scholarly journals SISTEM PREDIKSI TINGKAT KRIMINALITAS MENGGUNAKAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: STUDI KASUS PADA POLRES KABUPATEN PROBOLINGGO

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-178
Author(s):  
Arwin Datumaya Wahyudi Sumari ◽  
Ricky Yulian Adi Pratama ◽  
Odhitya Desta Triswidrananta
Keyword(s):  
Crime Rate ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Motor Vehicle Theft ◽  
Rate Prediction ◽  
Action Type ◽  
Reasonable Prediction

Criminality is all forms of action and conduct that violate the law as well social and religious norms that are detrimental to the society both economically and psychologically. The emergence of verious crime forms with new dimension recently shows that the criminality is always developing. In the effort to reduce the increase of the crime rate, a crime action prediction system is needed to anticipate the future. In this research a crime rate prediction system based in the types of criminal action using Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) method has been developed, and the prediction  accuracy of the system is measured by using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method with a case study on Resort Police of Kabupaten Probolinggo, East Jawa. From the conducted test, obtained results MAPE score of  theft by weighting (Curat) type is 7% or Very Accurate prediction criterion. MAPE score for crime action type Others, motor vehicle theft (Curanmor), Destruction, and Fraud are 9.8%, 14.4%, 13.6%, and 16%, or Good prediction criterion. For crime action type Beatings, violent theft (Curas), severe persecution (Anirat), Murder, and Thief each one has MAPE score 23.2%, 31.2%, 21.2%, 33.2%, and 50%, or Reasonable prediction criterion, while MAPE score for Animal Theft is 92% or Inaccurate prediction criterion. In general, the criminality rate prediction system using TES method that has been developed for the case study on Resort Police of Kabupaten Probolinggo obtains MAPE score 28,3% or Reasonable prediction criterion.

scholarly journals Designing Motorcycle Safety System Using Fingerprint Sensor, SMS Gateway, and GPS Tracker Based on ATMega328

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-14
Author(s):  
Marhaposan Situmorang
Keyword(s):  
System Design ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Security System ◽  
Motor Vehicle Theft ◽  
Google Maps ◽  
Motorcycle Safety ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Fingerprint Sensor ◽  
Motorcycle Engine

A motorcycle security system has been designed using an ATMega328 microcontroller by applying fingerprint, SMS and GPS. The system consists of a GPS Module and a SIM Module. The system is designed to find the position of a stolen motorcycle via a Google Maps and create a security system on a motorcycle that uses a fingerprint sensor as a substitute for the key to turn on and turn off the motorcycle engine. ATMega328 is used as a processor, with additional GPS, GSM SIM 8000I, relay and buzzer. When a theft occurs, the system will send an SMS contained Google Maps link to the owner of the motorcycle. The results of the system design are expected to minimize the crime rate in motor vehicle theft cases.

Geographical Crime Rate Prediction System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sai Tarlekar ◽  
Rucha Bhosle ◽  
Elysia D'souza ◽  
Sana Sheikh
Keyword(s):  
Crime Rate ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Rate Prediction

scholarly journals How Well Does Western Environmental Theory Explain Crime in the Arabian Context? The Case Study of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-32
Author(s):  
Nawaf Ibrahim Alotaibi ◽  
Andrew J. Evans ◽  
Alison J. Heppenstall ◽  
Nicolas S. Malleson
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Routine Activity Theory ◽  
Routine Activity ◽  
Environmental Criminology ◽  
Motor Vehicle Theft ◽  
Pattern Theory

Crime within Arabic countries is significantly different from Western crime in type, frequency, and motivation. For example, motor vehicle theft (MVT) has constituted the largest proportion of property crime incidents in Saudi Arabia (SA) for decades. This is in stark contrast to Western countries where burglary and street theft dominate. Environmental criminology theories, such as routine activity theory and crime pattern theory, have the potential to help to investigate Arabic crime. However, there is no research that has sought to evaluate the validity of these theories within such a different cultural context. This article represents a first step in addressing this substantial research gap, taking MVT within SA as a case study. We evaluate previous MVT studies using an environmental criminology approach with a critical view to applying environmental criminology to an Arabic context. The article identifies a range of key features in SA that are different from typical Western contexts. These differences could limit the appropriateness of existing methodologies used to apply environmental criminology. The study also reveals that the methodologies associated with traditional environmental crime theory need adjusting more generally when working with MVT, not least to account for shifts in the location of opportunities for crime with time.

Research on SVM Line Loss Rate Prediction Based on Heuristic Algorithm

2013 ◽  
Vol 291-294 ◽  
pp. 2164-2168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Tian ◽  
Qiang Qiang Wang ◽  
An Zhao Cao
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Heuristic Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector Machine Model ◽  
Loss Rate ◽  
Heuristic Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Machine Model ◽  
Rate Prediction ◽  
Line Loss

With the characteristic of line loss volatility, a research of line loss rate prediction was imperatively carried out. Considering the optimization ability of heuristic algorithm and the regression ability of support vector machine, a heuristic algorithm-support vector machine model is constructed. Case study shows that, compared with other heuristic algorithms’, the search efficiency and speed of genetic algorithm are good, and the prediction model is with high accuracy.

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