scholarly journals Initial Assessment of Unmanned Aircraft System Characteristics Required to Fill Data Gaps for Short-term Forecasts: Results from Focus Groups and Interviews

2020 ◽  
pp. 111-120
Author(s):  
Adam L. Houston ◽  
Janell C. Walther ◽  
Lisa M. Pytlikzillig ◽  
Jake Kawamoto
Keyword(s):  
Focus Groups ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Surveillance Network ◽  
Environmental Properties ◽  
Data Gaps

The integration of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the weather surveillance network must be guided by the data needs of the principal stakeholders. This work aims to assess data needs/gaps for short-term forecasts (<1-day lead time) issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) and then identify UAS characteristics required to fill these gaps. Results from focus groups and interviews of forecasters in the central United States are presented. Participant verbal responses were coded and then categorized into a set of 25 unique features. Each feature was classified according to four characteristics: 1) environmental properties that need to be measured to represent a given feature, 2) flight type (vertical profile, horizontal transect, and/or survey) 3) flight height required to measure the environmental properties, and 4) relevance of feature to the forecasting of deep convection. Findings indicate the majority of identified features require measurement of typical state variables (temperature, moisture, and wind), but more than a third require visual imagery. Almost all of the features require either survey flight operations or vertical profiles. Additionally, 96% of the features require observations collected below 1000 m. Nearly two-thirds of the features are associated with deep convection. This work represents the first step towards establishing how UAS could be used to fill data gaps that exist for short-term forecasts issued by the NWS. The results stand alone in demonstrating the potential applications of UAS from the perspective of operational forecasters and have also informed ongoing efforts to develop a nationwide survey of forecasters.

scholarly journals National Weather Service Data Needs for Short-Term Forecasts and the Role of Unmanned Aircraft in Filling the Gap: Results from a Nationwide Survey

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Adam L. Houston ◽  
Lisa M. Pytlikzillig ◽  
Janell C. Walther
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Short Term ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Surveillance Network ◽  
Critical Data ◽  
Data Gaps ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractInclusion of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the weather surveillance network has the potential to improve short-term (< 1 day) weather forecasts through direct integration of UAS-collected data into the forecast process and assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. However, one of the primary means by which the value of any new sensing platform can be assessed is through consultation with principal stakeholders. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters are principal stakeholders responsible for the issuance of short-term forecasts. The purpose of the work presented here is to use results from a survey of 630 NWS forecasters to assess critical data gaps that impact short-term forecast accuracy, and explore the potential role of UAS in filling these gaps.NWS forecasters view winter precipitation, icing, flood, lake-effect/enhanced snow, turbulence, and waves as the phenomena principally impacted by data gaps. Of the ten high-priority weather-related characteristics that need to be observed to fill critical data gaps, seven are either measures of precipitation or related to precipitation-producing phenomena. The three most important UAS capabilities/characteristics required for useful data for weather forecasting are real- or near-real-time data, the ability to integrate UAS data with additional data gathered by other systems, and UASs equipped with cameras to verify forecasts and monitor weather. Of the three operation modes offered for forecasters to consider, targeted surveillance is considered to be the most important compared to fixed site profiling or transects between fixed sites.

scholarly journals Intraseasonal Variability in MERRA Energy Fluxes over the Tropical Oceans

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (17) ◽  
pp. 5629-5647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franklin R. Robertson ◽  
Jason B. Roberts
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Cloud Forcing ◽  
Tropical Oceans ◽  
Fractional Cloud ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Abstract This paper investigates intraseasonal variability as represented by the recent NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The authors examine the behavior of heat, moisture, and radiative fluxes emphasizing their contribution to intraseasonal variations in heat and moisture balance integrated over the tropical oceans. MERRA successfully captures intraseasonal signals in both state variables and fluxes, though it depends heavily on the analysis increment update terms that constrain the reanalysis to be near the observations. Precipitation anomaly patterns evolve in close agreement with those from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) though locally MERRA may occasionally be smaller by up to 20%. As in the TRMM observations, tropical convection increases lead tropospheric warming by approximately 7 days. Radiative flux anomalies are dominated by cloud forcing and are found to replicate the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) energy loss associated with increased convection found by other observationally based studies. However, MERRA’s convectively produced clouds appear to deepen too soon as precipitation increases. Total fractional cloud cover variations appear somewhat weak compared to observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Evolution of the surface fluxes, convection, and TOA radiation is consistent with the “discharge–recharge” paradigm that posits the importance of lower-tropospheric moisture accumulation prior to the expansion of organized deep convection. The authors conclude that MERRA constitutes a very useful representation of intraseasonal variability that will support a variety of studies concerning radiative–convective–dynamical processes and will help identify pathways for improved moist physical parameterization in global models.

