THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN WEST AFRICA: A BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 1950015
Author(s):  
BORIS O. K. LOKONON ◽  
AKLESSO Y. G. EGBENDEWE ◽  
NAGA COULIBALY ◽  
CALVIN ATEWAMBA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on food yield in Senegal: FAVAR approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mamadou Abdoulaye KONTE ◽  
Gnalenba ABLOUKA ◽  
Paoli BEHANZIN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Shock ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Shock ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of climate change on food crop yields in Senegal using the Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) approach. The estimation method used is principal components analysis. We identified two major shocks representative of climate change. The first is an increase of temperature (thermal shock) and the second is a decrease in the quantity of precipitation (rainfall shock). The data covers the period 1970-2014 and each of the shocks is carried out over the prior year. The impact of each shock is observed along a time horizon of 10 years. The results show a positive impact of the thermal shock on the yields of rice, maize and millet, with a much greater impact on rice and maize yield. Rising temperatures are, however, detrimental to sorghum. A decline in rainfall has a negative impact on the yields of all cereals, which is in line with expectations.

scholarly journals The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Roudier ◽  
Benjamin Sultan ◽  
Philippe Quirion ◽  
Alexis Berg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Median Response ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Symposium on Social Theory and the Environment in the New World (dis)Order ; International audience ; In West Africa, agriculture, mainly rainfed, is a major economic sector and the one most vulnerable to climate change. A meta-database of future crop yields, built up from 16 recent studies, is used to provide an overall assessment of the potential impact of climate change on yields, and to analyze sources of uncertainty. Despite a large dispersion of yield changes ranging from -50% to +90%, the median is a yield loss near -11%. This negative impact is assessed by both empirical and process-based crop models whereas the Ricardian approach gives very contrasted results, even within a single study. The predicted impact is larger in northern West Africa (Sudano-Sahelian countries, -18% median response) than in southern West Africa (Guinean countries, -13%) which is likely due to drier and warmer projections in the northern part of West Africa. Moreover, negative impacts on crop productivity increase in severity as warming intensifies, with a median yield loss near -15% with most intense warming, highlighting the importance of global warming mitigation. The consistently negative impact of climate change results mainly from the temperature whose increase projected by climate models is much larger relative to precipitation change. However, rainfall changes, still uncertain in climate projections, have the potential to exacerbate or mitigate this impact depending on whether rainfall decreases or increases. Finally, results highlight the pivotal role that the carbon fertilization effect may have on the sign and amplitude of change in crop yields. This effect is particularly strong for a high carbon dioxide concentration scenario and for C3 crops (e.g. soybean, cassava). As staple crops are mainly C4 (e.g. maize, millet, sorghum) in WA, this positive effect is less significant for the region. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.

scholarly journals The importance of species interactions in eco-evolutionary community dynamics under climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Åkesson ◽  
Alva Curtsdotter ◽  
Anna Eklöf ◽  
Bo Ebenman ◽  
Jon Norberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Community Dynamics ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEco-evolutionary dynamics are essential in shaping the biological response of communities to ongoing climate change. Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary framework which features more detailed species interactions, integrating evolution and dispersal. We include species interactions within and between trophic levels, and additionally, we incorporate the feature that species’ interspecific competition might change due to increasing temperatures and affect the impact of climate change on ecological communities. Our modeling framework captures previously reported ecological responses to climate change, and also reveals two key results. First, interactions between trophic levels as well as temperature-dependent competition within a trophic level mitigate the negative impact of climate change on biodiversity, emphasizing the importance of understanding biotic interactions in shaping climate change impact. Second, our trait-based perspective reveals a strong positive relationship between the within-community variation in preferred temperatures and the capacity to respond to climate change. Temperature-dependent competition consistently results both in higher trait variation and more responsive communities to altered climatic conditions. Our study demonstrates the importance of species interactions in an eco-evolutionary setting, further expanding our knowledge of the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Changes on Crop Yield: Irrigated vs. Non-Irrigated Zones in Mississippi

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2249
Author(s):  
Sadia Alam Shammi ◽  
Qingmin Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and its impact on agriculture are challenging issues regarding food production and food security. Many researchers have been trying to show the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agriculture using different methods. In this study, we used linear regression models to assess the impact of climate on crop yield spatially and temporally by managing irrigated and non-irrigated crop fields. The climate data used in this study are Tmax (maximum temperature), Tmean (mean temperature), Tmin (minimum temperature), precipitation, and soybean annual yields, at county scale for Mississippi, USA, from 1980 to 2019. We fit a series of linear models that were evaluated based on statistical measurements of adjusted R-square, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). According to the statistical model evaluation, the 1980–1992 model Y[Tmax,Tmin,Precipitation]92i (BIC = 120.2) for irrigated zones and the 1993–2002 model Y[Tmax,Tmean,Precipitation]02ni (BIC = 1128.9) for non-irrigated zones showed the best fit for the 10-year period of climatic impacts on crop yields. These models showed about 2 to 7% significant negative impact of Tmax increase on the crop yield for irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Besides, the models for different agricultural districts also explained the changes of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation in the irrigated (adjusted R-square: 13–28%) and non-irrigated zones (adjusted R-square: 8–73%). About 2–10% negative impact of Tmax was estimated across different agricultural districts, whereas about −2 to +17% impacts of precipitation were observed for different districts. The modeling of 40-year periods of the whole state of Mississippi estimated a negative impact of Tmax (about 2.7 to 8.34%) but a positive impact of Tmean (+8.9%) on crop yield during the crop growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Overall, we assessed that crop yields were negatively affected (about 2–8%) by the increase of Tmax during the growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated zones. Both positive and negative impacts on crop yields were observed for the increases of Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation, respectively, for irrigated and non-irrigated zones. This study showed the pattern and extent of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation and their impacts on soybean yield at local and regional scales. The methods and the models proposed in this study could be helpful to quantify the climate change impacts on crop yields by considering irrigation conditions for different regions and periods.

