scholarly journals Investigation of volatility and spillover in foreign ex-change return in Indian Chinese & Malaysian market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 150
Author(s):  
Amritkant Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

In this paper it is tried to make the comparison the foreign exchange return volatility in the three emerging economies of Asia. It is also endeavored to investigate the return co-movement and the volatility spillover between the foreign exchange markets of India, China and Malaysia with reference of US dollar, Indian Rupees, Chinese Yuan and Malaysian Ringgit in each other foreign exchange market to. The daily data have collected from Federal Reserve data base from April 2012 to March 2017. For analysis MGARCH model, the GARCH DCC as well as VAR model applied. The empirical result of volatility spillover effect shows that in Indian and Malaysian foreign exchange market the US dollar seems as shock transmitter. It also shows that the influence of US dollar in Chinese foreign exchange market is very low as compare to the Indian and Malaysian exchange rate market. In Chinese market Malaysian ringgit is dominant currency and it transmits the shocks to the US dollar. The conditional volatility result shows that among all the foreign exchange market, Indian market has high volatility return of foreign currency as compare to other market.

Optimistic and pessimistic economic sentiments and US Dollar exchange rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Kumari ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput ◽  
Rana Yassir Hussain ◽  
Jahanzeb Marwat ◽  
Haroon Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the affiliation of various proxies of economic sentiments and the US Dollar exchange rate, mainly focusing on the real effective exchange rate of USD pairing with three other major currencies (USDEUR, USDGBP, and USDCAD). The study has employed Google Trends data of economy optimistic and pessimistic sentiments index and survey-based economy sentiments data on monthly basis from January 2004 to December 2018. The study engaged Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of economy-related sentiments and macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate. The results from the study found that Economy Optimistic Sentiments Index (EOSI) and Economy Pessimistic Sentiments Index (EPSI) appreciate and depreciate the US Dollar exchange rate in the short-run, respectively. Our sentiment measures are robust to survey-based Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MSCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and various macroeconomic factors. The MSCI and CCI sentiments show a long-term impact on the foreign exchange market. This study implies that economic sentiments play a vital role in the foreign exchange market and it is essential to consider behavioral aspects when modeling the exchange rate movements.

scholarly journals Analysis of the development of the foreign exchange market in the Russian Federation

2021 ◽  
pp. 149-161
Author(s):  
Alexander S. Kokin Kokin ◽  
Vladimir A. Odinokov Odinokov ◽  
Valentina N. Shchepetova Shchepetova
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Main Factors

The article focuses on the financial foreign exchange market, the development and condition of which determines the financial well-being of most commercial enterprises of the Russian Federation.  The purpose of the research is to give review of the Russian foreign exchange market’ development and situation. The main factors influencing the level of the exchange rate of foreign currencies expressed in national currency are considered. The domestic and international foreign exchange market of Russia for the period 2016-2020 is analyzed. The dynamics of conversion operations, the structure of participants in the domestic foreign exchange market by type of currency. The results of trading on the foreign exchange market, futures and options as a currency instrument, the share of options and futures on the futures market of the Russian Federation, as well as the dynamics of the US dollar against the ruble and exchange trading indicators for the period from 2016 to 2020. The conditions, results and prospects of the development of the financial foreign exchange market of the Russian Federation are discussed in this  article

scholarly journals Emerging Market Currency Excess Returns

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 85-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Gilmore ◽  
Fumio Hayashi
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Forward Premium ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Portfolio Return

We consider the excess return from 20 internationally tradable emerging market (EM) currencies against the US dollar. It has two contributions. First, we document stylized facts about EM currencies. EM currencies have provided significant equity-like excess returns against major currencies, but with low volatility. Picking EM currencies with a relatively high forward premium raises the portfolio return substantially. Second, our calculation incorporates institutional features of the foreign exchange market, such as lags in settling spot contracts, FX swaps, and bid/offer spreads. Transaction costs arising from bid/offer spreads are less than one-fifth of what is typically presumed in the literature. (JEL C58, F31, G15)

scholarly journals HEDGING CURRENCY RISKS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS USING THE OPPORTUNITIES OF THE INTERNATIONAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Liegostaieva
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
International Business ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Currency Risk ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Current Value ◽  
Financial Result

The article is devoted to the study of currency risk hedging in international business. The article notes that the international foreign exchange market is the largest and fastest growing of all world markets. The characteristic features of the international currency market are substantiated and offered. It is also noted that foreign exchange transactions provide economic ties between participants located on different sides of state borders: settlements between firms from different countries for the supply of goods and services, foreign investment, international tourism and business travel. It is determined that hedging of currency risks is the protection of funds from the unfavorable movement of exchange rates, and is carried out in fixing the current value of funds by concluding an agreement on the foreign exchange market. When hedging, the risk of exchange rate changes disappears, and this makes it possible to forecast the company's activities and see the financial result, which is not distorted by exchange rate fluctuations, which will allow you to determine product prices, calculate profits, etc. The main difference between hedging and other types of transactions is that its purpose is not to generate additional profits, but to reduce the risk of potential losses, as risk reduction is almost always necessary to pay, hedging, of course, involves additional costs. Hedging is a way to improve business planning. An enterprise wishing to use this service shall pledge the specified amount, from which losses on its positions will be deducted. In today's conditions, thanks to the foreign exchange market, there is a very reliable way to hedge currency risk. This method is to fix the current value of funds by concluding agreements in this market. With hedging, the company eliminates the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and this allows you to forecast activities and see the financial result, which is not changed by exchange rate fluctuations. Allows you to pre-determine product prices, determine profits, etc. Thus, the principle of hedging in international business is to open a currency position in a foreign currency account for future transactions to convert funds.

