scholarly journals To maximize or randomize? An experimental study of probability matching in financial decision making

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0252540
Author(s):  
Andrew W. Lo ◽  
Katherine P. Marlowe ◽  
Ruixun Zhang

Probability matching, also known as the “matching law” or Herrnstein’s Law, has long puzzled economists and psychologists because of its apparent inconsistency with basic self-interest. We conduct an experiment with real monetary payoffs in which each participant plays a computer game to guess the outcome of a binary lottery. In addition to finding strong evidence for probability matching, we document different tendencies towards randomization in different payoff environments—as predicted by models of the evolutionary origin of probability matching—after controlling for a wide range of demographic and socioeconomic variables. We also find several individual differences in the tendency to maximize or randomize, correlated with wealth and other socioeconomic factors. In particular, subjects who have taken probability and statistics classes and those who self-reported finding a pattern in the game are found to have randomized more, contrary to the common wisdom that those with better understanding of probabilistic reasoning are more likely to be rational economic maximizers. Our results provide experimental evidence that individuals—even those with experience in probability and investing—engage in randomized behavior and probability matching, underscoring the role of the environment as a driver of behavioral anomalies.

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 2099 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugeniusz Małkowski ◽  
Krzysztof Sitko ◽  
Michał Szopiński ◽  
Żaneta Gieroń ◽  
Marta Pogrzeba ◽  
...  

Hormesis, which describes the stimulatory effect of low doses of toxic substances on growth, is a well-known phenomenon in the plant and animal kingdoms. However, the mechanisms that are involved in this phenomenon are still poorly understood. We performed preliminary studies on corn coleoptile sections, which showed a positive correlation between the stimulation of growth by Cd or Pb and an increase in the auxin and H2O2 content in the coleoptile sections. Subsequently, we grew corn seedlings in hydroponic culture and tested a wide range of Cd or Pb concentrations in order to determine hormetic growth stimulation. In these seedlings the gas exchange and the chlorophyll a fluorescence, as well as the content of chlorophyll, flavonol, auxin and hydrogen peroxide, were measured. We found that during the hormetic stimulation of growth, the response of the photosynthetic apparatus to Cd and Pb differed significantly. While the application of Cd mostly caused a decrease in various photosynthetic parameters, the application of Pb stimulated some of them. Nevertheless, we discovered that the common features of the hormetic stimulation of shoot growth by heavy metals are an increase in the auxin and flavonol content and the maintenance of hydrogen peroxide at the same level as the control plants.


2014 ◽  
Vol 349 ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ted B. Flanagan

The role of the thermodynamic factor in determining the magnitude of Ficks diffusion constant, DH, for H in metals and alloys is discussed using mainly Pd and its fcc alloys as examples because data are available for some of these systems over a wide range of H contents. Procedures are given for obtaining DH*, the concentration-independent diffusion constant, from DH under permeation conditions where the H concentration varies through the membrane; which is the common situation for H2purification membranes where pupstream>> pdownstream. The role of the thermodynamic factor in H diffusion through multi-layer membranes will also be discussed.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 1043
Author(s):  
Gulab Chand Arya ◽  
Dhruv Aditya Srivastava ◽  
Eswari P. J. Pandaranayaka ◽  
Ekaterina Manasherova ◽  
Dov Bernard Prusky ◽  
...  

The necrotrophic fungus Botrytis cinerea, is considered a major cause of postharvest losses in a wide range of crops. The common fungal extracellular membrane protein (CFEM), containing a conserved eight-cysteine pattern, was found exclusively in fungi. Previous studies in phytopathogenic fungi have demonstrated the role of membrane-bound and secreted CFEM-containing proteins in different aspects of fungal virulence. However, non-G protein-coupled receptor (non-GPCR) membrane CFEM proteins have not been studied yet in phytopathogenic fungi. In the present study, we have identified a non-GPCR membrane-bound CFEM-containing protein, Bcin07g03260, in the B. cinerea genome, and generated deletion mutants, ΔCFEM-Bcin07g03260, to study its potential role in physiology and virulence. Three independent ΔCFEM-Bcin07g03260 mutants showed significantly reduced progression of a necrotic lesion on tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) leaves. Further analysis of the mutants revealed significant reduction (approximately 20–30%) in conidial germination and consequent germ tube elongation compared with the WT. Our data complements a previous study of secreted ΔCFEM1 mutants of B. cinerea that showed reduced progression of necrotic lesions on leaves, without effect on germination. Considering various functions identified for CFEM proteins in fungal virulence, our work illustrates a potential new role for a non-GPCR membrane CFEM in pathogenic fungi to control virulence in the fungus B. cinerea.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gene Heyman ◽  
Sebastian Moncaleano

The matching law describes the allocation of behavior over a wide range of settings, including laboratory experimental chambers, forest foraging patches, sports arenas, and board games. Interestingly, matching persists in settings in which economic analyses predict quite different distributions of behavior (and it also differs systematically from “probability matching”). We tested whether the matching law also describes the allocation of covert cognitive processes. Sixty-four participants viewed two, small, vertically arranged adjacent stimuli that projected an image that fit within the fovea. A trial-version of the reward contingencies used in matching law experiments determined which stimulus was the target. The amount of time the stimuli were available was tailored to each subject so that they were not able to make use of the information in both stimuli even though an eye-tracking experiment confirmed that they saw both. The implication of this restriction is that subjects had to decide which stimulus to attend to prior to each trial. The only available objective basis for this decision was the relative frequencies that a stimulus was the target. Although shifts in attention were covert, and the procedure did not provide explicit reinforcers, the matching law equation described the division of attention between two small, briefly presented stimuli as accurately as it describes the allocation of key pecking between two illuminated disks in hungry pigeons.