The Impact of Climate Change on States

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 115-132
Author(s):  
Łukasz Kułaga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Law ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Fundamental Change ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The increase in sea levels, as a result of climate change in territorial aspect will have a potential impact on two major issues – maritime zones and land territory. The latter goes into the heart of the theory of the state in international law as it requires us to confront the problem of complete and permanent disappearance of a State territory. When studying these processes, one should take into account the fundamental lack of appropriate precedents and analogies in international law, especially in the context of the extinction of the state, which could be used for guidance in this respect. The article analyses sea level rise impact on baselines and agreed maritime boundaries (in particular taking into account fundamental change of circumstances rule). Furthermore, the issue of submergence of the entire territory of a State is discussed taking into account the presumption of statehood, past examples of extinction of states and the importance of recognition in this respect.

Structural safety and design under climate change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on climatic actions could significantly affect, in the mid-term future, the design of new structures as well as the reliability of existing ones designed in accordance to the provisions of present and past codes. Indeed, current climatic loads are defined under the assumption of stationary climate conditions but climate is not stationary and the current accelerated rate of changes imposes to consider its effects.</p><p>Increase of greenhouse gas emissions generally induces a global increase of the average temperature, but at local scale, the consequences of this phenomenon could be much more complex and even apparently not coherent with the global trend of main climatic parameters, like for example, temperature, rainfalls, snowfalls and wind velocity.</p><p>In the paper, a general methodology is presented, aiming to evaluate the impact of climate change on structural design, as the result of variations of characteristic values of the most relevant climatic actions over time. The proposed procedure is based on the analysis of an ensemble of climate projections provided according a medium and a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Factor of change for extreme value distribution’s parameters and return values are thus estimated in subsequent time windows providing guidance for adaptation of the current definition of structural loads.</p><p>The methodology is illustrated together with the outcomes obtained for snow, wind and thermal actions in Italy. Finally, starting from the estimated changes in extreme value parameters, the influence on the long-term structural reliability can be investigated comparing the resulting time dependent reliability with the reference reliability levels adopted in modern Structural codes.</p>

scholarly journals Investigation of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Stream Flow of Guder Catchment, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bekam Bekele Gulti ◽  
Boja Mokonnen Manyazew ◽  
Abdulkerim Bedewi Serur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Open Space ◽  
Smart Growth ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change (CC) and land use/cover change (LUCC) are the main drivers of streamflow change. In this paper, we investigate the impact of climate and LULC change impact on stream flow of Guder catchment by using Soil and Water Assessment model (SWAT). The scenarios were designed in a way that LULC was changed while climate conditions remain constant; LULC was then held constant under a changing climate and combined effect of both. The result shows that, the combined impacts of climate change and LULC dynamics can be rather different from the effects that follow-on from LULC or climate change alone. Streamflow would be more sensitive to climate change than to the LULC changes scenario, even though changes in LULC have far-reaching influences on streamflow in the study region. A comprehensive strategy of low impact developments, smart growth, and open space is critical to handle future changes to streamflow systems.

scholarly journals Assessment Model Impact of Climate Change on Potential Production for Food and Energy Needs for the Coastal Areas of Bengkulu, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-169
Author(s):  
Eko Sumartono ◽  
Gita Mulyasari ◽  
Ketut Sukiyono
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Appropriate Technology ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Food Reserves ◽  
The Impact

Bengkulu is said to be the center of the world's climate because of the influence of water conditions and the topography of the area where the rain cloud formation starts. The waters in Bengkulu Province become a meeting place for four ocean currents which eventually become an area where the evaporation process of forming rain clouds becomes the rainy or dry season and affects the world climate. Method to analyze descriptively, shows oldeman Classification and satellite rainfall estimation data is added. In relation to the Analysis of Potential Food Availability for the Coastal Areas of Bengkulu Province uses a quantifiable descriptive analysis method based. The results show that most are included in the Oldeman A1 climate zone, which means it is suitable for continuous rice but less production due to generally low radiation intensity throughout the year. In an effort to reduce or eliminate the impact of climate change on food crop production, it is necessary to suggest crop diversification, crop rotation, and the application of production enhancement technologies. Strategies in building food availability as a result of climate change are: First, develop food supplies originating from regional production and food reserves on a provincial scale. Second, Empowering small-scale food businesses which are the dominant characteristics of the agricultural economy, especially lowland rice and horticultural crops. Third, Increase technology dissemination and increase the capacity of farmers in adopting appropriate technology to increase crop productivity and business efficiency. Four, Promote the reduction of food loss through the use of food handling, processing and distribution technologies. 

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River Basin: a case study of the Nam Ou Basin, Lao PDR

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 3339-3384
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Lao Pdr ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Sediment Yields ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou Basin located in Northern Laos. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Future precipitation and temperature series are constructed through a delta change approach. As per the results, in general, temperature as well as precipitation show increasing trends in both scenarios, A2 and B2. However, monthly precipitation shows both increasing and decreasing trends. The simulation results exhibit that the wet and dry seasonal and annual stream discharges are likely to increase (by up to 15, 17 and 14% under scenario A2; and 11, 5 and 10% under scenario B2 respectively) in the future, which will lead to increased wet and dry seasonal and annual sediment yields (by up to 39, 28 and 36% under scenario A2; and 23, 12 and 22% under scenario B2 respectively). A higher discharge and more sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the changes, percentage-wise, are observed to be higher during the dry months. In conclusion, the sediment yield from the Nam Ou Basin is likely to increase with climate change, which strongly suggests the need for basin-wide sediment management strategies in order to reduce the negative impact of this change.

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