven AquaCrop model was validated based on observation of field experiment conducted with four different dates of sowing (1st November, 15th November, 1st December, 15th December) at Ponnaniyar basin, Tiruchirappalli. Validation of AquaCrop model indicated the capability of AquaCrop in predicting tomato yield, biomass and WUE close to the observed data. Seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures over Tiruchirappalli are projected to increase in the mid-century under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Maximum temperature is expected to increase up to 1.7&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C/2.5&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C in SWM and 1.9&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C/2.9&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization (RCP 4.5) and overshoot emission (RCP 8.5) pathways. Minimum temperature is expected to increase up to 1.6&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C/2.2&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C in SWM and 1.6&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C/2.1&amp;thinsp;&amp;deg;C in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization (RCP 4.5) and overshoot emission (RCP 8.5) pathways. Seasonal rainfall over Tiruchirappalli is expected to decrease with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5scenarios with different magnitude. Rainfall is expected to change to the tune of &amp;minus;1/&amp;minus;11 per cent in SWM and &amp;minus;2/&amp;minus;14 per cent in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization (RCP 4.5) and overshoot emission (RCP 8.5) pathways.</p>

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN WEST AFRICA: A BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 1950015
Author(s):  
BORIS O. K. LOKONON ◽  
AKLESSO Y. G. EGBENDEWE ◽  
NAGA COULIBALY ◽  
CALVIN ATEWAMBA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.

Comparison of five wheat simulation models In southern Alberta

1995 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Touré ◽  
D. J. Major ◽  
C. W. Lindwall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Epic Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Long Term Experiment ◽  
The Impact

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to result in global warming which will affect crop production. Crop modelling is a useful tool for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The objective of this study was to select an appropriate model for climate change studies. Five simulation models, EPIC, CERES, Century, Sinclair and Stewart, were assessed using data from a long-term experiment begun in 1911 on a clay loam (Dark Brown Chernozem) soil at Lethbridge, AB. Yields predicted by the five models were compared with actual spring wheat yields in continuous wheat, fallow-wheat and fallow-wheat-wheat rotations. The EPIC model gave the best simulation results over all rotations and the most accurate predictions of mean yields during droughts. It was concluded that the EPIC model had the greatest potential for assessing the impact of climate change on wheat yield. The Stewart model was the most accurate for unfertilized continuous wheat and fallow-wheat. The Sinclair model was most accurate for fertilized fallow-wheat and CERES was the most accurate model for fertilized continuous wheat. The Century model simulated average yield accurately but did not account for year-to-year variability. Key words: Global warming, crop simulation, spring wheat yields

Impact of Climate Change on the Farm-based Adaptive Strategies in Bhaktapur District

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 211-228
Author(s):  
Suman Kumar Shrestha ◽  
Shambhu Prasad Khatiwada
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Adaptive Strategies ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

This paper explores the impact of climate change on the farm-based adaptive strategies of the communities in Suryabinayak Municipality, Bhaktapur district. The mixed-method (QUAN-QUL) research design was applied to data collection, although, quantitative method is predominant. There were 107 households sampled purposively from Ward No. 5 and 9. Primary data were collected from field observation, personal interviews, focus group discussion (FGD), and Key informant survey (KIS) methods. Then these data have been analyzed through triangulation. Secondary data were collected from archives and e-resources. Individual experiences, perceptions and views have been analyzed from the Likert (1-5) scale and the Cronbach alpha was applied to the significant test. The findings showed that more than 65 percent of households said they received information on climate change from Radio, TV, and Newspapers. One of the Key persons stated that for almost two decades, cereal crop production is declining since the last two decades. In this regard, more than 72 percent of households reported that the temperature rise is the main reason for declining in yielding of cereal crops. It has followed by the frequent floods in the second (19.6%) and droughts in the least (8.4%). They seem to have adapted diversified livelihood strategies to mitigate the adverse conditions of climate change, such as vegetable farming, floriculture, mushroom farming, poultry, animal husbandry, and fishing according to their socioeconomic systems. However, their responses are varying across time and space based on the adaptive capacity of the local community. In this situation, the cooperation of local governments, non-governmental organizations, financial institutions, and other external supports need to increase adaptive capacity. But there does not seem to be any cooperation between the stakeholders to mitigate the effects of climate change. As a result, the majority of the community still has to rely on traditional farming methods. Thus, the farm-based adaptive strategy seems to be at risk day-by-day.  

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