scholarly journals Cyclical Youth-Led Conflict as an Early Warning Indicator

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-25
Author(s):  
Michelle Legassicke

The dynamics of conflict are shifting. In the 2011 World Development Report, the World Bank stated that conflicts are now increasingly cyclical and intractable events; 90 percent of the civil wars that occurred in the 2000s were fought within countries that had experienced a domestic conflict in the past 30 years (World Bank, 2011). Countries are more likely to experience cycles of violence due to the persistence of weak state structures that cannot extend their reach into peripheral regions, leading to local instability (Kingston, 2004). Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the international community observed several states – in which external actors provided 50 percent of those states’ overall revenues – relapse into civil war (Call, 2012). Given the significant investment by the international community in peacebuilding projects in post-conflict states – whether democratic reforms, economic reforms, capacity building, or sustainable development – there needs to be a significant increase in research focused on civil war recurrence, as the trajectory of post-conflict states cannot be guaranteed without sustainable peace.

Author(s):  
Nguyen Manh Hung

Trong khoảng 10 - 15 năm gần đây, ở Việt Nam đã nổi lên luận điểm rằng: cải cách thể chế kinh tế ngày càng đóng vai trò quan trọng hơn trong tiến trình đổi mới. Khi các nguồn lực như tài nguyên thiên nhiên, lao động giá rẻ và vốn...đã đến giới hạn thì cải cách thể chế trở thành đòi hỏi tất yếu đối với nền kinh tế. Tuy nhiên, đây cũng là thử thách khó khăn của quá trình phát triển. Trên thế giới, nhiều quốc gia chỉ đạt được một phần mục tiêu của cải cách, thậm chí ở một số quốc gia nỗ lực cải cách thể chế lại đẩy nền kinh tế vào những bất ổn không ngừng.  Tiến trình cải cách thể chế kinh tế sẽ khó thể thành công nếu không đi kèm với nỗ lực thiết lập một nền tảng quản trị quốc gia vững mạnh. Từ khóa Quản trị, thể chế, kinh tế thị trường, cải cách References [1] Acemoglu, Daron and James Robinson (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. Random House[2] Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson (2001), “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation” The American Economic Review Vol. 91, No. 5 (Dec., 2001)[3] Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson and James Robinson (2005). “Institutions as Fundamental Cause of Long run Growth”, Handbook ofEconomic Growth, Volume IA. Edited by Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf. 2005 Elsevier B.V[4] Asian Development Bank (1995). Governance: Sound Development Management, October 1995;[5] Diễn đàn kinh tế tư nhân Việt Nam 2016: Cơ hội, thách thức và giải pháp. Hà nội,[6] Heritage Foundation (2017). 2017 Index of Economic Freedom,[7] [http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking][8] International Development Association (1998). Additions to IDA Resources: Twelfth Replenishment (IDA12). 23 December 1998; [9] Kasper, Wolfgang and Manfred E Streit (1999). Institutional Economics: Social Order and Public Policy, Edward Elgar. Tr. 41[10] Kaufmann, Daniel; Aart Kraay, Massimo Mastruzzi (2010), The Worldwide Governance Indicators Methodology and Analytical Issues, the World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5430, September 2010[11] Nguyễn Quang Thuấn (2017). “Cải thiện nền quản trị quốc gia, tạo môi trường thuận lợi thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế trong giai đoạn tới”, tham luận tại Diễn đàn Kinh tế Việt Nam 2017: Phát huy nội lực, tăng trưởng bền vững, Ban kinh tế trung ương ngày 27/06/2017[12] North, D.C. (1990), Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.[13] Osborne, S. P. (2006), “The New Public Governance?” Public Management Review, vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 377-388.[14] UNDP (1997). “Governance for Sustainable Human Development” New York; WB (1994). Governance: The World Bank’s Experience. Washington DC; [15] VCCI & USAID (2015). Báo cáo năng lực cạnh tranh cấp tỉnh năm 2015. Hà Nội: Phòng Thương mại và Công nghiệp Việt Nam và Cơ quan Phát triển Quốc tế Hoa Kỳ [16] Wolfensohn, James D. (1999), Address to the Board of Governors (September 28, 1999), the World Bank[17] WB (1992). World Development Report: Governance and Development, Washington DC. [18] WB (1989). Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to Sustainable Growth, Washington DC[19] WB (2016). Ease of Doing Business 2016. Washington DC [20] http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/vietnam[21] WB (1997). World Development Report 1997. Washington DC. [22] WB (2017). Worldwide Governance Indicator, [23] http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#reports[24] World Economic Forum (2016). Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017, Geneva.


