scholarly journals Projected shortfall in personal income tax revenues of regional governments in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-54
Author(s):  
M. O. Kakaulina ◽  

The COVID-19 pandemic has put a great strain on the Russian economy and budget revenue. The study aims at furnishing an estimate of losses in personal income tax revenue in regional government budgets in 2020–2023 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to investigate the shortfall in tax revenues, three factors were studied: the amount of damage caused by the COVID-19 outbreak to the whole economic system; the sensitivity of the state revenue base to the crisis; the sensitivity of regional tax revenue to the revenue base. The study was based on the annual reports of the Federal Tax Service of Russia, Rosstat data, Forecast of the Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation, and data from the “National action plan to ensure the recovery of employment and incomes of population, economic growth and long-term structural changes in the economy”. It was found that recession will lead to a significant reduction in people’s income over the given period. As a result, personal income tax revenues will decrease. The budget losses will reach 416.6 billion rubles by the end of the 2020 fiscal year. This is equivalent to 0.4% of GDP and 9.7% of total income from personal income tax in an economic situation unmarred by the pandemic. The largest fall in public revenue is expected in the regions which stand out in regard to personal income tax revenues per capita. The research results confirm the initial hypothesis that the negative impact of the pandemic on personal income tax revenues depends on the share of income tax revenues of a particular region or municipality. The findings can be used by the regional and municipal financial authorities for developing draft budgets for 2022 and the planning period of 2023–2024.

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 190-203
Author(s):  
M. O. Kakaulina ◽  

One of the reasons behind declining budget revenues can be external migration. This article aims to describe the methodology for estimation of tax losses and revenues from international labor migration for specific types of taxes. Changes in personal income tax revenues are estimated by using the data on the number of labor emigrants (immigrants) for specific occupations, nominal gross monthly wage of employees in this occupation in Russia, standard child tax deductions and the corresponding personal income tax rate for residents (non-residents). Changes in VAT and excise tax revenues caused by the current trends in labor migration are estimated in accordance with the structure of household consumption. The amount of tax revenues (and losses) is calculated as the product of the sum of VAT and excise tax payments made by one member of a household per year when buying goods, works and services on the territory of Russia, and the number of emigrants (or immigrants). The research uses the data provided by Rosstat, Federal Tax Service of Russia and the Analytical Centre under the Government of the Russian Federation for 2012–2017. The conclusion is made that international migration has a negative impact on the tax revenues of the country’s consolidated state budget. Although, throughout the whole of the given period, the balance of additional revenues from VAT, excise taxes and the personal income tax (PIT) on earned income and budget losses from these taxes remained positive, in absolute terms, this balance decreased significantly. Trends in international labor migration affected the balance of tax losses and revenues. Therefore, the government’s attempts to target international labor migration by reforming the tax legislation seem quite reasonable: the upcoming tax reforms will include the introduction of the concept ‘centre of vital interests’ as the second criterion of residence and equalization of the PIT rate for tax residents and non-residents. The proposed methodology can thus prove to be an effective tool for the Federal Tax Service of Russia to estimate the resulting changes in tax revenues as well as other changes related to labor migration processes.


