scholarly journals WEB-BASED SYSTEM FOR ASSESSING RISK FACTORS FOR FALLS IN COMMUNITY-DWELLING ELDERLY PEOPLE USING THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

Author(s):  
Leandro Pecchia ◽  
Peter A. Bath ◽  
Neil Pendleton ◽  
Marcelo Bracale

<p>Falls occur frequently among older people and represent the most common cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in later life. Preventing falls is an important way to reduce injuries, hospitalizations, and injury-related morbidity and mortality among older people. The research literature has identified hundreds of risk factors for falls among elderly people. Prioritizing risk factors for falls is useful for designing effective and efficacious prevention programs. The aim of this study was to use the Analytic Hierarchy Process to develop a hierarchy of risk factors for falls based on the knowledge and experience of experts working in this field. We designed and developed a web portal for participants to submit responses to electronic questionnaires in order to reach the highest number of respondents quickly and to reduce errors in responding. We contacted the person responsible for the Falls sections of four scientific societies. Finally, we propose a correction method to modify respondents’ relative importance on based on the coherence of their responses, in order not to exclude experts who had submitted the questionnaire twice.</p><p>http://dx.doi.org/10.13033/ijahp.v2i2.61</p>

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (05) ◽  
pp. 435-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. A. Bath ◽  
N. Pendleton ◽  
M. Bracale ◽  
L. Pecchia

SummaryBackground: A gap exists between evidence-based medicine and clinical-practice. Every day, healthcare professionals (HCPs) combine empirical evidence and subjective experience in order to maximize the effectiveness of interventions. Consequently, it is important to understand how HCPs interpret the research evidence and apply it in everyday practice. We focused on the prevention of falls, a common cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in later life, for which there is a wide range of known risk factors.Objectives: To use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to investigate the opinions of HCPs in prioritizing risk factors for preventing falls.Methods: We used the AHP to develop a hierarchy of risk factors for falls based on the knowledge and experience of experts. We submitted electronic questionnaires via the web, in order to reach a wider number of respondents. With a web service, we pooled the results and weighted the coherence and the experience of respondents.Results: Overall, 232 respondents participated in the study: 32 in the technical pilot study, nine in the scientific pilot study and 191 respondents in the main study. We identified a hierarchy of 35 risk factors, organized in two categories and six sub-categories.Conclusions: The hierarchy of risk factors provides further insights into clinicians’ perceptions of risk factors for falls. This hierarchy helps understand the relative importance that clinicians place on risk factors for falls in older people and why evidence-based guidelines are not always followed. This information may be helpful in improving intervention programs and in understanding how clinicians prioritize multiple risk factors in individual patients. The AHP method allows the opinions of HCPs to be investigated, giving appropriate weight to their coherence, background and experience.


1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (10) ◽  
pp. 2089-2095 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.M. Reynolds ◽  
E.H. Holsten

Nine factors were initially suggested by spruce beetle (Dendroctonusrufipennis (Kby.)) experts in Alaska as potentially important in determining the risk of a spruce beetle outbreak in stands. Factors suggested were stand hazard, size and trend of spruce beetle population in neighboring stands, degree–days in the past June, total rainfall in the past summer, and availability of four types of breeding material. Risk factors were organized into a hierarchical model of spruce beetle risk, and the relative importance of factors for determining risk was analyzed in three stages with the analytic hierarchy process. This process derives subjective estimates of factor importance values through a process of pair-wise comparisons. Analysis in stage 1 involved independent responses of two experts from Alaska. In stage 2, three experts from Alaska provided responses as a group. In stage 3, five experts, representing Alaska, British Columbia, and the Rocky Mountain region, provided responses as a group. In the final stage of analysis, stand hazard and windthrown trees were identified as the two most important factors determining risk of a spruce beetle outbreak. Hazard and windthrow were considered about equally important and together accounted for almost two-thirds of the total allocation of importance values among risk factors. The analytic hierarchy process is an effective method for eliciting expert knowledge and can be a useful tool for development of expert systems in natural resource management, where even expert knowledge is often incomplete.


2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Luz Judith Rodríguez-Esparza ◽  
Diana Barraza-Barraza ◽  
Jesús Salazar-Ibarra ◽  
Rafael Gerardo Vargas-Pasaye

Objectives: To identify early suicide risk signs on depressive subjects, so that specialized care can be provided. Various studies have focused on studying expressions on social networks, where users pour their emotions, to determine if they show signs of depression or not. However, they have neglected the quantification of the risk of committing suicide. Therefore, this article proposes a new index for identifying suicide risk in Mexico. Methodology: The proposal index is constructed through opinion mining using Twitter and the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Contribution: Using R statistical package, a study is presented considering real data, making a classification of people according to the obtained index and using information from psychologists. The proposed methodology represents an innovative prevention alternative for suicide.


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