An intelligent approach towards very short-term load forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Uttamarani Pati ◽  
Papia Ray ◽  
Arvind R. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Spinning Reserve ◽  
Feature Selection Technique ◽  
Selection Technique ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Abstract Very short term load forecasting (VSTLF) plays a pivotal role in helping the utility workers make proper decisions regarding generation scheduling, size of spinning reserve, and maintaining equilibrium between the power generated by the utility to fulfil the load demand. However, the development of an effective VSTLF model is challenging in gathering noisy real-time data and complicates features found in load demand variations from time to time. A hybrid approach for VSTLF using an incomplete fuzzy decision system (IFDS) combined with a genetic algorithm (GA) based feature selection technique for load forecasting in an hour ahead format is proposed in this research work. This proposed work aims to determine the load features and eliminate redundant features to form a less complex forecasting model. The proposed method considers the time of the day, temperature, humidity, and dew point as inputs and generates output as forecasted load. The input data and historical load data are collected from the Northern Regional Load Dispatch Centre (NRLDC) New Delhi for December 2009, January 2010 and February 2010. For validation of proposed method efficacy, it’s performance is further compared with other conventional AI techniques like ANN and ANFIS, which are integrated with genetic algorithm-based feature selection technique to boost their performance. These techniques’ accuracy is tested through their mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) value. Compared to other conventional AI techniques and other methods provided through previous studies, the proposed method is found to have acceptable accuracy for 1 h ahead of electrical load forecasting.

An improved short term load forecasting with ranker based feature selection technique

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 6783-6800
Author(s):  
Siva Sankari Subbiah ◽  
Jayakumar Chinnappan
Keyword(s):  
Feature Selection ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Feature Selection Technique ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Utility Companies ◽  
Electricity Load

The load forecasting is the significant task carried out by the electricity providing utility companies for estimating the future electricity load. The proper planning, scheduling, functioning, and maintenance of the power system rely on the accurate forecasting of the electricity load. In this paper, the clustering-based filter feature selection is proposed for assisting the forecasting models in improving the short term load forecasting performance. The Recurrent Neural Network based Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) is developed for forecasting the short term load and compared against Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Basis Function (RBF), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF). The performance of the forecasting model is improved by reducing the curse of dimensionality using filter feature selection such as Fast Correlation Based Filter (FCBF), Mutual Information (MI), and RReliefF. The clustering is utilized to group the similar load patterns and eliminate the outliers. The feature selection identifies the relevant features related to the load by taking samples from each cluster. To show the generality, the proposed model is experimented by using two different datasets from European countries. The result shows that the forecasting models with selected features produce better performance especially the LSTM with RReliefF outperformed other models.

scholarly journals Multi-Step Ahead Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Hybrid Feature Selection and Improved Long Short-Term Memory Network

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 4121
Author(s):  
Shaoqian Pei ◽  
Hui Qin ◽  
Liqiang Yao ◽  
Yongqi Liu ◽  
Chao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Feature Selection ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting ◽  
Memory Network ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays an important role in the economic dispatch of power systems. Obtaining accurate short-term load can greatly improve the safety and economy of a power grid operation. In recent years, a large number of short-term load forecasting methods have been proposed. However, how to select the optimal feature set and accurately predict multi-step ahead short-term load still faces huge challenges. In this paper, a hybrid feature selection method is proposed, an Improved Long Short-Term Memory network (ILSTM) is applied to predict multi-step ahead load. This method firstly takes the influence of temperature, humidity, dew point, and date type on the load into consideration. Furthermore, the maximum information coefficient is used for the preliminary screening of historical load, and Max-Relevance and Min-Redundancy (mRMR) is employed for further feature selection. Finally, the selected feature set is considered as input of the model to perform multi-step ahead short-term load prediction by the Improved Long Short-Term Memory network. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, two categories of contrast methods are applied: (1) comparing the model with hybrid feature selection and the model which does not adopt hybrid feature selection; (2) comparing different models including Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) using hybrid feature selection. The result of the experiments, which were developed during four periods in the Hubei Province, China, show that hybrid feature selection can improve the prediction accuracy of the model, and the proposed model can accurately predict the multi-step ahead load.

A comparative study of short-term load forecasting methods in distribution network

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-35
Author(s):  
Tuan Ho Le ◽  
◽  
Quang Hung Le ◽  
Thanh Hoang Phan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Distribution Network ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Short-term load forecasting plays an important role in building operation strategies and ensuring reliability of any electric power system. Generally, short-term load forecasting methods can be classified into three main categories: statistical approaches, artificial intelligence based-approaches and hybrid approaches. Each method has its own advantages and shortcomings. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of ARIMA model (e.g., statistical method) and artificial neural network (e.g., artificial intelligence based-method) in short-term load forecasting of distribution network. Firstly, the short-term load demand of Quy Nhon distribution network and short-term load demand of Phu Cat distribution network are analyzed. Secondly, the ARIMA model is applied to predict the load demand of two distribution networks. Thirdly, the artificial neural network is utilized to estimate the load demand of these networks. Finally, the estimated results from two applied methods are conducted for comparative purposes.

OPTIMIZATION OF LEAST SQUARES SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE TECHNIQUE USING GENETIC ALGORITHM FOR ELECTROENCEPHALOGRAM MULTI-DIMENSIONAL SIGNALS

2016 ◽  
Vol 78 (5-10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farzana Kabir Ahmad ◽  
Abdullah Yousef Awwad Al-Qammaz ◽  
Yuhanis Yusof
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Computational Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Feature Selection Technique ◽  
Selection Technique ◽  
Human Emotion ◽  
Valence And Arousal

Human-computer intelligent interaction (HCII) is a rising field of science that aims to refine and enhance the interaction between computer and human. Since emotion plays a vital role in human daily life, the ability of computer to interpret and response to human emotion is a crucial element for future intelligent system. Accordingly, several studies have been conducted to recognise human emotion using different technique such as facial expression, speech, galvanic skin response (GSR), or heart rate (HR). However, such techniques have problems mainly in terms of credibility and reliability as people can fake their feeling and response. Electroencephalogram (EEG) on the other has shown to be a very effective way in recognising human emotion as this technique records the brain activity of human and they can hardly be deceived by voluntary control. Regardless the popularity of EEG in recognizing human emotion, this study field is relatively challenging as EEG signal is nonlinear, involves myriad factors and chaotic in nature. These issues have led to high dimensional problem and poor classification results. To address such problems, this study has proposed a novel computational model, which consist of three main stages, namely a) feature extraction; b) feature selection and c) classifier. Discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) has been used to extract EEG signals feature and ultimately 204,800 features from 32 subject-independent have been obtained. Meanwhile, Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) have been used as a feature selection technique and classifier respectively. This computational model is tested on the common DEAP pre-processed EEG dataset in order to classify three levels of valence and arousal. The empirical results have shown that the proposed GA-LSSVM, has improved the classification results to 49.22% and 54.83% for valence and arousal respectively, whereas is it observed that 46.33% of valence and 48.30% of arousal classification were achieved when no feature selection technique is applied on the identical classifier

scholarly journals A novel genetic-algorithm-based neural network for short-term load forecasting

2003 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 793-799 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.H. Ling ◽  
F.H.F. Leung ◽  
H.K. Lam ◽  
Yim-Shu Lee ◽  
P.K.S. Tam
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document