scholarly journals Evaluating Precursor Signals for QLCS Tornado and Higher Impact Straight-Line Wind Events

2021 ◽  
pp. 62-75
Author(s):  
Justin G. Gibbs
Keyword(s):  
Lead Times ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Significant Challenge ◽  
Straight Line ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Supercell Storms ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
Convective Vortices ◽  
Moderate Positive Correlation

Tornadoes produced by quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS) present a significant challenge to National Weather Service warning operations. Given the speed and scale at which they develop, different methods for tornado warning decision making are required than what traditionally are used for supercell storms. This study evaluates the skill of one of those techniques—the so-called three-ingredients method—and produces new approaches. The three-ingredients method is found to be reasonably skillful at short lead times, particularly for systems that are clearly linear. From the concepts and science of the three-ingredients method, several new combinations of environmental and radar parameters emerge that appear slightly more skillful, and may prove easier to execute in real time. Similar skill between the emerging methods provides the forecaster with options for what might work best in any given scenario. A moderate positive correlation with overall wind speed with some radar and environmental variables also is identified. Additionally, mesoscale convective vortices and supercell-like features in QLCS are found to produce tornadoes at a much higher rate than purely linear systems.

scholarly journals Structure and Motion of Severe-Wind-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems and Derechos in Relation to the Mean Wind

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 423-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew A. Campbell ◽  
Ariel E. Cohen ◽  
Michael C. Coniglio ◽  
Andrew R. Dean ◽  
Stephen F. Corfidi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Structure And Motion ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
Motion Characteristics ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Convective Vortices

Abstract The goal of this study is to document differences in the convective structure and motion of long-track, severe-wind-producing MCSs from short-track severe-wind-producing MCSs in relation to the mean wind. An ancillary goal is to determine if these differences are large enough that some criterion for MCS motion relative to the mean wind could be used in future definitions of “derechos.” Results confirm past investigations that well-organized MCSs, including those that produce derechos, tend to move faster than the mean wind, exhibiting a significantly larger degree of propagation (component of MCS motion in addition to the component contributed by the mean flow). Furthermore, well-organized systems that produce shorter-track swaths of damaging winds likewise tend to move faster than the mean wind with a significant propagation component along the mean wind. Therefore, propagation in the direction of the mean wind is not necessarily a characteristic that can be used to distinguish derechos from nonderechos. However, there is some indication that long-track damaging wind events that occur without large-scale or persistent bow echoes and mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) require a strong propagation component along the mean wind direction to become long lived. Overall, however, there does not appear to be enough separation in the motion characteristics among the MCS types to warrant the inclusion of a mean-wind criterion into the definition of a derecho at this time.

Aboveground Thermodynamic Observations in Convective Storms from Balloonborne Probes Acting as Pseudo-Lagrangian Drifters

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (4) ◽  
pp. 711-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul M. Markowski ◽  
Yvette P. Richardson ◽  
Scott J. Richardson ◽  
Anders Petersson
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Meteorology ◽  
Severe Storms ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Lagrangian Drifters ◽  
Straight Line ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Supercell Storms ◽  
Lagrangian Drifter

AbstractThe severe storms research community lacks reliable, aboveground, thermodynamic observations (e.g., temperature, humidity, and pressure) in convective storms. These missing observations are crucial to understanding the behavior of both supercell storms (e.g., the generation, reorientation, and amplification of vorticity necessary for tornado formation) and larger-scale (mesoscale) convective systems (e.g., storm maintenance and the generation of damaging straight-line winds). This paper describes a novel way to use balloonborne probes to obtain aboveground thermodynamic observations. Each probe is carried by a pair of balloons until one of the balloons is jettisoned; the remaining balloon and probe act as a pseudo-Lagrangian drifter that is drawn through the storm. Preliminary data are presented from a pair of deployments in supercell storms in Oklahoma and Kansas during May 2017. The versatility of the observing system extends beyond severe storms applications into any area of mesoscale meteorology in which a large array of aboveground, in situ thermodynamic observations are needed.

