scholarly journals Simulation of snow accumulation and melting in the Kama river basin using data from global prognostic models

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 494-508 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. V. Pyankov ◽  
A. N. Shikhov ◽  
P. G. Mikhaylyukova
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Snow Storage ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Weather Stations

Currently, the improvement of numerical models of weather forecasting allows using them for hydrological problems, including calculations of snow water equivalent  (SWE) or snow storage. In this paper, we discuss the applicability of daily precipitation forecasts for three global atmospheric models: GFS (USA), GEM (Canada) and PL-AV (Russia) for calculating snow storage (SWE) in the Kama river basin for the cold season of 2017–2018. As the main components of the balance of snow storages the following parameters were taken into account: precipitation (with regard for the phase); snow melting during thaws; evaporation from the surface of the snow cover; interception of solid precipitation by forest vegetation. The calculation of snow accumulation and melting was based on empirical methods and performed with the GIS technologies. The degree-day factor was used to calculate snowmelt intensity, and snow sublimation was estimated by P.P. Kuz’min formula. The accuracy of numerical precipitation forecasts was estimated by comparing the results with the data of 101 weather stations. Materials of 40 field and 27 forest snow-measuring routes were taken into account to assess the reliability of the calculation of snow storages (SWE). During the snowmelt period, the part of the snow-covered area of the basin was also calculated using satellite images of Terra/Aqua MODIS on the basis of the NDFSI index. The most important result is that under conditions of 2017/18 the mean square error of calculating the maximum snow storage by the GFS, GEM and PL-AB models was less than 25% of its measured values. It is difficult to determine which model provides the maximum accuracy of the snow storage calculation since each one has individual limitations. According to the PL-AV model, the mean square error of snow storage calculation was minimal, but there was a significant underestimation of snow accumulation in the mountainous part of the basin. According to the GEM model, snow storages were overestimated by 10–25%. When calculating with use of the GFS model data, a lot of local maximums and minimums are detected in the field of snow storages, which are not confirmed by the data of weather stations. The main sources of uncertainty in the calculation are possible systematic errors in the numerical forecasts of precipitation, as well as the empirical coefficients used in the calculation of the intensity of snowmelt and evaporation from the snow cover surface.

scholarly journals Modeling Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent Distribution and Variation Characteristics in the Irtysh River Basin, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 8365
Author(s):  
Liming Gao ◽  
Lele Zhang ◽  
Yongping Shen ◽  
Yaonan Zhang ◽  
Minghao Ai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Implicit Scheme ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Irtysh River ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Irtysh River

Accurate simulation of snow cover process is of great significance to the study of climate change and the water cycle. In our study, the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) and ERA-Interim were used as driving data to simulate the dynamic changes in snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Irtysh River Basin from 2000 to 2018 using the Noah-MP land surface model, and the simulation results were compared with the gridded dataset of snow depth at Chinese meteorological stations (GDSD), the long-term series of daily snow depth dataset in China (LSD), and China’s daily snow depth and snow water equivalent products (CSS). Before the simulation, we compared the combinations of four parameterizations schemes of Noah-MP model at the Kuwei site. The results show that the rainfall and snowfall (SNF) scheme mainly affects the snow accumulation process, while the surface layer drag coefficient (SFC), snow/soil temperature time (STC), and snow surface albedo (ALB) schemes mainly affect the melting process. The effect of STC on the simulation results was much higher than the other three schemes; when STC uses a fully implicit scheme, the error of simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent is much greater than that of a semi-implicit scheme. At the basin scale, the accuracy of snow depth modeled by using CMFD and ERA-Interim is higher than LSD and CSS snow depth based on microwave remote sensing. In years with high snow cover, LSD and CSS snow depth data are seriously underestimated. According to the results of model simulation, it is concluded that the snow depth and snow water equivalent in the north of the basin are higher than those in the south. The average snow depth, snow water equivalent, snow days, and the start time of snow accumulation (STSA) in the basin did not change significantly during the study period, but the end time of snow melting was significantly advanced.

