Neighborhood greenspace and risk of type 2 diabetes in a prospective cohort: the Multi-Ethncity Study of Atherosclerosis

Background Neighborhood greenspaces provide opportunities for increased physical activity and social interaction, and thus may reduce the risk of Type 2 diabetes. However, there is little robust research on greenspace and diabetes. In this study, we examine the longitudinal association between neighborhood greenspace and incident diabetes in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Methods A prospective cohort study (N = 6814; 2000-2018) was conducted to examine the association between greenspace, measured as annual and high vegetation season median greenness determined by satellite (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) within 1000 m of participant homes, and incident diabetes assessed at clinician visits, defined as a fasting glucose level of at least 126 mg/dL, use of insulin or use of hypoglycemic medication, controlling for covariates in stages. Five thousand five hundred seventy-four participants free of prevalent diabetes at baseline were included in our analysis. Results Over the study period, 886 (15.9%) participants developed diabetes. Adjusting for individual characteristics, individual and neighborhood-scale SES, additional neighborhood factors, and diabetes risk factors, we found a 21% decrease in the risk of developing diabetes per IQR increase in greenspace (HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.63, 0.99). Conclusions Overall, neighborhood greenspace provides a protective influence in the development of diabetes, suggesting that neighborhood-level urban planning that supports access to greenspace--along with healthy behaviors--may aid in diabetes prevention. Additional research is needed to better understand how an area’s greenness influences diabetes risk, how to better characterize greenspace exposure and usage, and future studies should focus on robust adjustment for neighborhood-level confounders.

Prognostic Value of Exercise Capacity In Incidence Diabetes: A Country With High Prevalence of Diabetes

Background: Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a fast-growing health problem that imposes an enormous economic burden. Several studies demonstrated the association between physical inactivity and predicting the incidence of diabetes. However, these prediction models have limited validation locally. Therefore, we aim to explore the predictive value of exercise capacity in the incidence of diabetes within a high diabetes prevalence population.Methodology: A retrospective cohort study including consecutive patients free of diabetes who underwent clinically indicated treadmill stress testing. Diabetic patients at baseline or patients younger than 18 years of age were excluded. Incident diabetes was defined as an established clinical diagnosis post-exercise testing date. The predictive value of exercise capacity was examined using Harrell’s c-index, net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI).Results: A total of 8,722 participants (mean age 46±12 years, 66.3% were men) were free of diabetes at baseline. Over a median follow-up period of 5.24 (2.17-8.78) years, there were 2,280 (≈26%) new cases of diabetes. In a multivariate model adjusted for conventional risk factors, we found a 12% reduction in the risk of incident diabetes for each one greater MET achieved (HR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.88–0.92; P<0.001). Using Cox regression, exercise capacity improved the prediction ability beyond the conventional risk factors (AUC=0.62 to 0.66 and c-index= 0.62 to 0.68).Conclusion: Exercise capacity improved the overall predictability of incidence diabetes. Patients with reduced exercise capacity are at high risk for developing incidence diabetes. Improvement of both physical activity and functional capacity represents a preventive measure for the general population.

Prognostic Value of Exercise Capacity in Incidence Diabetes: A Country With High Prevalence of Diabetes

Background: Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a fast-growing health problem that imposes an enormous economic burden. Several studies demonstrated the association between physical inactivity and predicting the incidence of diabetes. However, these prediction models have limited validation locally. Therefore, we aim to explore the predictive value of exercise capacity in the incidence of diabetes within a high diabetes prevalence population.Methodology: A retrospective cohort study including consecutive patients free of diabetes who underwent clinically indicated treadmill stress testing. Diabetic patients at baseline or patients younger than 18 years of age were excluded. Incident diabetes was defined as an established clinical diagnosis post-exercise testing date. The predictive value of exercise capacity was examined using Harrell’s c-index, net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI).Results: A total of 8,722 participants (mean age 46±12 years, 66.3% were men) were free of diabetes at baseline. Over a median follow-up period of 5.24 (2.17-8.78) years, there were 2,280 (≈26%) new cases of diabetes. In a multivariate model adjusted for conventional risk factors, we found a 12% reduction in the risk of incident diabetes for each one greater MET achieved (HR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.88–0.92; P<0.001). Using Cox regression, exercise capacity improved the prediction ability beyond the conventional risk factors (AUC=0.62 to 0.66 and c-index= 0.62 to 0.68).Conclusion: Exercise capacity improved the overall predictability of incidence diabetes. Patients with reduced exercise capacity are at high risk for developing incidence diabetes. Improvement of both physical activity and functional capacity represents a preventive measure for the general population.

Metabolically healthy obesity, transition to unhealthy phenotypes and type 2 diabetes in 0.5 million Chinese adults: The China Kadoorie Biobank

Objectives: To prospectively assess the association of metabolic health status and its transition with incident diabetes risk across body mass index (BMI) categories. Design: Cohort study based on the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) Methods: The CKB study enrolled 512,715 adults aged 30-79 years from 10 diverse areas in China during 2004-2008. After exclusion, 432,763 participants were cross-classified by BMI categories and the metabolic status during followed-up for incident diabetes disease. The changes in BMI and metabolic health status were defined from baseline to the second resurvey. Results: Type 2 diabetes risk is higher for metabolically healthy obese (MHO) subjects than metabolically healthy normal weight (MHN) individuals (HR: 3.97, 95% CI: 3.64-3.66), and it is highest for those affected by metabolically healthy obese (MUO) (HR: 6.47, 95% CI: 6.17-6.79). About 15.26% of participants with MHN converted to metabolically healthy overweight or obesity (MHOO), whereas 48.40% of MHOO remained unconverted throughout the follow-up. In obese or overweight people, the conversion from metabolically healthy to unhealthy might increase the chances of developing diabetes as compared to those with a stable metabolic healthy state (HR: 3.70, 95% CI: 2.99-4.59), while those with persistent metabolic disorders are most likely to have diabetes (HR: 8.32, 95% CI: 7.08-9.78). Conclusions: Metabolic healthy is a transient state, and individuals converted from metabolically healthy status to unhealthy phenotypes across all BMI categories might raise the risk of diabetes.

