Resilience in Times of Economic Boom and Bust

2021 ◽  
pp. 167-212
Keyword(s):  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Economic Boom

scholarly journals DEMAND UNCERTAINTY, INVENTORY AND BUSINESS CYCLES

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 664-683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenichi Tamegawa
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Demand Uncertainty ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Economic Boom

This paper introduces demand uncertainty and inventory into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We assume that firms must predict demand before production. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of several exogenous shocks on the model economy in our settings. A numerical simulation using our model shows the following results. When shocks that raise expected demand are given, inventory stocks increase because output exceeds demand. In the next period, firms release the inventory stock, reducing excess stock and decreasing output. Thus, inventory adjustment causes recession. This result implies that cyclical movement (economic boom and bust) continues until variables return to the steady state. Furthermore, we confirm that our model can reproduce stylized facts for inventory movements and enhance empirical fit relative to the model without inventory.

EXPECTATION ERRORS IN CREDIT MARKET AND BUSINESS CYCLES

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1359-1380
Author(s):  
Kenichi Tamegawa ◽  
Shin Fukuda
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Credit Market ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
Economic Boom

This study demonstrates how expectation errors in a credit market generate economic fluctuations. To this end, we employ simulation analysis using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our model includes two building blocks that are not included in the standard models: the banking sector and matching friction in the labor market. By introducing the banking sector, we can confirm that if economic agents fallaciously expect a rise in future asset prices, such expectations will cause an economic boom and bust. The variation of this fluctuation is quite large and the recession short-lived, but these drawbacks can be avoided by adding matching friction.

Self-Employment and Home Ownership after the Enterprise Culture

1998 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Burrows ◽  
Janet Ford
Keyword(s):  
Home Ownership ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
The Self ◽  
Enterprise Culture ◽  
Self Employment ◽  
Economic Recessions ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Small Business Growth ◽  
Economic Boom ◽  
The Relationship

This paper examines the relationship between patterns of self-employment and patterns of home ownership in England in the 1990s. It does this via a secondary analysis of the Survey of English Housing. It argues that for many of the self-employed both the housing boom and the economic boom of the 1980s and the housing and economic recessions of the 1990s have been mutually constitutive. The growth and sustainability of self-employment and of home ownership are two sides of the same socio-political coin. In the 1980s they both boomed and in the early 1990s they both bust. For the future, after the enterprise culture, the two forces are likely to pull in opposite directions, with increasing reliance on self-employment but with housing constituting both a constraint and a risk. Owner occupation is unlikely to offer the means for small business growth that it did in the 1980s, but equally, will make financial demands that the self-employed may find hard to meet. The extremes of boom and bust may be avoided towards 2000, but the livelihoods and homes of self-employed mortgagors are still likely to be precarious.

Uneven development, suburban futures and the urban region: The case of an Irish ‘sustainable new town’

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 140-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Lawton
Keyword(s):  
Urban Development ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
Urban Region ◽  
New Town ◽  
Urban City ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Urban Transformations ◽  
Economic Boom ◽  
Private Actors ◽  
Political Economic

This paper seeks to situate narratives of sustainable urban development within the wider context of political economic urban transformations shaping urban city regions. In drawing upon the development of a master-planned sustainable development called Adamstown, situated on the outskirts of Dublin, Ireland, the paper will unpack the relationship between ideals of urban and suburban sustainability within the context of Ireland’s recent economic boom and bust, along with its repackaging via national and international actors. The paper demonstrates the shortcomings of the ideal of sustainability in the context of neoliberal urban development dominated by private actors, and facilitated by state-led governance mechanisms. It argues that while the official invocation of urban sustainable communities attempts to highlight them as ‘different’ and ‘unique’, they remain inextricably intertwined with wider urban regional processes, which are themselves becoming increasingly internationalized in terms of reality.

Bankers and Bolsheviks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Malik
Keyword(s):  
International Finance ◽  
Cultural Influences ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Competitive Dynamics ◽  
Russian Revolution ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
Modern Age ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Political Act ◽  
Economic Boom

Following an unprecedented economic boom fed by foreign investment, the Russian Revolution triggered the worst sovereign default in history. This book tells the dramatic story of this boom and bust, chronicling the forgotten experiences of leading financiers of the age. Shedding critical new light on the decision making of the powerful personalities who acted as the gatekeepers of international finance, the book explains how they channeled foreign capital into Russia in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. While economists have long relied on quantitative analysis to grapple with questions relating to the drivers of cross-border capital flows, this book adopts an historical approach, drawing on banking and government archives in four countries. It provides rare insights into the thinking of influential figures in world finance as they sought to navigate one of the most challenging and lucrative markets of the first modern age of globalization. The book reveals how a complex web of factors—from government interventions to competitive dynamics and cultural influences—drove a large inflow of capital during this tumultuous period in world history. The book demonstrates how the realms of finance and politics—of bankers and Bolsheviks—grew increasingly intertwined, and how investing in Russia became a political act with unforeseen repercussions.

scholarly journals Resilience in Times of Economic Boom and Bust: A Narrative Study of a Rural Population Dependent upon the Oil and Gas Industry

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamideh Mahdiani ◽  
Jan Höltge ◽  
Linda Theron ◽  
Michael Ungar
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Meaning Making ◽  
Economic Change ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Small Towns ◽  
Family Interactions ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Economic Boom

Abstract How do residents of small towns that depend on oil and gas extraction or processing industries withstand economic boom and bust cycles? To answer this question, this article reports on a narrative analysis of residents’ life stories gathered from 37 adults of a small town on the Canadian prairies dependent on the oil and gas industry, employing the theories of narrative inquiry and narrative identity. Participants aged 30 to 76 were interviewed and their experiences of living in an unstable economy that is dependent mostly on a single resource extraction industry were explored. Specifically, we asked participants about the effect of economic change on factors related to resilience like family interactions, work choices, educational pathways, and the quality of their social lives. Our analysis of adult narratives looked for patterns in the relationship between risk exposure, promotive and protective factors at multiple systemic levels (individual, relational, cultural), and functional outcomes such as individual coping, community cohesion, and social and economic sustainability. Results show that a strong identity, in particular expressions of personal agency, communion, and engagement in meaning making are contributing factors to adult resilience in a context of economic change. Our results also highlight how positive attitudes towards a better future may inadvertently undermine the need for residents of oil and gas-dependent towns to commit to economic diversification and other potential resilience-promoting strategies.

Explaining the Recent Migration Trends of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

1998 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. 1797-1814 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Ishikawa ◽  
A J Fielding
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Urban System ◽  
World City ◽  
Tokyo Metropolitan ◽  
Tokyo Metropolitan Area ◽  
Migration System ◽  
Boom And Bust ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Economic Boom ◽  
First Time

The year 1994 was a very significant year for the Japanese urban system. In that year the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA), which had enjoyed a net inflow of interregional migrants since the 1950s, recorded a net outflow for the first time. What factors gave rise to such a remarkable migration change for the area? The results from a set of time-series analyses lead the authors to conclude that, as far as the study period (1979–92) as a whole is concerned, the changing migration pattern of the TMA arose from factors closely related to Tokyo's transformation into a world city (specifically in terms of industrial restructuring and changes in residential land prices) and from cycles of economic boom and bust. However, it was found that the change to world city was more important than the economic cycle. Such findings suggest that the Japanese migration system experienced structural change during the 1980s and entered a new phase in the 1990s.

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