scholarly journals Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in the Anthropocene / Chemia Atmosferyczna I Klimat W Antropocenie

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 9-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J. Crutzen ◽  
Stanisław Wacławek

Abstract Humankind actions are exerting increasing effect on the environment on all scales, in a lot of ways overcoming natural processes. During the last 100 years human population went up from little more than one to six billion and economic activity increased nearly ten times between 1950 and the present time. In the last few decades of the twentieth century, anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbon release have led to a dramatic decrease in levels of stratospheric ozone, creating ozone hole over the Antarctic, as a result UV-B radiation from the sun increased, leading for example to enhanced risk of skin cancer. Releasing more of a greenhouse gases by mankind, such as CO2, CH4, NOx to the atmosphere increases the greenhouse effect. Even if emission increase has held back, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations would continue to raise and remain high for hundreds of years, thus warming Earth’s climate. Warming temperatures contribute to sea level growth by melting mountain glaciers and ice caps, because of these portions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt or flow into the ocean. Ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets could contribute an additional 19-58 centimeters of sea level rise, hinge on how the ice sheets react. Taking into account these and many other major and still growing footprints of human activities on earth and atmosphere without any doubt we can conclude that we are living in new geological epoch named by P. Crutzen and E. Stoermer in 2000 - “Anthropocene”. For the benefit of our children and their future, we must do more to struggle climate changes that have had occurred gradually over the last century.

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 459-478
Author(s):  
Martim Mas e Braga ◽  
Jorge Bernales ◽  
Matthias Prange ◽  
Arjen P. Stroeven ◽  
Irina Rogozhina

Abstract. Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0–8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7–8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 ∘C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martim Mas e Braga ◽  
Jorge Bernales ◽  
Matthias Prange ◽  
Arjen P. Stroeven ◽  
Irina Rogozhina

<p><span><span>The Marine Isotope Substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial (425 – 395 thousand years before present) is a useful analogue to climate conditions that can be expected in the near future, and can provide insights on the natural response of the Antarctic ice sheets to a moderate, yet long lasting warming period. However, its response to the warming of MIS11c and consequent contribution to global sea level rise still remains unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice-sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three ice core and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. We identify a tipping point beyond which oceanic warming becomes the dominant forcing of ice-sheet retreat, and where collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is attained when a threshold of 0.4 </span></span><sup><span><span>o</span></span></sup><span><span>C oceanic warming relative to Pre-Industrial levels is sustained for at least 4 thousand years. Conversely, its eastern counterpart remains relatively stable, as it is mostly grounded above sea level. Our results suggest a total sea level contribution from the East and West Antarctic ice sheets of 4.0 – 8.2 m during MIS11c. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea-level reconstructions, this range is reduced to 6.7 – 8.2 m, and mostly reflects uncertainties regarding the initial configuration of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. </span></span></p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martim Mas e Braga ◽  
Jorge Bernales ◽  
Matthias Prange ◽  
Arjen P. Stroeven ◽  
Irina Rogozhina

Abstract. Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to past climate conditions similar to the present day can provide important insights for understanding its current changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. The Marine Isotope Substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial is one of the best candidates for an in-depth analysis given that at its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. However, Antarctic ice core data indicate that although MIS11c CO2 levels were close to Pre Industrial, warmer-than-present temperatures (of about 2 °C) lasted for much longer than during other interglacials. Since the global mean sea level is thought to have been 6‐13 m higher than today, there should have been some contribution from Antarctica. While substantial work has been conducted regarding the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the MIS11c climate, which is believed to have contributed with 3.9–7.0 m to global sea level, both configurations of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain poorly constrained. We use a numerical ice-sheet model to shed light on the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to MIS11c climate conditions obtained from a combination of a suite of Antarctic ice cores and the LR04 global stack of deep-sea sediment records and climate model outputs, while assessing the model sensitivity to the uncertainties in sea level reconstructions, ice sheet initial configuration, and multi-centennial climate variability. We found that the regional climate signal of the MIS11c peak warming in Antarctica captured by the ice core records is necessary for the recorded sea level highstand to be reproduced, and that warming length was more important than magnitude. However, there is a threshold for a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse that lies within an envelope of 1.6 and 2.1 °C warmer-than-pre-industrial regional climate conditions. Sea level forcing and multi-centennial variability were found to have played virtually no role in driving ice sheet contraction, but the choice of initial configuration of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet provided a large source of uncertainty in the quantification of MIS11c Antarctic peak sea level contribution, which falls between 6.4 and 8.8 m.


2009 ◽  
Vol 36 (7) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Regine Hock ◽  
Mattias de Woul ◽  
Valentina Radić ◽  
Mark Dyurgerov

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2195-2213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Marie-France Loutre ◽  
Thierry Fichefet

Abstract. As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG,  ∼  130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate–ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet–climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.


