Abstract
Background
Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and abdominal obesity are one of the most common CVD risk factors among young and mature patients. However, the currently used CVD risk assessment scales may underestimate the CV risk in people with obesity and MS. Early vascular aging rather than chronological aging can conceptually offer better risk prediction. MetS, as accumulation of classical risk factors, leads to acceleration of early vascular aging. Since an important feature of MetS is its reversibility, an adequate risk assessment and early start of therapy is important in relation to the possibilities of preventing related complications.
Purpose
To derive a new score for calculation vascular age and predicting EVA in patients with MetS.
Methods
Prospective open cohort study using routinely collected data from general practice. The derivation cohort consisted of 1000 patients, aged 35–80 years with MetS (IDF,2005 criteria). The validation cohort consisted of 484 patients with MetS and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) values exceeding expected for average age values by 2 or more SD (EVA syndrome).
Results
In univariate analysis, EVA was significantly correlated with the presence of type 2 diabetes and clinical markers of insulin resistance (IR), body mass index (BMI), metabolic syndrome severity score (MetS z-score), uric acid (UA) level, hsCRP, HOMA-IR, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), heart rate (HR), central aortic blood pressure (CBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP). Multiple logistic regression shown, that presence of type 2 diabetes and IR were associated with greater risk of EVA; the odds ratios were 2.75 (95% CI: 2.34, 3.35) and 1.57 (95% CI: 1.16, 2.00), respectively. In addition, the risk of having EVA increased by 76% with an increase in HOMA-IR by 1 unit, by 17% with an increase in hsCRP by 1 mg/l, by 4% with an increase in DBP by 1 mm Hg, and by 1% with each 1 μmol / L increase in the level of UA. The area under the curve for predicting EVA in patients with MetS was 0,949 (95% CI 0,936 to 0,963), 0,630 (95% CI 0,589 to 0,671), 0,697 (95% CI 0,659 to 0,736) and 0,686 (95% CI 0,647 to 0,726), for vascular age, calculated from cfPWV, SCORE scale, QRISK-3 scale and Framingham scale, respectively. Diabetes mellitus and clinical markers of IR (yes/no), HOMA-IR and UA level were used to develop a new VAmets score for EVA prediction providing a total accuracy of 0.830 (95% CI 0,799 to 0,860).
Conclusion
cfPWV at present the most widely studied index of arterial stiffness, fulfills most of the stringent criteria for a clinically useful biomarker of EVA in patients with MetS. Although, parallel efforts for effective integration simple clinical score into clinical practice have been offered. Our score (VAmets) may accurately identify patients with MetS and EVA on the basis of widely available clinical variables and classic cardiovascular risk factors can prioritize using of vascular age in routine care.
ROC-curves for predicting EVA in MetS
Funding Acknowledgement
Type of funding source: None
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