Quasi-Stationary, Extreme-Rain-Producing Convective Systems Associated with Midlevel Cyclonic Circulations

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 555-574 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russ S. Schumacher ◽  
Richard H. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Weak Boundaries ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Building Behavior ◽  
Slow Moving ◽  
Convective Vortices

Abstract This study identifies and examines the common characteristics of several nocturnal midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that developed near mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) or cutoff lows. All of these MCSs were organized into convective clusters or lines that exhibited back-building behavior, remained nearly stationary for 6–12 h, and produced locally excessive rainfall (greater than 200 mm in 12 h) that led to substantial flash flooding. Examination of individual events and composite analysis reveals that the MCSs formed in thermodynamic environments characterized by very high relative humidity at low levels, moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE), and very little convective inhibition (CIN). In each case, the presence of a strong low-level jet (LLJ) and weak midlevel winds led to a pronounced reversal of the wind shear vector with height. Most of the MCSs formed without any front or preexisting surface boundary in the vicinity, though weak boundaries were apparent in two of the cases. Lifting and destabilization associated with the interaction between the LLJ and the midlevel circulation assisted in initiating and maintaining the slow-moving MCSs. Based on the cases analyzed in this study and past events described in the literature, a conceptual model of the important processes that lead to extreme rainfall near midlevel circulations is presented.

Mesoscale Convective Vortices in Multiscale, Idealized Simulations: Dependence on Background State, Interdependency with Moist Baroclinic Cyclones, and Comparison with BAMEX Observations

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 1119-1139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Conzemius ◽  
Michael T. Montgomery
Keyword(s):  
Tangential Velocity ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Pressure Amplitude ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Common Center ◽  
Deep Moist Convection ◽  
Convective Vortices

Abstract A set of multiscale, nested, idealized numerical simulations of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) was conducted. The purpose of these simulations was to investigate the dependence of MCV development and evolution on background conditions and to explore the relationship between MCVs and larger, moist baroclinic cyclones. In all experiments, no mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed until a larger-scale, moist baroclinic system with surface pressure amplitude of at least 2 hPa was present. The convective system then enhanced the development of the moist baroclinic system by its diabatic production of eddy available potential energy (APE), which led to the enhanced baroclinic conversion of basic-state APE to eddy APE. The most rapid potential vorticity (PV) development occurred in and just behind the leading convective line. The entire system grew upscale with time as the newly created PV rotated cyclonically around a common center as the leading convective line continued to expand outward. Ten hours after the initiation of deep moist convection, the simulated MCV radii, heights of maximum winds, tangential velocity, and shear corresponded reasonably well to their counterparts in BAMEX. The increasing strength of the simulated MCVs with respect to larger values of background CAPE and shear supports the hypothesis that as long as convection is present, CAPE and shear both add to the strength of the MCV.

scholarly journals Local and Regional Discriminators of Mesoscale Convective Vortex Development in Arizona

2003 ◽  
Vol 131 (8) ◽  
pp. 1939-1943
Author(s):  
David M. Brommer ◽  
Robert C. Balling ◽  
Randall S. Cerveny
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Vortex ◽  
Convective Vortices ◽  
Rawinsonde Data

Abstract In approximately half of Arizona's summer season (June–September) mesoscale convective systems evolve into mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs). Analysis of satellite imagery identified MCVs in Arizona over the period 1991–2000, and local and regional rawinsonde data discriminated conditions conducive for MCV development. These results indicate that MCVs are more likely to form from convective systems when the local and regional environments are characterized by relative stability in the 850–700-hPa layer and moderate wind shear in the 500–200-hPa layer. These characteristics are similar to results reported for MCV development in the central United States.