1992 ◽  
Vol 338 (1285) ◽  
pp. 235-242 ◽  

The prediction of short-term (100 year) changes in the mass balance of ice sheets and longer-term (1000 years) variations in their ice volumes is important for a range of climatic and environmental models. The Antarctic ice sheet contains between 24 M km 3 and 29 M km 3 of ice, equivalent to a eustatic sea level change of between 60m and 72m. The annual surface accumulation is estimated to be of the order of 2200 Gtonnes, equivalent to a sea level change of 6 mm a -1 . Analysis of the present-day accumulation regime of Antarctica indicates that about 25% ( ca. 500 Gt a -1 ) of snowfall occurs in the Antarctic Peninsula region with an area of only 6.8% of the continent. To date most models have focused upon solving predictive algorithms for the climate-sensitivity of the ice sheet, and assume: (i) surface mass balance is equivalent to accumulation (i.e. no melting, evaporation or deflation); (ii) percentage change in accumulation is proportional to change in saturation mixing ratio above the surface inversion layer; and (iii) there is a linear relation between mean annual surface air tem perature and saturation mixing ratio. For the A ntarctic Peninsula with mountainous terrain containing ice caps, outlet glaciers, valley glaciers and ice shelves, where there can be significant ablation at low levels and distinct climatic regimes, models of the climate response must be more complex. In addition, owing to the high accumulation and flow rates, even short- to medium -term predictions must take account of ice dynamics. Relationships are derived for the mass balance sensitivity and, using a model developed by Hindmarsh, the transient effects of ice dynamics are estimated. It is suggested that for a 2°C rise in mean annual surface tem perature over 40 years, ablation in the A ntarctic Peninsula region would contribute at least 1.0 mm to sea level rise, offsetting the fall of 0.5 mm contributed by increased accum ulation.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martim Mas e Braga ◽  
Jorge Bernales ◽  
Matthias Prange ◽  
Arjen P. Stroeven ◽  
Irina Rogozhina

1996 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 187-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atsumu Ohmura ◽  
Martin Wild ◽  
Lennart Bengtsson

A high-resolution GCM ECHAM3 T106 was used to simulate the climates of the present and of the future under doubled CO2The ECHAM3 T106 was integrated for an equivalent time of 5 years (1) with the observed SST of the 1980s and (2) with the SST for the 2 × CO2climate generated from the ECHAM1 T21 coupled transient experiment. The main motivation for using the GCM to simulate the mass balance is the level of skill in simulating precipitation and accumulation recently achieved in the high-resolution GCM experiment. The ablation is computed, based on the GCM internal surface fluxes and the temperature/ablation relationship formulated on the Greenland field data. The two ice sheets show very different reactions towards doubling the CO2. As the decrease in accumulation and the increase in ablation in Greenland cause an annual mean specific mass balance of −225 mm (eq. −390 km3), the increase in accumulation and virtually non-melt conditions in Antarctica result in a mean annual specific mass balance of + 23 mm (eq. + 325 km3). The sum of the mass balance on both ice sheets is equivalent to the annual sea-level rise of 0.2 mm. This experiment shows that other mechanisms for sea-level change, such as the thermal expansion of the sea water and the melt of small mountain glaciers, will remain important in the coming century.


1987 ◽  
Vol 33 (S1) ◽  
pp. 33-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon de Q. Robin ◽  
Charles Swithinbank

AbstractOver the past 50 years, ideas relating to the physical features and dynamics of ice sheets have evolved materially, primarily due to modern technological advances in the acquisition of basic data. This paper therefore does not review contemporary knowledge but records how our perception of ice sheets has changed with time. Rather than dealing with individual contributions to the understanding of ice sheets, major topics and concepts are considered against a background of earlier ideas and theories.Both the form and extent of the surface features of ice sheets have been defined more clearly by the relatively recent use of satellite studies (imagery and altimetry). In an analogous way, radio echo-sounding has enabled the accurate calculation of ice thicknesses and the mapping of the sub-ice bedrock contours, and hence estimation of the ice volume. Studies on the dynamics of ice sheets have been enhanced by bore-hole sampling of deep ice and the determination of ice-temperature distributions, coupled with measurements of mass balance and both surface and internal ice movement. Internal deformation of ice sheets, surging, and various flow theories are considered in relation to recent modelling studies. Global geophysics inevitably includes the role of ice sheets, and therefore climatological studies and new atmospheric chemistry data, together with information on the distribution of meteorites on the Antarctic ice sheet, are considered critically.Modern concepts of the evolution of ice sheets have substantially modified earlier ideas of the glacial geologists and have explained much that had previously mystified them.


2014 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 724-741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stewart S.R. Jamieson ◽  
Chris R. Stokes ◽  
Neil Ross ◽  
David M. Rippin ◽  
Robert G. Bingham ◽  
...  

AbstractIn 1976, David Sugden and Brian John developed a classification for Antarctic landscapes of glacial erosion based upon exposed and eroded coastal topography, providing insight into the past glacial dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets. We extend this classification to cover the continental interior of Antarctica by analysing the hypsometry of the subglacial landscape using a recently released dataset of bed topography (BEDMAP2). We used the existing classification as a basis for first developing a low-resolution description of landscape evolution under the ice sheet before building a more detailed classification of patterns of glacial erosion. Our key finding is that a more widespread distribution of ancient, preserved alpine landscapes may survive beneath the Antarctic ice sheets than has been previously recognized. Furthermore, the findings suggest that landscapes of selective erosion exist further inland than might be expected, and may reflect the presence of thinner, less extensive ice in the past. Much of the selective nature of erosion may be controlled by pre-glacial topography, and especially by the large-scale tectonic structure and fluvial valley network. The hypotheses of landscape evolution presented here can be tested by future surveys of the Antarctic ice sheet bed.


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