Future Climate Change Impacts on Snow and Water Resources of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 473-496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siraj ul Islam ◽  
Stephen J. Déry ◽  
Arelia T. Werner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
British Columbia ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Fraser River

Abstract Changes in air temperature and precipitation can modify snowmelt-driven runoff in snowmelt-dominated regimes. This study focuses on climate change impacts on the snow hydrology of the Fraser River basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Statistically downscaled forcing datasets based on 12 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to drive VIC for two 30-yr time periods, a historical baseline (1980–2009) and future projections (2040–69: 2050s), under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The ensemble-based VIC simulations reveal widespread and regionally coherent spatial changes in snowfall, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow cover over the FRB by the 2050s. While the mean precipitation is projected to increase slightly, the fraction of precipitation falling as snow is projected to decrease by nearly 50% in the 2050s compared to the baseline. Snow accumulation and snow-covered area are projected to decline substantially across the FRB, particularly in the Rocky Mountains. Onset of springtime snowmelt in the 2050s is projected to be nearly 25 days earlier than historically, yielding more runoff in the winter and spring for the Fraser River at Hope, BC, and earlier recession to low-flow volumes in summer. The ratio of snowmelt contribution to runoff decreases by nearly 20% in the Stuart and Nautley subbasins of the FRB in the 2050s. The decrease in SWE and loss of snow cover is greater from low to midelevations than in high elevations, where temperatures remain sufficiently cold for precipitation to fall as snow.

The Bordeaux Automatic Meridian Circle

1978 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 227-228
Author(s):  
Y. Requième
Keyword(s):  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Meridian Circle ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Full Automation

In spite of important delays in the initial planning, the full automation of the Bordeaux meridian circle is progressing well and will be ready for regular observations by the middle of the next year. It is expected that the mean square error for one observation will be about ±0.”10 in the two coordinates for declinations up to 87°.

Limit tolerances for sums of measurement errors

2018 ◽  
Vol 934 (4) ◽  
pp. 59-62
Author(s):  
V.I. Salnikov
Keyword(s):  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Gaussian Distribution ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Limiting Values ◽  
Limiting Value

The question of calculating the limiting values of residuals in geodesic constructions is considered in the case when the limiting value for measurement errors is assumed equal to 3m, ie ∆рred = 3m, where m is the mean square error of the measurement. Larger errors are rejected. At present, the limiting value for the residual is calculated by the formula 3m√n, where n is the number of measurements. The article draws attention to two contradictions between theory and practice arising from the use of this formula. First, the formula is derived from the classical law of the normal Gaussian distribution, and it is applied to the truncated law of the normal distribution. And, secondly, as shown in [1], when ∆рred = 2m, the sums of errors naturally take the value equal to ?pred, after which the number of errors in the sum starts anew. This article establishes its validity for ∆рred = 3m. A table of comparative values of the tolerances valid and recommended for more stringent ones is given. The article gives a graph of applied and recommended tolerances for ∆рred = 3m.

scholarly journals IndoorPlant: A Model for Intelligent Services in Indoor Agriculture Based on Context Histories

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1631
Author(s):  
Bruno Guilherme Martini ◽  
Gilson Augusto Helfer ◽  
Jorge Luis Victória Barbosa ◽  
Regina Célia Espinosa Modolo ◽  
Marcio Rosa da Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Technology Acceptance ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Ease Of Use ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Square Root ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Use Context ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Acceptance Model ◽  
The Internet Of Things

