The New Wave of Currency Devaluations in Africa – Will the Devalued Birr Help the Coffee Exports?

Despite the fact that currency devaluations are likely to have a negative effect on the economy in the long run, Ethiopia devalued its national currency, the birr (ETB), by 15 percent in 2017. They turned to this option in the hope of attracting more investments from abroad, decreasing import bills, improving the current account deficit and giving a boost to the exports of the coffee sector. A couple of months later, the impact seems to be promising because the export has been revived in some areas. However, it has to be stressed that the imported commodities may experience a price increase, there can be a widening balance of payments deficit and rising inflation. The paper aims to shed more light on the short- and long-term impacts of currency devaluations in the developing countries with a special emphasis on Ethiopia. Also, the recent Ethiopian measure is to be analyzed in greater detail highlighting the impacts on export earnings, import bills, the balance of payments, and on the overall competitiveness of the coffee sector.

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The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2018-11-70-84 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 70-84

Author(s):

Ph. S. Kartaev ◽

Yu. I. Yakimova

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Monetary Policy ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Inflation Targeting ◽

Policy Regime ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

The Exchange Rate ◽

Pass Through ◽

The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

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Do coffee exports have impact on long-term economic growth of countries?

Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) ◽

10.17221/283/2018-agricecon ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 65 (No. 8) ◽

pp. 385-393

Author(s):

Theodore Murindahabi ◽

Qiang Li ◽

Eric Nisingizwe ◽

E.M.B.P. Ekanayake

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Open Economy ◽

Policy Implications ◽

Pooled Mean Group ◽

Long Run ◽

Auto Regressive ◽

Coffee Sector ◽

The Impact ◽

Positive Effect

The present paper aims to investigate the impact of coffee exports on long-term economic growth in an open economy for 32 countries exporting coffee over the period of 1994–2013. The study applied a dynamic panel Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) modelling approach with estimators. All variables involved in the specified model were found to be stationary of order I (1) at a first difference. The Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) long-run results suggest the presence of a significant positive effect of coffee exports on economic growth. The empirical findings of the study suggest policy implications, promoting the coffee sector to boost the countries’ economy.

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Forecasting of Government Yield Curve in Post-Corona Pandemic

Jurnal Manajemen dan Organisasi ◽

10.29244/jmo.v11i3.33968 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 143-157

Author(s):

Vera Mita Niia ◽

Hamzah Hamzah

Keyword(s):

Yield Curve ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Speed Of Adjustment ◽

Bond Yield ◽

Rate Adjustment ◽

Macroeconomic Indicators ◽

Negative Effect ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

The Impact

The Indonesia government conducts several fiscal strategies to solve Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN)’s deficit due to corona pandemic by relaxation of APBN’s deficit policy, using surplus balance, upsizing loan and bond in domestic and valas currency. Upsizing or issuance a new Indonesian bon called SUN, would increase cost of rate is paid by government and its maturity that impacted to yield curve and risk of SUN. It has inspired this research to (1) investigate the determinant of yield curve due to shocks that occur in Indonesian macroeconomic during the pandemic (2) the impact of the pandemic on SUN’s risk and (3) the forecast of the yield curve in SUN after the pandemic using the VAR / VECM method. The reasearch used secondary data of bond yield from Indonesian Stock Market and imposed the effect of such as inflation, BI Rate, Kurs and foreign exchange that is taken from several sources such as BPS, Central Bank of Indonesia and Bloomberg during 2015 January until 2020 May. This research proves that the five main macroeconomic indicators have an influence in the short and long term on the yield curve. YIELD, GDP and BIR variables have a significant negative effect in the short term on the yield curve, whereas CPI, KURS and CD have no significant effect. The ECT’s coefficient shows the speed of adjustment towards the long-term balance and the BI Rate adjustment is faster than other variables with an ECT coefficient of 0,33. The estimation results show that the average R-squared is above 55 percent with the highest value of 79,35 percent, this indicates that the equation was formed because the research variables amounted to the R-squared results.

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The impact of environmental, social and corporate governance responsibility on the cost of short- and long-term debt

Economics and Business Review ◽

10.18559/ebr.2021.2.6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 74-96

Author(s):

Piotr Ratajczak ◽

Grzegorz Mikołajewicz

Keyword(s):

Corporate Governance ◽

Social Issues ◽

Three Dimensions ◽

Cost Of Debt ◽

Term Structures ◽

Long Run ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

The Cost ◽

The Impact

The aim of the paper is to examine the impact of environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) responsibility on the short- and long-term cost of debt. Linear regression was applied to a unique dataset on CSR and cost of debt for 300 companies recognized in 2017 by Corporate Knights as the most sustainable companies in the world. The question about the link between CSR and cost of debt is important as there is still ongoing debate as to whether business should undertake activities in the field of CSR—managers and other stakeholders are still unsure of the outcomes. The findings show that the involvement in environmental issues decreases the cost of long-term debt whereas the involvement in social issues brings benefits to short- and long-term debt. Surprisingly the greater the involvement in corporate governance, the higher the cost of debt in all time horizons. Managers should expect a lower cost of debt from environmental and social activities mostly in the long run. Corporate governance expenditures may in turn be seen as a waste of company resources, cost of forgone opportunities, or—optionally—as an over-investment. The main novelty is the breakdown of CSR into three dimensions while examining various term structures of corporate debt.

