Model-based sensitivity analysis of the Hungarian economy to macroeconomic shocks and uncertainties

2008 ◽  
Vol 58 (4) ◽  
pp. 367-401
Author(s):  
A. Bíró ◽  
P. Elek ◽  
J. Vincze
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Hungarian Academy ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
Wage Adjustment ◽  
Complex Relationships ◽  
Academy Of Sciences

In this paper we analyse the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy with the help of a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the building blocks of the model we investigate, within a scenario analysis, the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty — defined in a broad sense — are categorised into three groups: changes in the external environment (e.g. an adverse external business cycle shock or an exchange rate shock), uncertainties in the estimated behaviour of economic agents (e.g. in the speed of wage adjustment or in the extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (such as the increase of public sector wages). Taking into account the complex relationships between the various areas of the economy, we analyse the short and medium term consequences of such shocks and uncertainties on GDP, its components, the general government deficit and the public debt. We also show that the macroeconomic consequences of the uncertainties are not independent of each other: for instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.

Traditions of foreign countries studies in modern russian economic expertise

2015 ◽  
pp. 116-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kuznetsov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
International Relations ◽  
World Economy ◽  
International Studies ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Scientific Schools ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Modern Application ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
World Development

The article deals with Russian traditions of studies of foreign countries which have become an intellectual pillar for Russian economic expertise. The modern application of experience of Soviet scientific schools in international studies is shown, especially in the fields of world development forecasts, analysis of Russian foreign economic relations and research of economic policy abroad. The article is based on open sources with publications, reports and presentations about expert and analytical activities of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) and other institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences, VNIKI-Institute, MGIMO-University and some other centers. It is explained that results of international studies have become a necessary element for consulting of governmental bodies and businessmen in the epoch of globalization.

Conference Reports

2004 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-386
Author(s):  
Anita Pelle ◽  
László Jankovics
Keyword(s):  
Hungarian Academy ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Continuity And Change ◽  
Economic Association ◽  
Regional Committee ◽  
The University ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
European University

(1) The Halle Insitute for Economic Research (Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, IWH) in cooperation with the European University Viadrina, Frankfurt an der Oder held a conference on 13-14 May 2004 in Halle (Saale), Germany on Continuity and Change of Foreign Direct Investments in Central Eastern Europe. (Reviewed by Anita Pelle); (2) The University of Debrecen, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in cooperation with the Regional Committee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the Hungarian Economic Association organised an international symposium on the issue of Globalisation: Challenge or Threat for Emerging Economies on 29 April 2004 in Debrecen, Hungary. (Reviewed by László Jankovics)

Role of pulse oximetric monitoring during gastrointestinal endoscopy. Prospective multicenter study of the Gastroenterological Working Group of the Veszprém Regional Committee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (VEAB)

2013 ◽  
Vol 154 (21) ◽  
pp. 825-833
Author(s):  
Zoltán Döbrönte ◽  
Mária Szenes ◽  
Beáta Gasztonyi ◽  
Lajos Csermely ◽  
Márta Kovács ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Multicenter Study ◽  
Hungarian Academy ◽  
Prospective Multicenter Study ◽  
Standard Requirement ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
American Society ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Endoscopic Investigation

Introduction: Recent guidelines recommend routine pulse oximetric monitoring during endoscopy, however, this has not been the common practice yet in the majority of the local endoscopic units. Aims: To draw attention to the importance of the routine use of pulse oximetric recording during endoscopy. Method: A prospective multicenter study was performed with the participation of 11 gastrointestinal endoscopic units. Data of pulse oximetric monitoring of 1249 endoscopic investigations were evaluated, of which 1183 were carried out with and 66 without sedation. Results: Oxygen saturation less than 90% was observed in 239 cases corresponding to 19.1% of all cases. It occurred most often during endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (31.2%) and proximal enteroscopy (20%). Procedure-related risk factors proved to be the long duration of the investigation, premedication with pethidine (31.3%), and combined sedoanalgesia with pethidine and midazolam (34.38%). The age over 60 years, obesity, consumption of hypnotics or sedatives, severe cardiopulmonary state, and risk factor scores III and IV of the American Society of Anestwere found as patient-related risk factors. Conclusion: To increase the safety of patients undergoing endoscopic investigation, pulse oximeter and oxygen supplementation should be the standard requirement in all of the endoscopic investigation rooms. Pulse oximetric monitoring is advised routinely during endoscopy with special regard to the risk factors of hypoxemia. Orv. Hetil., 2013, 154, 825–833.

(Modeling the Effects of Economic Policy and Changes in the Behavior of Economic Agents)

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Viktorovna Bozhechkova ◽  
Natalya Vashelyuk ◽  
P. A. Nazarov ◽  
Yuri Perevyshin ◽  
Elena Alekseevna Tumanova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Agents

Trends in the European Monetary Union. An Overview

2021 ◽  
pp. 097215092110161
Author(s):  
Papageorgiou Christos ◽  
Anastasiou Athanasios ◽  
Liargovas Panagiotis
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
European Monetary Union ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
European Monetary ◽  
Member States ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Average Value ◽  
General Government ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Mean

Four indicators corresponding to the four targets of the European Monetary Union were calculated. The study showed that: (a) concerning the deviation of state’s general government deficit/surplus from 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), all member states had reached their target, with the exception of Cyprus, which was slightly under the target, (b) concerning the deviation of state’s general government debt from 60% of GDP, half of all European Union (EU) member states did not reach their targets, and there was a lot to be done, especially from the EU15 member states, (c) concerning the deviation of state’s inflation rate from the mean of the three states with best results of +1.5%, it was observed that the average value of EU28 member states had reached the final target, mainly due to the performances of the EU15 member states, (d) and concerning the deviation of state’s interest rate from the mean of the three states with the best results of +2%, it was observed that the average value of EU28 member states had reached the final target.

The origins of the Hungarian sword style

Antiquity ◽  
1977 ◽  
Vol 51 (203) ◽  
pp. 211-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miklós Szabó
Keyword(s):  
Fine Arts ◽  
Hungarian Academy ◽  
Museum Of Fine Arts ◽  
Academy Of Sciences

Dr Szabó, who is on the staff of the Hungarian Museum of Fine Arts, is by training a classical archaeologist and art historian. In recent years he has been concerned with a re-evaluation of eastern Celtic art and is one of the editors of the great newCorpus of Celtic Material in Hungarybeing prepared under the auspices of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. The text of Dr Szabó's paper was first delivered to the Vth International Celtic Congress held in Penzance in April 1975.

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