The application of ubiquitous computing has increased in recent years, especially due to the development of technologies such as mobile computing, more accurate sensors, and specific protocols for the Internet of Things (IoT). One of the trends in this area of research is the use of context awareness. In agriculture, the context involves the environment, for example, the conditions found inside a greenhouse. Recently, a series of studies have proposed the use of sensors to monitor production and/or the use of cameras to obtain information about cultivation, providing data, reminders, and alerts to farmers. This article proposes a computational model for indoor agriculture called IndoorPlant. The model uses the analysis of context histories to provide intelligent generic services, such as predicting productivity, indicating problems that cultivation may suffer, and giving suggestions for improvements in greenhouse parameters. IndoorPlant was tested in three scenarios of the daily life of farmers with hydroponic production data that were obtained during seven months of cultivation of radicchio, lettuce, and arugula. Finally, the article presents the results obtained through intelligent services that use context histories. The scenarios used services to recommend improvements in cultivation, profiles and, finally, prediction of the cultivation time of radicchio, lettuce, and arugula using the partial least squares (PLS) regression technique. The prediction results were relevant since the following values were obtained: 0.96 (R2, coefficient of determination), 1.06 (RMSEC, square root of the mean square error of calibration), and 1.94 (RMSECV, square root of the mean square error of cross validation) for radicchio; 0.95 (R2), 1.37 (RMSEC), and 3.31 (RMSECV) for lettuce; 0.93 (R2), 1.10 (RMSEC), and 1.89 (RMSECV) for arugula. Eight farmers with different functions on the farm filled out a survey based on the technology acceptance model (TAM). The results showed 92% acceptance regarding utility and 98% acceptance for ease of use.

Burst Erasures and the Mean-Square Error for Cyclic Parseval Frames

2011 ◽  
Vol 57 (7) ◽  
pp. 4622-4635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernhard G. Bodmann ◽  
Pankaj K. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Parseval Frames ◽  
The Mean

A MODIFIED RATIO TYPE ESTIMATOR OF FINITE POPULATION MEAN UNDER STRATIFIED RANDOM SAMPLING SCHEME

2021 ◽  
pp. 58-60
Author(s):  
Naziru Fadisanku Haruna ◽  
Ran Vijay Kumar Singh ◽  
Samsudeen Dahiru
Keyword(s):  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Minimum Mean Square Error ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Auxiliary Variable ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Population Mean ◽  
The Mean

In This paper a modied ratio-type estimator for nite population mean under stratied random sampling using single auxiliary variable has been proposed. The expression for mean square error and bias of the proposed estimator are derived up to the rst order of approximation. The expression for minimum mean square error of proposed estimator is also obtained. The mean square error the proposed estimator is compared with other existing estimators theoretically and condition are obtained under which proposed estimator performed better. A real life population data set has been considered to compare the efciency of the proposed estimator numerically.

scholarly journals Comparing plastic syringes and disposable columns to extract n-alkanes in forage and concentrate feeds

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 1844-1847 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimas Estrasulas de Oliveira ◽  
Luis Orlindo Tedeschi
Keyword(s):  
Gas Chromatography ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Carbon Chain ◽  
Carbon Chain Length ◽  
Square Root ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Alternative Material ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Disposable Plastic

Saturated aliphatic hydrocarbons (n-alkanes) were extracted from feed, orts, and bovine fecal samples using disposable, plastic 5mL-syringes as an alternative material to disposable columns, which are normally used in the liquid-solid extraction phase of n-alkanes. For both methods, the n-alkane extracts (carbon chain length between 31 and 36 atoms) were identified using gas chromatography. The linear regression between methods were: 1) feces: column Alkane=2.63+0.92×syringeAlkane [r²=0.94, square root of the mean square error (RMSE)=13.7mg kg-1, n=30] from which the intercept and the slope did not simultaneously differ from zero and unity (P>0.05), respectively; 2) feeds: column Alkane=0.36+1.12×syringeAlkane (r²=0.85, RMSE=1.9mg kg-1, n=21) from which the intercept and the slope did not simultaneously differ from zero and unity (P>0.05), respectively; 3) orts: column Alkane=0.49+0.92×syringeAlkane (r²=0.98, RMSE=1.2mg kg-1, n=15) from which the intercept and the slope did not simultaneously differ from zero and unity (P>0.05), respectively. Materials with low concentration of n-alkanes may affect the values obtained in both methods. These results suggested that disposable plastic syringes might be a viable alternative to columns thus, reducing analytical costs.

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