Using ecological niche models to predict the impact of global climate change on the geographical distribution and productivity of Euterpe oleracea Mart. (Arecaceae) in the Amazon

Abstract A detailed understanding of species’ responses to global climate change provides an informative baseline for designing conservation strategies to optimize protection of biodiversity. However, such information is either limited or not available for many tropical species, making it difficult to incorporate climate change into conservation planning for most tropical species. Here, we used correlative ecological niche models to assess potential distributional responses of 3 range-restricted West African birds, Timneh Parrot (Pscittacus erithracus timneh), Ballman’s Malimbe (Malimbus ballmanni), and White-necked Rockfowl (Picathartes gymnocephalus), to global climate change. We used primary biodiversity occurrence records for each species obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, eBird, and VertNet; for environmental data, we used climatic variables for the present and future, the latter characterized by 2 IPCC representative concentration pathways (4.5, 8.5) future emissions scenarios and 27 general circulation models for a 2050 time horizon. We found broad present-day potential distributions with respect to climate for all 3 species. Future potential distributions for Ballman’s Malimbe and White-necked Rockfowl tended to be stable and closely similar to their present-day distributions; by contrast, we found marked climate change–driven potential range loss across the range of Timneh Parrot. Our results suggest that impacts of climate change on the present distributions of West African birds will in some cases be minimal, but that individual species may respond differently to future conditions. Thus, to optimize conservation of these species, and of bird diversity in general, we recommend that regional-to-national species conservation action plans incorporate climate change adaptation strategies for individual species; ecological niche models could provide an informative baseline information for this planning and prioritization.

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Impacto del cambio climático en la distribución potencial de tres cultivos agrícolas en México

Acta Agrícola y Pecuaria ◽

10.30973/aap/2021.7.0071015 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Daniela A. Rivera-Aguirre ◽

Miguel A. Ortiz- Acosta ◽

Héctor Bernal-Mendoza ◽

Gerardo Sánchez-Rojas ◽

O. Eric Ramírez-Bravo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Exotic Species ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

General Circulation ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Agricultural Systems ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

The Impact ◽

Niche Models

Agricultural systems are highly susceptible to climate change; however, little is known about the vulnerability of native or exotic species. In this work, we evaluated the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of three species of agricultural interest native to Mexico (cotton, peanut, and cocoa), through ecological niche models looking at the year 2050. According to the 22 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), 4.5 and 8.5, we found increases in the potential distribution of the three species. The species with the greatest increase is cotton, finding conditions in the future in states such as Tabasco or throughout the Yucatan Peninsula.

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Modeling the impact of climate change on wild Piper nigrum (Black Pepper) in Western Ghats, India using ecological niche models

Journal of Plant Research ◽

10.1007/s10265-016-0859-3 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 129 (6) ◽

pp. 1033-1040 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Sandeep Sen ◽

Ameya Gode ◽

Srirama Ramanujam ◽

G. Ravikanth ◽

N. A. Aravind

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Western Ghats ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Black Pepper ◽

Piper Nigrum ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact ◽

Niche Models

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The potential distribution of the Vulnerable African lion Panthera leo in the face of changing global climate

Oryx ◽

10.1017/s0030605312000919 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 48 (4) ◽

pp. 555-564 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

A. Townsend Peterson ◽

Thomas Radocy ◽

Erin Hall ◽

Julian C. Kerbis Peterhans ◽

Gastone G. Celesia

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Predictive Ability ◽

Panthera Leo ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

African Lion ◽

The Face ◽

Niche Models

AbstractThe objective of this study is to estimate possible impacts of global climate change on the geographical distribution of the African lion Panthera leo in the coming decades. Current lion population occurrence data across Africa and distributions of lions in historical times (6,000–100 years before present) were obtained from the literature and integrated with data on present-day climates to generate ecological niche models. Models based on distributions of African lions were tested for predictive ability based on various subsetting approaches and were projected across Asia, Africa and Europe, to retrodict the distribution of the species for the past 6,000 years. These models were highly accurate, giving confidence in future projections. Future potential distributions were predicted by projecting ecological niche models onto three climate scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions based on eight climate models for the years 2040–2070. The prediction was of relative range stability into the future: few new areas were identified as becoming suitable for the species but large areas of southern Africa and West Africa are expected to become less suitable. Predictions of effects of climate change on potential distributions of lions may assist conservation efforts by clarifying options for mitigation and response.