Research on Distribution Transformer Condition Assessment Method Considering State Variables Dimensionality Reduction

2013 ◽  
Vol 433-435 ◽  
pp. 1245-1249
Author(s):  
Hai Feng Liang ◽  
Zi Xing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Condition Assessment ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Distribution Transformer ◽  
Core State ◽  
The Core ◽  
Eigen Value ◽  
Assessment Result

Compared with the transmission transformer condition assessment, less data is one of the major problems that limit distribution transformer condition assessment work. This paper intends to solve this problem through reducing state variables dimensionality. First, through analyzing the principle of every state variables of distribution transformer by use of the maximum Eigen-value approach, the core state collection of assessing the distribution transformer is formed and the state variables dimensionality is reducing. Then, the initial results of distribution transformer condition assessment are obtained by using core state variables. Thirdly, the sensitivity of the non-core state variables to the evaluation results is calculated. Finally, the initial assessment result is modified considering the non-core state variables change and the sensitivity to get the final result. Through the above proposed method, the evaluation process need only consider the core state variables and the change of non-core state variables. This method not only reduces the demand for data, but also ensures accuracy of the results using the sensitivity correction. The results of a condition assessment instance of distribution transformer verify the validity of the method.

Geotechnical design aspects for large gravity retaining structures under seismic loading

1976 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 231-242
Author(s):  
C. D. Thompson ◽  
J. J. Emery
Keyword(s):  
Earth Pressure ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Hydraulic Fill ◽  
Extensive Field ◽  
Significant Damage ◽  
Earth Pressures ◽  
Geotechnical Design ◽  
Simplified Procedures ◽  
Design Factors

Large wharf gravity retaining walls are often constructed in areas of Canada where seismic activity of a level that has damaged marine structures in other countries can be anticipated. From a geotechnical viewpoint, much of this damage is related to the liquefaction of sands and silts in foundations or backfills. It is critical that zones of potential liquefaction be detected, and this may require more extensive field and laboratory testing than for static designs. Simplified procedures for evaluating the liquefaction potential of sands and silts are presented, and some guidelines for sensitive clays are discussed. Since hydraulic fill is often used, remedial measures and specifications to avoid liquefaction of backfills are described. These include densification of the soil and provision of materials outside the gradation range that is most susceptible to liquefaction. While tsunamis arrive after the strong shaking, they can be the source of significant damage in areas where they might occur. Conservative earth pressure parameters are given for areas exposed to tsunamis, and these may be employed for initial assessment of potential problems from offshore earthquakes. The various geotechnical aspects considered must be closely related to other design factors such as seismic exposure, earth pressures, and allowable short-term safety factors.

scholarly journals Titan's surface inventory of organic materials estimated from Cassini RADAR observations

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (S251) ◽  
pp. 329-330
Author(s):  
Ralph D. Lorenz
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
River Channels ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Dune Sands ◽  
Geologic Time ◽  
The Right ◽  
Coal Reserves

AbstractCassini RADAR observations now permit an initial assessment of the inventory of two classes, presumed to be organic, of Titan surface materials: polar lake liquids and equatorial dune sands. Several hundred lakes or seas have been observed, of which dozens are each estimated to contain more hydrocarbon liquid than the entire known oil and gas reserves on Earth. Dark dunes cover some 20% of Titan's surface, and comprise a volume of material several hundred times larger than Earth's coal reserves. Overall, however, the identified surface inventories (> 3 × 104 km3 of liquid, and >2 × 105 km3 of dune sands) are small compared with estimated photochemical production on Titan over the age of the Solar System. The sand volume is too large to be accounted for simply by erosion in observed river channels or ejecta from observed impact craters. The lakes are adequate in extent to buffer atmospheric methane against photolysis in the short term, but do not contain enough methane to sustain the atmosphere over geologic time. Thus, unless frequent resupply from the interior buffers this greenhouse gas at exactly the right rate, dramatic climate change on Titan is likely in its past, present and future.

scholarly journals Dutch patients, caregivers and healthcare professionals generate first nationwide research agenda for juvenile idiopathic arthritis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anouk Verwoerd ◽  
Wineke Armbrust ◽  
Katherine Cowan ◽  
Lotte van den Berg ◽  
Joke de Boer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis ◽  
Focus Groups ◽  
Research Agenda ◽  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Nationwide Survey ◽  
James Lind Alliance ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Personalised Treatment