Patterns of Precipitation and Mesolow Evolution in Midlatitude Mesoscale Convective Vortices

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (3) ◽  
pp. 909-931 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric P. James ◽  
Richard H. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Pressure Effects ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Left Hand ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Stratiform Region ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Convective Vortices

Abstract Surface pressure manifestations of mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) that traversed Oklahoma during the periods May–August 2002–05 are studied using the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D), the Oklahoma Mesonet, and the NOAA Profiler Network data. Forty-five MCVs that developed from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) have been investigated, 28 (62%) of which exhibit mesolows detectable at the surface. Within this group, three distinct patterns of precipitation organization and associated mesolow evolution have been identified. The remaining 17 (38%) of the cases do not contain a surface mesolow. Two repeating patterns of precipitation organization are identified for the latter group. The three categories of MCVs possessing a surface mesolow are as follows. Nineteen are classified as “rear-inflow-jet MCVs,” and tend to form within large and intense asymmetric MCSs. Rear inflow into the MCS, enhanced by the development of an MCV on the left-hand side relative to system motion, produces a rear-inflow notch and a distinct surface wake low at the back edge of the stratiform region. Hence, the surface mesolow and MCV are displaced from one another. Eight are classified as “collapsing-stratiform-region MCVs.” These MCVs arise from small asymmetric MCSs. As the stratiform region of the MCS weakens, a large mesolow appears beneath its dissipating remnants due to broad subsidence warming, and at the same time the midlevel vortex spins up due to column stretching. One case, called a “vertically coherent MCV,” contains a well-defined surface mesolow and associated cyclonic circulation, apparently due to the strength of the midlevel warm core and the weakness of the low-level cold pool. In these latter two cases, the surface mesolow and MCV are approximately collocated. Within the group of MCVs without a surface mesolow, 14 are classified as “remnant-circulation MCVs” containing no significant precipitation or surface pressure effects. Finally, three are classified as “cold-pool-dominated MCVs;” these cases contain significant precipitation but no discernible surface mesolow. This study represents the first systematic analysis of the surface mesolows associated with MCVs. The pattern of surface pressure and winds accompanying MCVs can affect subsequent convective development in such systems. Extension of the findings herein to tropical oceans may have implications regarding tropical cyclogenesis.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Convective Systems and Their Synoptic-Scale Environment in Finland

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 182-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ari-Juhani Punkka ◽  
Marja Bister
Keyword(s):  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Wind Events ◽  
Deep Moist Convection

Abstract The environments within which high-latitude intense and nonintense mesoscale convective systems (iMCSs and niMCSs) and smaller thunderstorm clusters (sub-MCSs) develop were studied using proximity soundings. MCS statistics covering 8 years were created by analyzing composite radar imagery. One-third of all systems were intense in Finland and the frequency of MCSs was highest in July. On average, MCSs had a duration of 10.8 h and traveled toward the northeast. Many of the linear MCSs had a southwest–northeast line orientation. Interestingly, a few MCSs were observed to travel toward the west, which is a geographically specific feature of the MCS characteristics. The midlevel lapse rate failed to distinguish the environments of the different event types from each other. However, in MCSs, CAPE and the low-level mixing ratio were higher, the deep-layer-mean wind was stronger, and the lifting condensation level (LCL) was lower than in sub-MCSs. CAPE, low-level mixing ratio, and LCL height were the best discriminators between iMCSs and niMCSs. The mean wind over deep layers distinguished the severe wind–producing events from the nonsevere events better than did the vertical equivalent potential temperature difference or the wind shear in shallow layers. No evidence was found to support the hypothesis that dry air at low- and midlevels would increase the likelihood of severe convective winds. Instead, abundant low- and midlevel moisture was present during both iMCS cases and significant wind events. These results emphasize the pronounced role of low- and midlevel moisture on the longevity and intensity of deep moist convection in low-CAPE environments.

scholarly journals Total Lightning Signatures of Thunderstorm Intensity over North Texas. Part II: Mesoscale Convective Systems

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (10) ◽  
pp. 3303-3324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott M. Steiger ◽  
Richard E. Orville ◽  
Lawrence D. Carey
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Research Network ◽  
Fort Worth ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Source Density ◽  
Stratiform Region ◽  
Straight Line ◽  
Lightning Detection ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Total Lightning