2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 71-93
Author(s):  
Ivan Mladenovic

Someone might vote for an option that on his or her view best promotes his or her self-interest. But, someone might vote for an option that promotes what he or she sees as a common good. The point is that there is no necessity here. Empirically oriented investigations showed that people vote both for self-centered and prosocial reasons. On the standard account of deliberative democracy public discussion is oriented towards achieving the common good. In this paper I shall argue that there is no necessity in supposing that public deliberation will lead to consensus over the common good. If consensus over the common good is neither realistic, nor desirable feature of public deliberation, then the most that practically oriented deliberative democrats might hope for is an open debate which may influence post-deliberative voting. Or so I shall argue. On this account, deliberative democracy makes more probable that outcome of the voting procedure will reflect concerns over the common good. According to this conception the appeal to selfinterest is not ex hypothesi excluded. The role of public deliberation is to bring to the fore both self-centered and prosocial concerns, and eventually to show why prosocial concerns should override private concerns. But there is no necessity here. The most important thing is to have sound procedure for weighting the reasons that speak both for and against self-interested concerns.


Author(s):  
A. Zare Zardiny ◽  
F. Hakimpour

Abstract. Due to the importance of spatial data in decision making and the cost of collecting these data, in recent years various communities have collaborated on spatial data collection. In these communities some expert and non-expert volunteers record their observations of a region in order to create a map. In these activities one of the most effective tools for recording observations is the sketch map. Due to ease of use and no need to comply with the common rules in Geospatial Information Systems, sketch maps can be drawn by a wide range of people. Because these maps are easy to use and following the GIS rules is not required, sketch maps can be drawn by a wide range of people. Although several studies have focused on raising the level of participation of ordinary people in the field of mapping, less attention has been given to the role of kids as an important part of the society. Hence, this paper including a field study examines the effect of collective spatial cognition of kids in a community mapping activity. For this purpose, the sketches drawn by some school kids are matched and then integrated together, and finally, the output of this process is compared with available metric maps. The results of this study show that despite the stringent conditions and the low age of the participants, the results have been beyond expectations. In this study, kids have provided several points of interest as well as more descriptive information of the region compared to the available data downloaded from OpenStreetMap and Google Maps. Therefore, the output of this study can be used to enrich the available metric map.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Owen William Tomlinson ◽  
James Shelley ◽  
Sarah Denford ◽  
Alan R Barker ◽  
Patrick J Oades ◽  
...  

Rationale, aims and objectives: Physical activity (PA) and exercise are important in maintaining and improving health and wellbeing in people with cystic fibrosis (CF) and measures of exercise capacity are useful outcomes in monitoring disease progression. The roles and responsibilities of CF multi-disciplinary team (MDT) members in supporting PA and exercise have yet to be fully defined. This communication reports on national meetings of CF MDT staff whose interest is to improve and standardise person-centered exercise provision and testing as part of routine CF care. We also introduce the role of the physiotherapy technician in supporting PA interventions.Meetings: The two meetings covered a range of presentations, discussions and workshops, focusing on the role of exercise and PA in CF management. Forty people from 15 NHS Hospital Trusts and 3 universities were asked to provide feedback via a questionnaire.Results: The common roles and responsibilities of clinical staff involved in exercise testing and prescription are described, with a wide range of duties identified. In addition, physiotherapists were reported as the main MDT member responsible for exercise provision. The majority of teams reported discussing exercise at every clinical visit (57%) and felt confident in discussing exercise with patients (67%).Conclusions: While this report highlights the current provision of exercise in CF MDTs, it also provides insight into the resources MDTs may require in order to enhance the profile of exercise within CF services, including enhanced training, guidelines and standardised clinical roles.


Author(s):  
Jonna Nyman

Chapter 4 challenges these common sense energy security practices by looking at the space for contestation. It reverses the focus to examine the role of power and vested interests in establishing the common sense in the United States. It then looks at how, despite this, energy security remains contested, surveying alternative visions of energy security forwarded. It highlights the range of actors and organizations which speak energy security differently, including, at times, voices within the establishment. This is used to destabilize the common sense by illustrating that energy security not only can be done differently, but that a wide range of actors already present a range of alternatives.


2006 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trisha Olson

Here the worldling now all bound in fetters liesstarts to fear his God, his tears flow from his eyesJustice comes along, with gallows, wheel and sword:God tells the pious man to enter Heaven's door.Across medieval Western Europe, those who committed serious wrongs, such as homicide, arson, treason, and rape were subject to a wide range of capital punishments that were seemingly brutal, frequently bloody, and at times spectacular. Grisly images of an executioner dismembering a condemned's limbs from his torso, smashing his chest cavity, gouging his eyes, or piercing his body with hot pokers are the common stuff of scaffold art in the high Middle Ages. Such images attest to the critical role of pain in medieval capital punishment. Whereas in our day all attempts are made to render penal death painless, in the high and late Middle Ages, the tie between pain and death is not only tolerated but, at times, purposefully exacerbated.


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