Abstract Background Involving the end-users of scientific research (patients, carers and clinicians) in setting research priorities is important to formulate research questions that truly make a difference and are in tune with the needs of patients. We therefore aimed to generate a national research agenda for Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA) together with patients, their caregivers and healthcare professionals through conducting a nationwide survey among these stakeholders.Methods The James Lind Alliance method was used, tailored with additional focus groups held to involve younger patients. First, research questions were gathered through an online and hardcopy survey. The received questions that were in scope were summarised and a literature search was performed to verify that questions were unanswered. Questions were ranked in the interim survey, and the final top 10 was chosen during a prioritisation workshop. Results Two hundred and seventy-eight respondents submitted 604 questions, of which 519 were in scope. Of these 604 questions, 81 were generated in the focus groups with younger children. The questions were summarised into 53 summary questions. An evidence checking process verified that all questions were unanswered. A total of 303 respondents prioritised the questions in the interim survey. Focus groups with children generated a top 5 of their most important questions. Combining this top 5 with the top 10s of patients, carers, and clinicians led to a top 21. Out of these, the top 10 research priorities were chosen during a final workshop. Research into pain and fatigue, personalised treatment strategies and aetiology were ranked high in the Top 10.Conclusions Through this study, the top 10 research priorities for JIA of patients, their caregivers and clinicians were identified to inform researchers and research funders of the research topics that matter most to them. The top priority involves the treatment and mechanisms behind persisting pain and fatigue when the disease is in remission.

scholarly journals Delirium in terminal cancer inpatients: short-term survival and missed diagnosis

Salud Mental ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Rodríguez-Mayoral ◽  
◽  
Francisco Reyes-Madrigal ◽  
Silvia Allende-Pérez ◽  
Emma Verástegui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Palliative Care ◽  
Survival Time ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Palliative Care Service ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Mean Survival Time ◽  
Tertiary Center ◽  
Missed Diagnosis

Introduction. Delirium is a neurocognitive disorder, frequently present in advanced cancer patients. It morbidity, mortality, health expenditure, and causes distress to patients, family members, and health care professionals. Despite its impact, the disorder is still underdiagnosed, and consequently, mistreated. Objective. To describe the prevalence, clinical features, impact on the survival and percentage of missed diagnosis of delirium, in palliative care inpatients treated in a tertiary center. Method. We conducted a prospective study, including all the inpatients referred to the Palliative Care Service of the Instituto Nacional de Cancerología in Mexico, from August, 2014 to March, 2015. As a first step, we collected clinical and sociodemographic data, and determined the presence/absence of delirium, using the Confusion Assessment Method. Then, we reviewed the clinical file to determine if a previous delirium diagnosis was stablished by the primary referring team. Finally, thirty days after the initial assessment, we contacted the patients in order to know their survival status (alive/death). We performed a survival analysis to compare mortality among patients with delirium/non-delirium, and reported the percentage of delirium missed diagnosis. Results. We included 174 patients, 40.2% were diagnosed with delirium. Mean survival time in patients with delirium was 11 days, while in non-delirium patient’s mean survival time was 21 days; Log Rank 23.50, p < .001. We found a 73% of missed delirium diagnosis by the primary referring team. Discussion and conclusion. Prevalence of delirium in this population is similar to that observed in other palliative care populations. Also, delirium is the principal determinant of short-term mortality, and it is frequently underdiagnosed. Preventive strategies and early identification could help to reduce its burden.

scholarly journals The Coupling of NSSL Warn-on-Forecast and FLASH Systems for Probabilistic Flash Flood Prediction

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-141
Author(s):  
Nusrat Yussouf ◽  
Katie A. Wilson ◽  
Steven M. Martinaitis ◽  
Humberto Vergara ◽  
Pamela L. Heinselman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Operational Decision Making ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

AbstractThe goal of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) program is to provide frequently updating, probabilistic model guidance that will enable National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to produce more continuous communication of hazardous weather threats (e.g., heavy rainfall, flash floods, damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes) between the watch and warning temporal and spatial scales. To evaluate the application of this WoF concept for probabilistic short-term flash flood prediction, the 0–3-h rainfall forecasts from NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory’s (NSSL) experimental WoF System (WoFS) were integrated as the forcing to the NWS operational hydrologic modeling core within the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) system. Initial assessment of the potential impacts of probabilistic short-term flash flood forecasts from this coupled atmosphere–hydrology (WoFS-FLASH) modeling system were evaluated in the 2018 Hydrometeorology Testbed Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Hydrology experiment held in Norman, Oklahoma. During the 3-week experiment period, a total of nine NWS forecasters analyzed three retrospective flash flood events in archive mode. This study will describe specifically what information participants extracted from the WoFS-FLASH products during these three archived events, and how this type of information is expected to impact operational decision-making processes. Overall feedback from the testbed participants’ evaluations show promise for the coupled NSSL WoFS-FLASH system probabilistic flash flood model guidance to enable earlier assessment and detection of flash flood threats and to advance the current warning lead time for these events.

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