Increased Visit-to-Visit Liver Enzyme Variability Is Associated with Incident Diabetes: A Community-Based 12-Year Prospective Cohort Study

Background: Fatty liver and/or increased liver enzyme values have been reported to be associated with incident diabetes. We sought to determine whether increased visit-to-visit liver enzyme variability is associated with incident diabetes.Methods: Study participants were recruited from the Korean Genome and Epidemiologic Study (KoGES). A total of 4,151 people aged 40 to 69 years was recruited and tested every 2 years for up to 12 years. Visit-to-visit aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) variability was evaluated in first the 6-year period through the use of various variability measurements: standard deviation (SD), average successive variability, coefficient of variation (CV), and variation independent of mean (VIM). Oral glucose tolerance test was performed at every visit.Results: During the 6-year follow‐up appointments, 13.0% (538/4,151) of people developed incident diabetes. Visit-to-visit AST variability was associated with an increased risk of diabetes independent of conventional risk factors for diabetes (hazard ratio per 1-SD increment [95% confidence interval]: 1.06 [1.00 to 1.11], 1.12 [1.04 to 1.21], and 1.13 [1.04 to 1.22] for SD, CV, and VIM, respectively; all P<0.05); however, no such associations were observed in the visit-to-visit ALT variability. According to alcohol consumption status, both AST and ALT variability were independent predictors for incident diabetes in subjects with heavy alcohol consumption; however, neither AST nor ALT variability was associated with diabetes risk in subjects who did not drink alcohol heavily.Conclusion: Visit-to-visit liver enzyme variability is an independent predictor of incident diabetes. Such association was more evident in those who consumed significant amounts of alcohol.

Trajectories of energy intake distribution and subsequent risk of hyperglycemia among Chinese adults: findings from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (1997–2018)

Aims Few studies have examined the secular trend of the energy intake distribution, and its effect on future risk of hyperglycemia. This study aims to describe trajectories of energy intake distribution over 12 years and relate them to subsequent risk of hyperglycemia over 9 years of follow-up. Methods Our study used ten waves of data from the CHNS survey, a population-based longitudinal survey in China, ongoing since 1989. We examined a cohort of adult participants who were free from diabetes but had at least three waves of dietary data from 1997 to 2009. We assessed energy intake using three consecutive 24 h recalls. We used these data to identify trajectory groups of energy intake distribution by multi-trajectory model based on energy intake proportions of breakfast, lunch, and dinner. We followed up participants for hyperglycemia, diabetes, and impaired fasting glucose for 9 years from 2009 to 2018. Outcomes were ascertained with fasting glucose, serum HbA1c, and self-report of diabetes and/or glucose-lowering medication. We estimated relative risk (RR) for hyperglycemia, diabetes, and impaired fasting glucose by identified trajectory groups using multilevel mixed-effects modified Poisson regression with robust (sandwich) estimation of variance. Gender difference was additionally examined. Results A total of 4417 participants were included. Four trajectory groups were identified, characterized and labeled by “Energy evenly distributed with steady trend group” (Group 1), “Dinner and lunch energy dominant with relatively steady trend group” (Group 2), “Dinner energy dominant with increasing trend and breakfast energy with declining trend group” (Group 3), and “breakfast and dinner energy dominant with increasing trend group” (Group 4). During 48,091 person-years, 1053 cases of incident hyperglycemia occurred, 537 cases of incident diabetes occurred, and 516 cases of impaired fasting glucose occurred. Compared with Group 1, Group 3 was associated with higher subsequent risk of incident hyperglycemia in 9 years of follow-up (RR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.02, 1.61). No association was found for incident diabetes and impaired fasting glucose. Among males, Group 3 was associated with higher risk of incident hyperglycemia in 9 years of follow-up (RR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.07, 1.94). No relationship was found in females. Conclusions Energy intake distribution characterized by over 40% of energy intake from dinner with a rising trend over years was associated with higher long-term risk of hyperglycemia in Chinese adults.

Association between Diet Quality Indices and Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a common condition whose incidence is increasing worldwide, and for which obesity and diet are important risk factors. The aim of this study was to assess the association of three diet quality scores with diabetes risk and how much of the association was mediated through body size. The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study recruited 41,513 men and women aged 40–69 years during 1990–94. At baseline, data were collected on lifestyle and diet, anthropometric measures were performed. Incident diabetes was assessed by self-report at follow-up surveys in 1994–98 and 2003–07. The associations between the dietary inflammatory index (DII®), Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) and the Alternative Healthy Eating Index—2010 and incident diabetes were assessed using Poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, socio-economic status (area based) and family history of diabetes. Data from 39,185 participants were included in the analysis and 1989 cases of diabetes were identified. Both DII and AHEI-2010 were associated with diabetes incidence, but MDS was not. In the top quintile of DII (most pro-inflammatory) vs. the least inflammatory quintile IRR was 1.49 95% CI (1.30, 1.72), p trend across quintiles <0.001. For AHEI-2010 the IRR was 0.67 (0.58, 0.78), p trend <0.001 for the healthiest vs. the least healthy quintile. Mediation analysis indicated that body size (body mass index/waist to hip ratio) mediated 35–48% of the association with incident diabetes for the AHEI and DII. Healthier diets may reduce risk of diabetes both by reducing weight gain and other mechanisms such as reducing inflammation.