‘Indian Stock Market Volatility’: A Study of Inter-linkages and Spillover Effects

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2_suppl) ◽  
pp. S183-S212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suparna Nandy (Pal) ◽  
Arup Kr. Chattopadhyay
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Asymmetric Volatility ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
Domestic Stock

The article attempts to examine interdependence between Indian stock market and other domestic financial markets, namely, foreign exchange market, bullion market, money market, and also Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) trade and foreign stock markets comprising one regional stock market represented by Nikkei of Japan and other stock market for the rest of the world represented by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 of the USA. Attempts are also made to examine asymmetric volatility spillover, first, between the Indian stock market and other domestic financial markets and second, between the Indian stock market and global stock markets (represented by Nikkei and S&P 500) along with the foreign exchange market. To measure linear interdependence among multiple time series of financial markets multivariate Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition techniques are used. For estima-ting the volatility spillover among the aforesaid markets Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Multivriate-Threshold Autoregressive Condi-tional Heteroscedastic (DCC-MV-TARCH) (1, 1) model is applied on daily data for a quite long period of time from 01 April 1996 to 31 March 2012. The results of multi­variate VAR analysis, Granger causality test, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response function estimation establish significant interdependence between domestic stock market and different other financial markets in India and abroad. The results of DCC-MV-TARCH (1, 1) model estimation further show signi- ficant asymmetric volatility spillover between the domestic stock market and the foreign exchange market and also from the domestic stock market to bullion market and changes in gross volume of FII trade. We also find (a) both way asymmetric volatility spillover between the domestic stock market and the Asian stock market and (b) its unidirectional movement from the world stock market to the domestic stock market. The results of the study may help market regulators in setting regulatory policies considering the inter-linkages and pattern of volatility spillovers across different financial markets. JEL Classification: G15, G17

scholarly journals The equilibrium model of demand and supply at the Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market: disclosure of problematic aspects

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 31-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anzhela Kuznyetsova ◽  
Nataliia Misiats ◽  
Olha Klishchuk
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Gap Analysis ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The One

This article is devoted to building of the equilibrium model between demand and supply on foreign currency at the Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (non-cash share). The authors discussed that appeared trade-offs are a product of established current foreign arrangement, administrative measures provided by the National Bank of Ukraine and range of fundamental variables, which are traditionally significant for Ukrainian economy. By means of FAVAR modeling model of demand and supply equlibrium on non-cash foreign currency was built on empirical data of Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market, splitted into the periods, proposed by the authors. Next, it was discussed disconnection properties in the model and shown log-linearized specification of the one. The efficiency of fulfillment hypothesis on decointegrating of the fundamental variables' time series has been provided in form of critical statistics values. Also, instrument of GAP analysis of deviation from equilibrium state was proposed and the further analysis of a regulation style of monetary authority was provided. In conclusion, it was summarized that increased share of the cash out of the banks has significantly jeopardized the price stability in Ukraine and the NBU interventions would become more effective if the flexible foreign exchange rate will be accompanied with flexible regime of inflation targeting.

scholarly journals Interdependence among ASEAN 5 in Foreign Exchange Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Yunita Astanti Unlinnuha
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Positive Response ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Auto Regression

This paper examines the relationship between ASEAN-5 foreign exchange market and US Dollar in last 5 years. The data used is the currency of ASEAN-5 countries that are Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The data was analyzed using VAR (Vector Auto Regression). Among ASEAN 5, there are interdepence relationship in foreign exchange market. The strongest interdepence relationship are showed between Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia, while Phillipines and Thailand have less influence toward others. Foreign exchange market among ASEAN 5 shows positive response which has been proven by Granger Causality test.

scholarly journals ACQUAINTANCE TO FOREX FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

2020 ◽  
pp. 174-180
Author(s):  
O. Zaitsev ◽  
T. Dvorianova
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Professional Training ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
Currency Market ◽  
Financial Transactions

The article draws attention to the steady growth of the general trend of direct participation of individuals in financial transactions using electronic platforms. In particular, the article notes the increased interest in participating in operations in the Forex currency market. It is emphasized that relatively technically easy access to participation in financial transactions through the use of electronic platforms is currently a potential threat to financial security for the funds of participants in such transactions. This is a lack of professional training of most novice traders who voluntarily become participants in financial transactions. It is emphasized that stock exchange transactions on stock markets, purchase and sale of currency on electronic platforms, transactions with gold, etc. require, along with general, also special knowledge on certain specific areas of economic development and financial relations. Also, psychological and behavioral factors begin to "work" in such relationships. It is noted that only from the beginning of 2019 in Ukraine at the legislative level began a systematic regulation of the structure of the foreign exchange market and the procedure for trading in foreign currency. The article states that it is time to pay attention to digitalized trading activities from a professional point of view and start teaching in educational institutions the relevant disciplines for training and acquiring students' general skills in trade and financial transactions on electronic platforms. From this point of view, the article provides an introductory review of the Forex currency market, outlines the principles of its operation, pays more attention to trading strategies. As a result, the following conclusions are made that, first, the foreign exchange market is highly profitable provided that its trends are mastered; secondly, the foreign exchange market is high risk; it is necessary to understand not only in many terms, but, especially, in processes and situations in the financial-globalized world to confidently use charts of change of cost of currencies for profit; thirdly, there are many different strategies that can be used successfully in the currency market, from the simplest - for amateurs, to more complex - for experienced traders, but none of them will fit perfectly for a particular psychotype, professional level and amount of time a person - trader can pay trade. Of particular value, according to the authors, is the following conclusion: a trader creates his own strategy, which provides a greater likelihood of earnings in the international Forex market. Currency trader is a creative activity, but an activity based on mastering a large base of professional knowledge.

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