Author(s):  
О. Boiko

Problem setting. In the analysis of any budget, important markers are åðó revenue indicators, which 80% consist of tax revenues. After all, they give the government and citizens an understanding of how capable the communityis, what amount of expenditures can be made from income, and whether the community has can develop and improve the well-being of its inhabitants. Personal income tax (hereinafter – PIT) covers about 60% of tax revenues of local budgets of Ukraine, so its important role for socio-economic development of local communities and regionsis clear.Recent research and publications analysis. The issue of studyingthe effectiveness of the mechanism of PIT payment and its influence on the process of generation of local government revenues have been in the center of research of domestic scientists such as O. Bandurka, N. Dieieva, I. Liutyi, N. Redinaet al. At the same time, the issue of the effectiveness of PIT collection and its importance for the development of communities in the current conditions of decentralization requires further thorough research.Highlighting previously unsettled parts of the general problem. The role and place of personal income tax in the structure of tax revenues of local budgets have been studies in the paper, the essence of the mechanism of its collectionhas been substantiated, the provision on the effectiveness of tax control over the completeness of its revenues have been analyzedand the reasons for reforming its payment procedure by tax agents have been justified.The purpose of the paper is to study the role and place of PIT in the structure of tax revenues of local budgets, substantiate the essence of the mechanism of its collection, analyze PIT administration procedure, makeproposals for improving the effectivenessof fiscal role of this tax for the community development.Paper main body. One of the most important taxes in the system of direct taxation in Ukraine is the personal income tax. Its share in the structure of tax revenues of the consolidated budget in recent years was about 20% – 23% (90% of which – revenues to local budgets, 10% – revenues of the state budget).The procedure for imposition of this taxis regulated by Section IV of the Tax Code of Ukraine, deducted from the income of citizens at a rate of 18%, which applies to almost all types of income of citizens.In the structure of tax revenues of local budgets, its share is the largest one and averages up to 60% of all tax revenues. During the period of 2015 – 2020, the fiscal efficiency of PIT in the structure of its revenues to local budgets was growing every year. Nominal PIT revenues to local budgets increased from UAH 54,9 billion in 2015 to UAH 177,8 billion in 2020.The key factors influencing the nominal growth of personal income tax revenues are inflation, as well as the annual increase in the minimum wage, changes in tax rates and other innovations in tax reforms of the recent years.Given the significant fiscal efficiency of PIT and its influence on budget generation of the communities, we cannot ignore the problematic aspects of its collection that have a direct impact on tax revenues in the structure of the newly formed amalgamated territorial communities, since success and well-being of local communities depends primarily on the amount of financial resources they own.Thus, according to the Budget Code of Ukraine, PITis distributed among the budgets in the following amounts: 60% goes to the ATC budget, 15% to the regional budget, and 25% to the state budget.It is worthnoting that the current rules of tax and budget legislation contain quite clear obligations of tax agents to pay PITtransfers to those local budgets within which territory businesses are located.Nevertheless, there are constant challenges for local governments and their ability to influence entrepreneurs to pay PIT at the location of legal entities and their units, and not at the place of registration of legal entities.Does this mean that a significant number of tax agents do not comply with the requirements of tax and budget legislation?The Law of Ukraine on Local Self-Government in Ukraine (Article 28) entitles local self-government bodies to monitor the compliance with obligations to pay to the local budget at enterprises and organizations, regardless of the form of their incorporation.Conclusions of the research and prospects for further studies. Given the above, business entities are obliged to pay PIT in accordance with current legislation at the place of their actual location, regardless of the place of registration, and local governments are empowered to control the completeness of taxes coming to the local budget and must actively exercise the initiative to provide additional revenues to community budgets.This will allow receiving PIT revenues to the budget of the community where the enterprises directly carry out their activities in order to develop communities and increase their solvency for the welfare of citizens.


1944 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 325-330
Author(s):  
Roy G. Blakey ◽  
Gladys C. Blakey

The Revenue Act of 1943 will be remembered not only as the first one in history to be vetoed by the President, but also as the cause of an outburst in Congress against the executive capable of affecting the fortunes of the Democratic party in the 1944 elections. The significance of this last act in the drama (to date) may be clarified if we review the fiscal situation of the United States at the time, the Administration's tax proposals, and the revenue legislation actually resulting.In January, 1943, the President's budget message estimated expenditures of $100 billion for the fiscal year ending June 30, 1944. Tax revenues for the same period were estimated at $35 billion. The President made three recommendations: (1) raise $16 billion in new tax revenue, or savings, or both, (2) simplify the income tax, and (3) put taxes on a pay-as-you-go basis. In the summer and fall of 1943, Congress enacted legislation to carry out certain parts of the last two proposals. Public discussion had forced on it some consideration of collecting taxes currently.