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The Macroeconomics of Developing Countries

10.1093/oso/9780198856672.001.0001 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Giovanni Andrea Cornia

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Structural Adjustment ◽

Developing Economies ◽

External Finance ◽

Weak Institutions ◽

Advanced Economies ◽

Development Goals ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

The Impact

The book focuses on the short- and long-term macroeconomic challenges faced by developing countries characterized by missing, incomplete, and dualistic markets and weak institutions. Such problems affect long-term growth, short-term macroeconomic equilibrium, employment, and inequality far more than in the advanced economies. A central message of the book is that ignoring these features and applying to developing countries models inspired by the reality of advanced economies may lead to wrong conclusions and policies. These challenges are discussed for a number of archetypes of developing economies dependent on land and natural resources, affected by supply rigidities in agriculture, and featuring dualistic markets, a dominant informal sector, fast population growth, and chronic dependence on the export of commodities and a volatile external finance. Finally, the book discusses the impact on growth, inequality, and poverty of the stabilization and structural adjustment reforms that were increasingly implemented during the last thirty years. These issues have taken centre stage since the launch of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) initiatives that have not spelled out a clear macroeconomic approach. There is a risk, therefore, that the wrong policies and sudden shocks may derail progress towards the SDGs which might be achieved by means of social policies.

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Mitigating the impact of resettlement caused by infrastructure developments

Impact ◽

10.21820/23987073.2021.3.67 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 (3) ◽

pp. 67-69

Author(s):

Ryo Fujikura

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Developing Countries ◽

Sea Level ◽

Infrastructure Projects ◽

Large Dams ◽

Long Run ◽

Displaced People ◽

Mitigate Climate Change ◽

The Impact

In developing countries, mass relocation caused by infrastructure projects such as the construction of large dams wreaks untold havoc on peoples' lives. Although such projects can be beneficial for economies in the long run, they naturally require large areas of land. This means that people are forced to move and these people are entitled to compensation. In order to mitigate the impact of resettlement and enable those who have been displaced to resume their lives, and even thrive, it is important to establish an understanding of the factors and outcomes present in relocations. This is particularly pressing given that as the need for more hydropower and water resources is on the rise due to a growing need for solutions to mitigate climate change and to meet growing food demend, more and more land is required to support this and more and more people are therefore being displaced. Professor Ryo Fujikura, Faculty of Sustainability Studies, Hosei University, Japan, is working to help develop policies and systems for resettling displaced people. For 13 years, he worked with people who have been displaced, recording their experiences and the outcomes from resettlements and he is now using this experience to provide guidance for future infrastructure projects. His research tends to target people who have been resettled for more than 20 years, as the process of resettlement has long-term impacts. Ultimately, he is keen to contribute to the concept of 'migration with dignity' of displaced people by sea level rising due to climate change, enabling them to successfully reconstruct their lives and, more than this, to flourish.

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The Impact of COVID-19 on Mental Health

International Journal of Biology and Biomedical Engineering ◽

10.46300/91011.2021.15.23 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 ◽

pp. 202-211

Author(s):

Donart Koci ◽

Festina Morina ◽

Fatlinda Hoxhaj ◽

Antigona Ukëhaxhaj

Keyword(s):

Mental Health ◽

Economic Status ◽

Age Groups ◽

Financial Strain ◽

Self Confidence ◽

Long Run ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

The Impact ◽

The City

Infection with the new coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, or SARS-CoV-2) causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The virus that causes COVID-19 spreads easily among humans and more continues to be detected over time as to how it spreads. The effect that this crisis will have on the mental health of the population, both in the short and long term, is unknown. In the acute phase, fears of possible exposure to infection, loss of employment, and financial strain are likely to increase psychological distress in the wider population. In the long run, grief and trauma are likely to appear as financial and social impacts become ingrained, the risk of depression and suicide may increase. Lack of hugs, handshakes, free movement and isolation have made it impossible for people to socialize and behave normally with each other. Anxiety, fear, insecurity and lack of self-confidence are some of the main problems that people faced during quarantine and that they may face after the release of the measures. The purpose of this paper is to prove how much the Pandemic and the situation with COVID-19 have affected the mental health of the population in the city of Prizren and Gjakova. Quantitative study method was used for the realization of this work. This paper is based on the data extracted from the questionnaire completed together with the citizens of the municipalities of Prizren and Gjakova. For the realization of this scientific research are involved 200 citizens. Age groups, gender, economic status, level of education and place of residence were analyzed. The study included people aged 20 to 50 years. The most included gender in the study is the female with 59% while the male gender with 41%. All results are presented in graphs worked with SPSS program.

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Infrastructure mortgage in Russia: Opportunities and prospects

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2019-2-114-133 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 114-133

Author(s):

G. I. Idrisov ◽

Y. Yu. Ponomarev

Keyword(s):

Federal Government ◽

Public Debt ◽

Budget Deficit ◽

Expert Assessment ◽

Inflation Expectations ◽

Direct Impact ◽

Long Run ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Negative Effect

The article shows that depending on the goals pursued by the federal government and the available interbudgetary tools a different design of infrastructure mortgage is preferable. Three variants of such mortgage in Russia are proposed, each of which is better suited for certain types of projects and uses different forms of subsidies. According to our expert assessment the active use of infrastructure mortgage in Russia can increase the average annual GDP growth rate by 0.5 p. p. on the horizon of 5—7 years. In the long run the growth of infrastructure financing through the use of infrastructure mortgage could increase long-term economic growth by 0.9 p. p., which in 20—30 years can add 20—30% of GDP to the economy. However, the change in the structure of budget expenditures in the absence of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt will cause no direct impact on monetary policy. The increase in the deficit and the build-up of public debt will have a negative effect on inflation expectations, which will require monetary tightening for a longer time to stabilize them.

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