scholarly journals Análise empírica da volatilidade do etanol: aplicação de modelos ARCH nos preços à vista e futuros no período 2011-2015

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-128
Author(s):  
Ramon Rodrigues dos Santos

Esta pesquisa teve a finalidade de analisar a dinâmica e a transmissão da volatilidade dos preços à vista e futuros do etanol pelos modelos ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH e TARCH.  A amostra utilizada nesta pesquisa é composta pelas cotações diárias do etanol hidratado spot negociado na base de Paulínia (SP), disponibilizadas pelo CEPEA/ESALQ e das cotações futuro na CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) Denatured Fuel Ethanol Futures), no período de 03/10/2011 a 27/11/2015, em um total de 2.032 observações. Dentre os modelos analisados, destaca-se que os modelos EGARCH (2,2) para o spot e EGARCH (1,2) para o futuro são os que possuem o melhor ajustamento da série, considerado os Critérios de Informação de Akaike (AIC) e de Schwarz (SC), demonstrando um efeito assimetria principalmente na série de retornos futuros do etanol, e mostrando que os impactos resultantes dos choques positivos e negativos foram diferenciados na volatilidade, dentro do período analisado.

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 123
Author(s):  
Noryati Ahmad ◽  
Ahmad Danial Zainudin ◽  
Fahmi Abdul Rahim ◽  
Catherine S F Ho

Since its establishment, Crude Palm Oil futures contract (FCPO) has been used to directly hedge its physical crude palm oil (CPO). However, due to the excessive speculation activities on crude palm oil futures market, it has been said to be no longer an effective hedging tool to mitigate the price risk of its underlying physical market. This triggers the need for market players to find possible alternatives to ensure that the hedging role can be executed effectively. Thus this investigation attempts to examine whether other inter-related grains and oil seed futures contracts could serve as effective cross-hedging mechanisms for the CPO. Weekly data of inter-related futures contracts from Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) are employed to cross hedge the physical crude palm oil prices. The study starts from 2006 until 2016. Empirical results indicate that FCPO is still the best futures contract for hedging purposes while Chicago Soybean (CBOTBO) provides second best alternative if cross-hedging is considered. Keywords: Crude palm oil, Crude palm oil futures, Cross Hedging, Optimal Hedge Ratio, Effective Hedging


2007 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 209-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
MINZHE AN ◽  
YUEQIN TANG ◽  
SHIGERU MORIMURA ◽  
KENJI KIDA

2012 ◽  
Vol 160 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 229-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Shen ◽  
Jin-Song Guo ◽  
You-Peng Chen ◽  
Hai-Dong Zhang ◽  
Xu-Xu Zheng ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 97 (12) ◽  
pp. 1299-1308
Author(s):  
Robert A. Moreau ◽  
Megan E. Sharma ◽  
Alberto Nuñez ◽  
Charles A. Mullen ◽  
Michael J. Powell ◽  
...  

Fermentation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Catarina M. de Figueiredo ◽  
Daniella H. Hock ◽  
Débora Trichez ◽  
Maria de Lourdes B. Magalhães ◽  
Mario L. Lopes ◽  
...  

Many contaminant yeast strains that survive inside fuel ethanol industrial vats show detrimental cell surface phenotypes. These harmful effects may include filamentation, invasive growth, flocculation, biofilm formation, and excessive foam production. Previous studies have linked some of these phenotypes to the expression of FLO genes, and the presence of gene length polymorphisms causing the expansion of FLO gene size appears to result in stronger flocculation and biofilm formation phenotypes. We performed here a molecular analysis of FLO1 and FLO11 gene polymorphisms present in contaminant strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae from Brazilian fuel ethanol distilleries showing vigorous foaming phenotypes during fermentation. The size variability of these genes was correlated with cellular hydrophobicity, flocculation, and highly foaming phenotypes in these yeast strains. Our results also showed that deleting the primary activator of FLO genes (the FLO8 gene) from the genome of a contaminant and highly foaming industrial strain avoids complex foam formation, flocculation, invasive growth, and biofilm production by the engineered (flo8∆::BleR/flo8Δ::kanMX) yeast strain. Thus, the characterization of highly foaming yeasts and the influence of FLO8 in this phenotype open new perspectives for yeast strain engineering and optimization in the sugarcane fuel-ethanol industry.


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