Abstract Total lightning data from the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR II) research network in addition to cloud-to-ground flash data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and data from the Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) station (KFWS) were examined from individual cells within mesoscale convective systems that crossed the Dallas–Fort Worth region on 13 October 2001, 27 May 2002, and 16 June 2002. LDAR II source density contours were comma shaped, in association with severe wind events within mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) on 13 October 2001 and 27 May 2002. This signature is similar to the radar reflectivity bow echo. The source density comma shape was apparent 15 min prior to a severe wind report and lasted more than 20 min during the 13 October storm. Consistent relationships between severe straight-line winds, radar, and lightning storm cell characteristics (e.g., lightning heights) were not found for cells within MCSs as was the case for severe weather in supercells in Part I of this study. Cell interactions within MCSs are believed to weaken these relationships as reflectivity and lightning from nearby storms contaminate the cells of interest. Another hypothesis for these weak relations is that system, not individual cell, processes are responsible for severe straight-line winds at the surface. Analysis of the total lightning structure of the 13 October 2001 MCS showed downward-sloping source density contours behind the main convective line into the stratiform region. This further supports a charge advection mechanism in developing the stratiform charge structure. Bimodal vertical source density distributions were observed within MCS convection close to the center of the LDAR II network, while the lower mode was not detected at increasing range.

Flow-Dependent Reliability: A Path to More Skillful Ensemble Forecasts

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (5) ◽  
pp. 1015-1026 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Rodwell ◽  
D. S. Richardson ◽  
D. B. Parsons ◽  
H. Wernli
Keyword(s):  
Lead Times ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Flow Type ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Ensemble Weather Forecasts ◽  
Start Dates

AbstractWhile chaos ensures that probabilistic weather forecasts cannot always be “sharp,” it is important for users and developers that they are reliable. For example, they should not be overconfident or underconfident. The “spread–error” relationship is often used as a first-order assessment of the reliability of ensemble weather forecasts. This states that the ensemble standard deviation (a measure of forecast uncertainty) should match the root-mean-square error on the ensemble mean (when averaged over a sufficient number of forecast start dates). It is shown here that this relationship is now largely satisfied at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for ensemble forecasts of the midlatitude, midtropospheric flow out to lead times of at least 10 days when averaged over all flow situations throughout the year. This study proposes a practical framework for continued improvement in the reliability (and skill) of such forecasts. This involves the diagnosis of flow-dependent deficiencies in short-range (∼12 h) reliability for a range of synoptic-scale flow types and the prioritization of modeling research to address these deficiencies. The approach is demonstrated for a previously identified flow type, a trough over the Rockies with warm, moist air ahead. The mesoscale convective systems that can ensue are difficult to predict and, by perturbing the jet stream, are thought to lead to deterministic forecast “busts” for Europe several days later. The results here suggest that jet stream spread is insufficient during this flow type, and thus unreliable. This is likely to mean that the uncertain forecasts for Europe may, nevertheless, still be overconfident.

Radar and Damage Analysis of Severe Bow Echoes Observed during BAMEX

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (3) ◽  
pp. 791-806 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dustan M. Wheatley ◽  
Robert J. Trapp ◽  
Nolan T. Atkins
Keyword(s):  
Wind Damage ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Damage Analysis ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Straight Line ◽  
Bow Echo ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Vortex

Abstract This study examines damaging-wind production by bow-shaped convective systems, commonly referred to as bow echoes. Recent idealized numerical simulations suggest that, in addition to descending rear inflow at the bow echo apex, low-level mesovortices within bow echoes can induce damaging straight-line surface winds. In light of these findings, detailed aerial and ground surveys of wind damage were conducted immediately following five bow echo events observed during the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) Experiment (BAMEX) field phase. These damage locations were overlaid directly onto Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) images to (i) elucidate where damaging surface winds occurred within the bow-shaped convective system (in proximity to the apex, north of the apex, etc.), and then (ii) explain the existence of these winds in the context of the possible damaging-wind mechanisms. The results of this study provide clear observational evidence that low-level mesovortices within bow echoes can produce damaging straight-line winds at the ground. When present in the BAMEX dataset, mesovortex winds produced the most significant wind damage. Also in the BAMEX dataset, it was observed that smaller-scale bow echoes—those with horizontal scales of tens of kilometers or less—produced more significant wind damage than mature, extensive bow echoes (except when mesovortices were present within the larger-scale systems).

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