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Response of altitudinal vegetation belts of the Tianshan Mountains in northwestern China to climate change during 1989–2015

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-84399-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Yong Zhang ◽

Lu-yu Liu ◽

Yi Liu ◽

Man Zhang ◽

Cheng-bang An

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Animal Husbandry ◽

Forest Tree ◽

Tianshan Mountains ◽

Northwestern China ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Altitudinal Belts ◽

The Impact

AbstractWithin the mountain altitudinal vegetation belts, the shift of forest tree lines and subalpine steppe belts to high altitudes constitutes an obvious response to global climate change. However, whether or not similar changes occur in steppe belts (low altitude) and nival belts in different areas within mountain systems remain undetermined. It is also unknown if these, responses to climate change are consistent. Here, using Landsat remote sensing images from 1989 to 2015, we obtained the spatial distribution of altitudinal vegetation belts in different periods of the Tianshan Mountains in Northwestern China. We suggest that the responses from different altitudinal vegetation belts to global climate change are different. The changes in the vegetation belts at low altitudes are spatially different. In high-altitude regions (higher than the forest belts), however, the trend of different altitudinal belts is consistent. Specifically, we focused on analyses of the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on the nival belts, desert steppe belts, and montane steppe belts. The results demonstrated that the temperature in the study area exhibited an increasing trend, and is the main factor of altitudinal vegetation belts change in the Tianshan Mountains. In the context of a significant increase in temperature, the upper limit of the montane steppe in the eastern and central parts will shift to lower altitudes, which may limit the development of local animal husbandry. The montane steppe in the west, however, exhibits the opposite trend, which may augment the carrying capacity of pastures and promote the development of local animal husbandry. The lower limit of the nival belt will further increase in all studied areas, which may lead to an increase in surface runoff in the central and western regions.

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Dynamic Downscaling of the Impact of Climate Change on the Ocean Circulation in the Galápagos Archipelago

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2013/837432 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2013 ◽

pp. 1-18 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Yanyun Liu ◽

Lian Xie ◽

John M. Morrison ◽

Daniel Kamykowski

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ocean Circulation ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Ocean Model ◽

Reanalysis Dataset ◽

Equatorial Undercurrent ◽

Galapagos Archipelago ◽

The Impact

The regional impact of global climate change on the ocean circulation around the Galápagos Archipelago is studied using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) configured for a four-level nested domain system. The modeling system is validated and calibrated using daily atmospheric forcing derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1951 to 2007. The potential impact of future anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the Galápagos region is examined using the calibrated HYCOM with forcing derived from the IPCC-AR4 climate model. Results show that although the oceanic variability in the entire Galápagos region is significantly affected by global climate change, the degree of such effects is inhomogeneous across the region. The upwelling region to the west of the Isabella Island shows relatively slower warming trends compared to the eastern Galápagos region. Diagnostic analysis suggests that the variability in the western Galápagos upwelling region is affected mainly by equatorial undercurrent (EUC) and Panama currents, while the central/east Galápagos is predominantly affected by both Peru and EUC currents. The inhomogeneous responses in different regions of the Galápagos Archipelago to future AGW can be explained by the incoherent changes of the various current systems in the Galápagos region as a result of global climate change.

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CLIMATE REFUGEES AS A NATURAL RESULT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

International scientific journal Internauka ◽

10.25313/2520-2057-2021-17-7737 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Viktoriia Sydorenko ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Natural Result ◽

The Impact ◽

Climate Refugees

This article is devoted to an overview of such a category of migrants as climate refugees. The author pays attention to the general characteristics of the impact of global climate change on migrants. Particular attention is paid to the disclosure of the term “climate refugee”, the reasons for the emergence of this category of people, as well as the problems of counting climate refugees. The author also provides examples for solving these problems.

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Garden Plants under Global Climate Change

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.937.663 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 937 ◽

pp. 663-668

Author(s):

Qiu Jing Li ◽

Xiao Li Hou ◽

Li Xue ◽

Hong Yue Chen ◽

Yun Ting Hao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Carbon Sink ◽

Global Climate ◽

Dominant Factor ◽

Plant Design ◽

Landscape Plant ◽

Garden Plants ◽

Mitigate Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Climate change refers to man-made changes in our climate, which is caused by changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. There is a lot of data coming from all over the world indicating that phenology of garden plants and biodiversity are being impacted by climate change. In the context of climate change, landscape plants can enhance carbon sink function, improve plant design, and mitigate climate change and so on. To determine the impact of these changes on garden plants, scientists would need to strengthen the study of garden plants under global climate change, including different garden type responses to climate change, invaliding species phenology study, extreme weather impacts on landscape plant phenology, the dominant factor of affecting garden plants in different regions, interactions of multiple environmental factors on influence mechanism of garden plants.

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