2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branimir Kalaš ◽  
Vera Mirović ◽  
Jelena Andrašić

AbstractIn a research paper, the authors provide an empirical approach to taxes and economic growth in the United States in the period 1996-2016. The basic goal is to explore how taxes affect economic growth. The subject of the research is measuring the effects of tax revenue growth and tax form as a personal income tax, corporate income tax and social security contributions on gross domestic product as a proxy for economic growth. Methodology framework includes several tests to clear the potential problem of heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, multicollinearity and specification of the model. Based on diagnostic tests, a regression model is adequately created where fundamental econometric procedures are applied. Correlation matrix reflects a strong and positive relationship between tax revenue growth and corporate income tax on the one side and gross domestic product growth, on the another side. Also, personal income tax and social security contributions are weakly related to gross domestic product growth. The model shows a significant effect of tax revenue growth and social security contributions, while personal income tax and corporate income tax do not have a significant impact on gross domestic product growth. Interestingly, personal income tax as the main tax form in the tax structure of the United States has no significant impact on economic growth compared to social security contributions which percentage share is lesser.


2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-31
Author(s):  
Patar Simamora ◽  
Deni Suryaman

ABSTRACTTax is one source of state revenue is used to finance the household of the State and individual taxpayerswho have responsible as a taxpayer who will increase the number of admissions personal income tax, butit does not increase the acceptance of personal income tax, when in reality the level of complianceindividual taxpayers still perceived remains low during this time. The goals to be achieved is to determinethe Effect of Individual Taxpayer Compliance on the Personal Income Tax Revenue on KPP PratamaCibinong. The method I use is descriptive analysis method which defines Effect of Individual TaxpayerCompliance to the Personal Income Tax Revenue on KPP Pratama Cibinong. Based on the research thathas been done, the writer can conclude that the level of the individual taxpayer Kepatuihan effect onPersonal Income Tax Revenue In KPP Pratama Cibinong.Keywords: Level of Compliance, TIN Registered, submission of tax returns, Payment of Tax, Tax ReceiptsOP.


Author(s):  
Yun Fitriano ◽  
Febri Dwi Rimbawati

The purpose of this study is to determine the influence of Non-Taxable Income (PTKP) on Personal Income Tax Acceptance at Kantor Pelayanan Pajak Pratama Argamakmur. PTKP is a certain amount of income that is not taxable which can reduce the amount of personal income tax revenue. The method used in this research is to use data collection method of documentation and analysis method used is descriptive quantitative. The analysis in this study uses a simple linear regression formula and coefficient of determination with the help of SPSS application. And to prove the effect of Non-Taxable Income (PTKP) on Personal Income Tax Acceptance then used hypothesis test (t test).The results of the simple linear regression data data of Y = 9461924484.969 - 1054.200 (X) and data analysis using the determination coefficient is 0.106 with the contribution of the variable non-taxable income (X) to the receipt of personal income tax is 10.6%, while the rest is influenced by other variables not examined in this study. From the results of the data processing, the value of t-count is -2,010 and the value of t-table is 1.305. if the two values are compared, then the t count is -2.010 ≤ t table 1.305 which means that the Non-Taxable Income has a significant negative effect on the Personal Income Tax Revenue.


2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Evi Malia ◽  
Qoyyimah ,

This research aims to determine whether the increase in taxable income were able to increase tax revenues and tax growth in KPP Pratama Pamekasan. By using quantitative descriptive method, through data collection documentation and interviews obtained by the results of research that changes in taxable income in 2013 (PTKP increased) is not able to increase the acceptance of personal income tax, while in 2014 to 2015 (PTKP fixed) able to increase tax revenues in KPP Pratama Pamekasan. This happens when a growing number of employees / workers who have income above taxable income, the increase in taxable income increasingly not lead to a reduction of the income PPh 21 in KPP pratama Pamekasan, but it also salary increases with the increase in UMK (District Minimum Wage), due to increased salaries and increase in UMK that happens nearly every year, while the increase in taxable income only occurs every few years.As for the required growth is the increase in taxable income Personal Income able to increase the growth of individual taxpayer on KPP Pratama Pamekasan, because the growth of the taxpayer beginning in 2011-2015 are likely to continue to rise although not so significant .taxpayers growth who register on KPP Pratama Pamekasan caused by people who want to get the benefit of having a NPWP. Key Word: PTKP, Personal Growth taxpayer, the individual taxpayer Revenue, Income PPh 21


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