2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
pp. 1021-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Keels

New research has emerged that suggests there is a troubling relationship between elections and civil wars; primarily, elections increase the risk of civil war recurrence. I investigate this relationship further by examining the economic factors associated with the connection between postwar elections and peace failure. Specifically, how does the presence of oil wealth impact the risk posed by postwar elections. Drawing on previous findings in the democratization literature, I suggest the immobility of oil wealth dramatically increases the stakes associated with postwar elections. As postwar elites use irregular electioneering to consolidate their control of oil revenue, it increases the incentives for postwar opposition to use violence as a means to achieve their objectives. Using post-civil war data from 1945 to 2005, I demonstrate that postwar elections that occur in oil-rich economies dramatically decrease the durability of postwar peace. Once controlling for petro elections, though, I demonstrate that subsequent postwar elections actually increase the durability of postwar peace.


Wars of Law ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 38-71
Author(s):  
Tanisha M. Fazal

This chapter develops the main arguments of the book, focusing on how belligerents in interstate and civil war have reacted to the development of the laws of war detailed in Chapter 2. States involved in interstate war are perversely incentivized to evade the laws of war as these laws have proliferated. Thus, they are decreasingly likely to engage the formalities of war, specifically declarations of war and peace treaties. Secessionist rebel groups fighting civil wars aim to please the international community, and therefore are decreasingly likely to declare independence formally, generally likely to avoid targeting civilians, and increasingly likely to conclude peace treaties.


2005 ◽  
Vol 104 (679) ◽  
pp. 77-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Holiday

In the immediate aftermath of the 1992 peace accords, El Salvador was cited frequently by the United Nations and even the World Bank as a country that, with the international community's help, effectively managed its transition from civil war to peace and reconciliation. Thirteen years later, only the US government views the Salvadoran model so favorably.


Author(s):  
Charity Butcher

Since the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States, terrorism has gained increased prominence in both scholarship and the media. While international terrorist acts are quite visible and highly publicized, such attacks represent only one type of terrorism within the international system. In fact, a very large number of acts of terrorism take place within the context of civil wars. Given the great disparity in power in most civil wars, it is not surprising that terrorism might be seen as a tactic that is often used by insurgent groups, who may have few resources at their disposal to fight a much stronger opponent. There is a clear linkage between the concepts of terrorism and civil war, yet until recently scholars have largely approached civil war and terrorism separately. Recent literature has attempted to specifically map the intersection of terrorism and civil war, recognizing the extent to which the two overlap. As expected, the findings suggest that civil war and terrorism are highly linked. Other scholars have endeavoured to explain why rebel groups in some civil wars use terrorism, while others do not. Further research focuses on how governments respond to terrorism during civil war or on how the decisions of external actors to intervene in civil wars are affected by the use of terrorism by insurgent groups. These studies show that there is too little theorizing on the relationship between civil war and terrorism; while scholars are finally considering these concepts collectively, the full nature of their relationship remains unexplored. Additional research is needed to better understand the various ways that terrorism and civil war overlap, interact, and mutually affect other important international and domestic political processes.


Author(s):  
Idean Salehyan ◽  
Clayton L. Thyne

Civil war is an armed conflict between the state and another organized domestic party over a contested political incompatibility, which results in a number of casualties exceeding a certain threshold for both parties. Attempts to operationalize these criteria have produced many data sets, which conceptualize civil war as distinct from one-sided violence, organized crime, and communal fighting. Civil wars are devastating for states experiencing them, their neighbors, and the entire global community. Combatant and civilian deaths, rape, massive refugee flight, negative impacts on economy and infrastructure, spread of infectious diseases, global spread of illegal narcotics, and the promotion of terrorism are all consequences of civil wars. Theories explaining why civil wars occur focus on objectives of the rebels, ability of rebels to successfully challenge the government, influence of external actors on interactions between the government and the opposition, external financing of potential rebel groups, and impact of a state’s neighbors on the likelihood of civil conflict or how neighboring conflicts and refugee communities serve as breeding grounds for cross-border rebel movements. Conflicts persist until neither side believes that it can achieve unilateral victory and continued fighting is costly. Governments are more likely to win early when they have large armies, but time to government victory increases when they are faced with secessionist rebels and when external parties are involved. Meanwhile, external mediation diminishes informational and credible commitment problems during bargaining and reduces conflict duration. Promising directions for future research on civil war include geographic disaggregation, survey research, and computational/agent-based modeling.


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